Abstract
Validators should ensure that all model components and the related outputs have been thoroughly tested. Let us recall that the first of the BCBS (2005) validation principles is that “Validation is fundamentally about assessing the predictive ability of a bank’s risk estimates and the use of ratings in the credit process.” We will follow Tasche (2008) in interpreting this somewhat vague requirement as meaning that validators should examine PD models’ performance in terms of their discriminatory power and calibration.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Asuero, A.G., Sayago, A. and Gonzalez, A. G., “The Correlation Coefficient: An Overview, Critical Reviews,” Analytical Chemistry, Vol. 36, 41–59, 2006.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, “Supervisory Framework for the Use of ‘Backtesting’ in Conjunction with the Internal Models Approach to Market Risk Capital Requirements,” Basel, 1996.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, “Update on the work of the Accord Implementation Group related to validation under the Basel II Framework,” Basel, 2005.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, “Studies on the Validation of Internal Rating Systems,” Working Paper N. 14, Basel, 2005.
Bennett, D.A., “How Can I Deal with Missing Data in My Study?,” Amt. N. Z. J. Public Health, Vol. 25, No.5, 464–469, 2001.
Blochwitz, S., Liebig, T. and Nyberg, M., “Benchmarking Deutsche Bundesbank’s Default Risk Model, the KMV Private Firm Model and Common Financial Ratios for German Corporations,” presented in Bank for International Settlements: Research and Supervision: A Workshop on Applied Banking Research, Oslo, 12–13 June 2001.
Blochwitz, S., Martin, M. R. W and When, C. S., “Statistical Approaches to PD Validation,” in Engelmann B. and Rauhmeier R. (editors), “The Basel II Risk Parameters”, Second Edition, Springer, 2011.
Brier, G. W., “Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.” Monthly Weather Review, Vol.78, 1–3, 1950.
Cantor, R. and Mann, C., “Measuring The Performance Of Corporate Bond Ratings,” Special Comment, Moody’s, April 2003.
Capéraà, P. and Genest, C. “Spearman’s ρ Is Larger Than Kendall’s τ for Positively Dependent Random Variables,” J. Nonparametr. Statist., 2, 183–194, 1993.
Davison, A. C. and Hinkley, D. V., “Bootstrap Methods and their Application,” Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics (No. 1), 1997.
Engelmann, B., “Measures of Rating’s Discriminatory Power,” in Engelmann, B. and Rauhmeier, R. (editors), The Basel II Risk Parameters, Second Edition, Springer, 2011.
Fredricks, G A. and Nelsen, R. B., “On the relationship between Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau for pairs of continuous random variables,” Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 137, 2143–2150, 2007.
Gordy, M. B., “A Risk-Factor Model Foundation for Ratings-Based Capital Rules,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 22 October 2002.
Hosmer, D., Lemeshow, S. and Klar, J., “Goodness-of-Fit Testing for Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis When the Estimated probabilities are Small,” Biometrical Journal, Vol. 30, 911–924, 1988.
Pluto, K. and Tasche, D., Estimating Probabilities of Default for Low Default Portfolios, mimeo, Deutsche Bundesbank, 2005.
Rauhmeier, R., “PD Validation: Experience from Banking Practice,” in Engelmann B. and Rauhmeier R. (editors), The Basel II Risk Parameters, Second Edition, Springer, 2011.
Schafer JL. “Multiple Imputation: A Primer,” Stat. Methods in Med. 1999, Vol. 8, No. 1, 3–15, doi: 10.1191/096228099671525676.
Sobehart, J. R., Keenan, S. C. and Stein, R. M., “Benchmarking Quantitative Default Risk Models: A Validation Methodology,” Moody’s Investors Service, 2000.
Tabachnick, B. G. and Fidell, L. S., “Using Multivariate Statistics” 6th Edition, Pearson, 2012.
Tasche, D., “A Traffic Light Approach to PD Validation,” Deutsche Bundesbank Working paper, 2003.
Tasche, D., “Validation of Internal Rating Systems and PD Estimates,” in Christodoulakis, G. and Satchell, S. (editors), The Analytics of Risk Model Validation, Academic Press, 2008.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2016 Sergio Scandizzo
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Scandizzo, S. (2016). Probability of Default Models. In: The Validation of Risk Models. Applied Quantitative Finance series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137436962_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137436962_5
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-43695-5
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-43696-2
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)