Mineral Depletion and Peak Production

Abstract

Natural resources are critical for the economic development of human societies and cultures, and fears of an impending depletion of these resources have been expressed (at least) since antiquity (e.g. Maurice and Smithson 1984). The most recent — and overall very influential — predictions of resource depletion are those concerning the production of oil. Advocates of the so-called peak oil concept suggest that oil production is close to an unavoidable (geologically determined) peak that could have serious consequences for the global economy and society as a whole.¹ The ‘peak’ concept has increasingly influenced the debate over mineral depletion as well, and some analysts claim that world production of many minerals (e.g. lead, mercury, cadmium) has already peaked or are close to peaking (Bardi and Pagani 2007).