Abstract
Industrial structure shifts along with labor productivity within an economy. But shifting geographic trade patterns also affect structure. In turn, both productivity and trade influence employment levels but not necessarily in the expected ways. Farm and factory output is rising in most countries. Canada’s factory jobs rise and fall mainly with the dollar exchange rate. Strong German exports do not reduce unemployment. Productivity is reducing factory jobs in China.
Some aspects of the US jobs crisis are disproved. Contrary to popular opinion, overall unemployment has improved as the trade deficit increased since the 1980s; service sector wages pay more and rise more than other sectors; production jobs and management jobs were equally affected by the recession.
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Notes
The correlation with a three-year lag is very strong at 0.85.
The dividing line between high and low wage categories was $15 per hour. The idea is to find the wage below which one-half of the jobs fall. This is somewhat arbitrary as there is no dividing line that produces an exact 50–50 split in the number of jobs. The line can be moved at least one level higher or lower than $15 without significantly affecting the outcome. If the midpoint of the wage range (i.e., $26.49) is used as the high-low cut-off, the result is still that 2 million low wage jobs were lost and 1.8 million high wage jobs were gained. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that wages have risen with the shift toward services.
C. DeNavas-Walt, et al., U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60–236, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2009. pg 1. http:// www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60–236.pdf
C. DeNavas-Walt, et al., U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60–236, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2009. http://www. census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60–236.pdf., p. 8; see note 13. “The distribution of household income is influenced by many factors, such as the number of earners and household size.”
C. DeNavas-Walt, et al., U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60–236, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2009. http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60–236.pdf., p. 28. Derived from the US Census Bureau research series of the consumer price index.
A. Smith, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Prometheus Books, Amherst NY, 1991, p. 10.
From 1970 to 2010 China added 500 million people. From 1910 to 2010 the United States added 216 million.
“No matter how the official data are adjusted, China’s total manufacturing employment dropped by around 8.5 million or more from 1995 to 2000.”
J. Bannister, Manufacturing Employment and Compensation in China, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2005, p. 8. http://www.bls.gov/fls/ chinareport.pdf
J. Bannister, G. Cook, “China’s Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing through 2008,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, March 2011, p. 39.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EA.PRD.AGRI.KD/countries (Accessed January 28, 2013).
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© 2013 Joe Atikian
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Atikian, J. (2013). Where the Jobs Are. In: Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy. Palgrave Pivot, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_9
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