Issues, Policy Debates and Candidate Valence

Abstract

Any election is defined in part by the policies which attain salience as key decision points for undecided voters. Inevitably, the majority of voters will take the policy position of their favoured candidate through identification or ideological proximity. However, for a small but potentially key section of the electorate, candidate positioning and candidate credibility on these policies will matter. In 2002, the saliency of law and order and immigration, and the mainstream’s ineffective positioning on this, ensured a strong enough performance by Jean-Marie Le Pen to progress to the second round. In 2007, the hard Right position adopted by Nicolas Sarkozy and the UMP was not a surprise in itself, but the extent to which this was embedded within the presidential ballot played a significant role in FN vote transfer.