Introduction. The Post-Crimea Russia: Development Scenarios
Tis book is a new volume produced by the international team of experts that has been working on Russia development scenarios since 2007. In their previous work, Russia 2025: Scenarios for the Russian Future published in 2013, this group of researchers analyzed alternative paths for Russia’s development after Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin. However, the unexpected and rapid developments of February–March 2014 went far beyond the scenarios and analysis offered by our experts; the current trajectory appears to be worse than the worst-case scenario of the three that we considered. The Kremlin’s steps have radically changed our views of the present and future and called for revision of not only our scenarios, but also the underlying assumptions on their variance. Our experts had to approach their analysis from a different perspective and include completely different issues in it. In addition, the constantly accelerating pace of change necessitated limiting the analysis to a shorter timeframe.
KeywordsDevelopment Scenario Russian Society Short Timeframe International Team European Union Policy
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