Advertisement

Texas’ Education Challenge: A Demographic Dividend or Bust?

  • Marta Tienda
Chapter

Abstract

Texas is positioned to harness a demographic dividend—a productivity boost enabled by human capital investments in its outsized minority youth cohorts. To do so, I argue, Texas’ political leadership must act decisively and boldly to close achievement gaps along racial and ethnic lines and to raise college completion levels.

Drawing on selective national and international comparisons, I show that Texas is falling behind in college completion rates even as the statewide share of graduates continues to inch up. Racial and ethnic differentials are more troubling because the largest gaps correspond to the fast-growing Hispanic population. Underinvestment in higher education has created a college squeeze that will constrain Texas’ ability to harness a demographic dividend.

Keywords

Gross Domestic Product Human Capital Investment Human Capital Stock Demographic Dividend Education Challenge 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Center for Public Policy Priorities (2012), Texas Investment in Higher Education Lags behind Student Needs and Workforce Demands (Center for Public Policy Priorities and Demos, August).Google Scholar
  2. Combs, S. (2014), Workforce: Capitalizing on Our Human Assets, No. 96–1756 (Austin, Texas: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, July).Google Scholar
  3. Cox, W. M. and R. Alm (2001), “Taking Stock in America: Resiliency, Redundancy and Recovery in the U.S. Economy,” 2001 Annual Report (Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).Google Scholar
  4. Creusere, M., C. Fernandez, C. Fletcher, K. Klepfer, and E. Rice (2014), State of Student Aid and Higher Education in Texas (Round Rock, Texas: TG Research and Analytical Services).Google Scholar
  5. Finney, J. E., L. W. Perna, and P. M. Callan (2012), The Performance and State Policies of Higher Education in Texas: Insights from a Five-State Policy Review Project (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Graduate School of Education, National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education).Google Scholar
  6. — (2014), Renewing the Promise: State Policies to Improve Higher Education Performance (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Graduate School of Education, Institute for Research on Higher Education, Higher Education Policy Institute, February).Google Scholar
  7. Gordon, R. J. (2013), “The Great Stagnation of American Education,” The New York Times, September 7.Google Scholar
  8. Gribble, J. N. and J. Bremner (2012), “Achieving a Demographic Dividend,” Population Bulletin 67, No. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, December).Google Scholar
  9. Gumport, P. J., M. Iannozzi, S. Shaman, and R. Zemsky (1997), Trends in United States Higher Education from Massification to Post Massification, No. NCPI-1–04 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, National Center for Postsecondary Improvement).Google Scholar
  10. Leachman, M. and C. Mai (2014), Most States Funding Schools Less than before the Recession (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).Google Scholar
  11. Livingston, G. and D. Cohn (2012), U.S. Birth Rate Falls to a Record Low; Decline Is Greatest among Immigrants (Washington, DC: Pew Research Center).Google Scholar
  12. Lumina Foundation (2012), A Stronger Nation through Education (Indianapolis, IN: Lumina Foundation).Google Scholar
  13. Lutz, W. and S. KC (2011), “Global Human Capital: Integrating Education and Population,” Science 333 (6042): 587–592, doi:10.1126/science.1206964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Mackun, P. and S. Wilson (2011), Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010, No. C201 0BR-01 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau).Google Scholar
  15. Mather, M. and B. Jarosz (2014), “The Demography of Inequality in the United States,” Population Bulletin 69, No. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, November).Google Scholar
  16. Murdock, S. H., S. White, M. N. Hoque, B. Pecotte, X. You, and J. Balkan (2003), The New Texas Challenge—Population Change and the Future of Texas (College Station: Texas A&M University Press).Google Scholar
  17. National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education (2010), Measuring Up 2008: The National Report Card on Higher Education, National Center Report no. 08–4.Google Scholar
  18. National Research Council (1995), Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology, by the Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development (Washington, DC: National Academies Press).Google Scholar
  19. OECD (2012), Education at a Glance 2012: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, doi:10.1787/eag-2012–56-en.Google Scholar
  20. — (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
  21. — (2014), PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do: Student Performance in Mathematics, Reading and Science (vol. 1, revised edition, February 2014) OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
  22. Ogunwole, S. U, M. P. Drewery Jr., and M. Rios-Vargas (2012), The Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2006–2010, No. ACSBR/10–19 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, May).Google Scholar
  23. Perryman Group (2007), A Tale of Two States—and One Million jobs!!—An Analysis of the Economic Benefits of Achieving the Future Goals of the “Closing the Gaps” Initiative of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (Waco, TX: Perryman Group).Google Scholar
  24. Ross, J. (2004), Understanding the Demographic Dividend (Washington, DC: Policy Project, Futures Group).Google Scholar
  25. Ruggles, S., J. T. Alexander, K. Genadek, R. Goeken, M. B. Schroeder, and M. Sobek (2010), Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-Readable Database] (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota).Google Scholar
  26. Smith, M. (2014a), “Commitment in Texas to Fiscal Restraint Adds Burden for Education,” The New York Times, July 10.Google Scholar
  27. — (2014b), “Texas High School Graduation Rates Improving, Mysteriously,” The Texas Tribune, September 26.Google Scholar
  28. Strayhorn, C. K. (2005), The Impact of the State Higher Education System on the Texas Economy, no. 96–768, (Austin: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts).Google Scholar
  29. Texas Education Agency (2014), Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in Texas Public Schools.Google Scholar
  30. Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board [THECB] (2000), Closing the Gaps by 2015 (Austin: The Texas Higher Education Plan).Google Scholar
  31. — (2014). College for all Texans: Closing the Gaps: 2014 Progress Report.Google Scholar
  32. Tienda, M., and S. Alon (2007), “Diversity and the Demographic Dividend,” in The Price We Pay: Economic and Social Consequences of Inadequate Education, ed. C. Belfield and H. Levin (Washington, DC: Brookings), 48–73.Google Scholar
  33. Tienda, M. and F. Mitchell, eds., (2006), Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future (Washington, DC: National Academies Press).Google Scholar
  34. Tienda, M. and T. A. Sullivan (2009), “The Promise and Peril of the Texas Uniform Admission Law,” in The Next Twenty-Five Years: Affirmative Action in Higher Education in the United States and South Africa, ed. D. L. Featherman, M. Hall, and M. Krislov (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press), 155–174.Google Scholar
  35. US Census Bureau (1970), Educational Attainment: March 1970. Current Population Reports, Series P-20(207).Google Scholar
  36. WICHE (2013), “Demography as Destiny: Policy Considerations in Enrollment Management,” Policy Insights, no. 2A385 (Boulder, Colorado: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, April).Google Scholar
  37. You, H. and L. Potter (2014), Educational Attainment Projections of the Texas Civilian Workforce, 2011–2030, no. 14–001 (The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center at the University of Texas at San Antonio).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Marta Tienda

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations