Abstract
In this chapter, we pull together various building blocks of Chapters 2–5 and present an overall model of bubble formation, with special focus on the contagious, irrational, and punctured bubbles of the type that have taken massive economic and social tolls in the twentieth century and that continue to threaten the economic and social well-being of people the world over in the twenty-first century. To illustrate our model of bubble formation, for example how theories behind sentiments were changed in order to justify sticky sentiments, we draw on examples from the dotcom bubble in the United Kingdom and from Nordic Europe—Iceland. To provide a stronger visualization of the model of bubble emergence, we invoke the concept of value-pricing thermometer and introduce our adapted version of the bubble thermometer. To exemplify the bubble thermometer, we explore social processes that attempt to build up movie hype, and their aftermath, and relate such exploration to our emerging interdisciplinary theory of bubbles.
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Notes
the assumption of velocity over time is relaxed as this model is developed for the uncertain-decision making setting only.
Carlaw et al. (2006).
Elster (2007, p. 133).
Turcan (2011).
Lovallo and Kahneman (2003).
Keynes (1936).
Ibid.
Stinchcombe (1965).
IMF (2006, p. 24).
Wade and Sigurgeirsdottir (2010).
Valgreen et al. (2006, p. 2).
IMF (2006, p. 23).
Mishkin and Herbertsson (2006); according to Wade and Sigurgeirsdottir (2010), Mishkin was paid $135,000 for this report.
Portes and Baldursson (2007, p. 1).
Matthiasson (2008, p. 2).
Dolan and Gourville (2009).
Perren (2004).
We do not wish to contribute to the established stream of research that analyzes large samples of movies via statistical methods to determine relationships between budgets, revenues, star power, critics, director power, and so on (examples of such work are Basuroy et al. 2003; Eliashberg and Shugan 1997; Hennig-Thurau et al. 2007; Ravid 1999).
Data on selected movies were drawn from the film review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes (http://www.rottentomatoes.com), from online movie publication and box office reporting services such as Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo. com) and The-numbers (http://www.the-numbers.com), as well as from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (http://www.oscars.org), and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s annual Golden Globe Awards (http://www. goldenglobes.org).
Ormerod (1998).
Ibid.
Keynes (1936).
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© 2014 Nikhilesh Dholakia and Romeo V. Turcan
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Dholakia, N., Turcan, R.V. (2014). Bubble Emergence: Toward a Model. In: Toward a Metatheory of Economic Bubbles: Socio-Political and Cultural Perspectives. Palgrave Pivot, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137361790_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137361790_6
Publisher Name: Palgrave Pivot, New York
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