Skip to main content

The Budgetary Consequences of Middle East Peace: What are the Economic Impacts and Causal Linkages?

  • Chapter
Economic and Political Impediments to Middle East Peace

Part of the book series: International Political Economy Series ((IPES))

  • 208 Accesses

Abstract

Gone is the superpower rivalry of the Cold War era and the strategic significance it lent to the Middle East. The end of Soviet support has caused several Arab governments to realign their foreign policies; Israel is no longer necessarily perceived as an enemy but in some circles is seen as a potential economic and political partner.1 Clearly a major motivation for expanding defence expenditures has therefore been eliminated. Even so, there are still gaps in the defence systems of most states in the region, and most countries wish to modernize their armed forces. Even the peace process will not stand in the way of modernization, and actual defence spending is not expected to fall significantly for some time.2

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. Peter Kemp, “The Challenges of a Changing World: Middle Eastern Political and Economic Trends”, Middle East Economic Digest 38(51) (23 December 1994), p. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Francis Tusa, “New Prospects Make Waves in the Gulf: Naval Equipment Procurement in the Middle East”, Middle East Economic Digest 39(49) (8 December 1995), p. 12.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Peter Kemp, “In the Age of Peace, Security Starts at Home”, Middle East Economic Digest 39(49) (8 December 1995), p. 8.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Steve Chan, “Military Expenditures and Economic Performance”, in United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1986 ( Washington: United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1987 );

    Google Scholar 

  5. S. Deger and Robert West, “Introduction: Defense Expenditure, National Security and Economic Development in the Third World”, in S. Deger and R. West, Defense, Security and Development (London: Francis Pinter, 1987 ).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Emile Benoit, “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change 35 (1978), pp. 271–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. P.C. Frederiksen and Robert E. Looney, “Defense Expenditures and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Development 7 (1982), pp. 113–26.

    Google Scholar 

  8. K.W. Rothschild, “Military Expenditure, Exports and Growth”, Kyklos 30 (1977), pp. 804–13.

    Google Scholar 

  9. David Lim, “Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change 31 (1983), pp. 377–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. S. Deger and S. Sen, “Military Expenditure, Spin-Off and Economic Development”, Journal of Development Economics 12 (1983), pp. 67–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. W. Leontief and F. Duchin, Military Spending: Facts and Figures ( New York: Oxford University Press, 1983 ).

    Google Scholar 

  12. R. Faini, P. Annez and L. Taylor, “Defense Spending, Economic Structure and Growth: Evidence Among Countries and Over Time”, Economic Development and Cultural Change 32 (1984), pp. 487–98.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. B. Biswas and R. Ram, “Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change 35 (1986), pp. 361–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. L. Grobar and R. Porter, “Benoit Revisited: Defense Spending and Economic Growth in LDCs”, Journal of Conflict Resolution 33 (1989), pp. 318–45.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. C. Wolf, “Economic Success, Stability and the ‘Old’ International Order”, International Security 6 (1981), pp. 75–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. P.C. Frederiksen and Robert E. Looney, “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Armed Forces and Society 10 (1983), pp. 633–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. P.C. Frederiksen and R.E. Looney, “Another Look at the Defense Spending and Development Hypothesis”, Defense Analysis 1 (1985), pp. 205–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. S. Neuman, “International Stratification and Third World Military Industries”, International Organization 38 (1984), pp. 172–3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Robert E. Looney, “Impact of Arms Production on Third World Distribution and Growth”, Economic Development and Cultural Change 38 (1989), pp. 145–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Robert E. Looney, “Factors Underlying Venezuelan Defense Expenditures 1950–83: A Research Note”, Arms Control (May 1986), pp. 74–108;

    Google Scholar 

  21. Robert E. Looney, “The Impact of Defense Expenditures on the Saudi Arabian Private Sector”, Journal of Arab Affairs 6 (1987), pp. 198–229;

    Google Scholar 

  22. Robert E. Looney “The Role of Defense Expenditures in Iran’s Economic Decline”, Iranian Studies 21 (1988), pp. 52–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. K. Giymah-Brempong, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, An Econometric Investigation”, Journal of Peace Research 30 (1989), pp. 79–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. R.E. Looney and P.C. Frederiksen, “Defense Expenditures, External Public Ddebt and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Peace Research 23 (1986), pp. 329–86;

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. N. Mohammed, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Comment on Giymah-Brempong”, Journal of Peace Research 30 (1993), pp. 95–6;

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. N. Mohammed, “Economic Growth and Defense Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa, Benoit and Joerding Revisited”, Journal of African Economies 2 (1993), pp. 145–56.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Robert E. Looney, “Military Keynesianism in the Third World: An Assessment of Non-Military Motivations for Arms Production”, Journal of Political and Military Sociology 17 (1989), pp. 43–64;

    Google Scholar 

  28. Robert E. Looney, “A Post-Keynesian Analysis of Third World Military Expenditures”, Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali 38 (1991), pp. 779–98.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Robert E. Looney, “The Economic Impact of Rent Seeking and Military Expenditures in the Third World”, American Journal of Economics and Sociology 48 (1989), pp. 11–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. P.C. Frederiksen and R.E. Looney, “Budgetary Consequences of Defense Expenditures in Pakistan: Short-Run Impacts and Longer-Run Adjustments”, Journal of Peace Research 31 (1994), pp. 11–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. J. Lebovic and A. Ishaq, “Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East”, Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987), pp. 106–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. N. Babin, “Military Spending, Economic Growth and the Time Factor”, Armed Forces and Society 15 (1989), pp. 249–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. E. Kick and B.D. Sharda, “Third World Militarization and Development”, Journal of Developing Societies 2 (1986), pp. 49–67.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Dan Hewitt, “Military Expenditures 1972–1990, The Reasons Behind the Post-1985 Fall in World Military Spending”, IMF Working Paper WP/93/18, March 1993;

    Google Scholar 

  35. Dan Hewitt, “Military Expenditures Worldwide, Determinants and Trends, 1972–1988”, Journal of Public Policy 12 (1992), pp. 105–52.

    Google Scholar 

  36. C.W.J. Granger, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrics 37 (1969), pp. 424–38;

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. C.W.J. Granger “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics 39 (1988), pp. 199–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. W. Joerding, “Economic Growth and Defense Spending: Granger Causality”, Journal of Development 21 (1986), pp. 35–40.

    Google Scholar 

  39. C.J. LaCivita and P.C. Frederiksen, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: An Alternative Approach to the Causality Issue”, Journal of Development Economics 35 (1991), pp. 117–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. P.C. Frederiksen and Robert E. Looney, “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Armed Forces and Society 10 (1983), pp. 633–46; and Frederiksen and Looney, Another Look at the Defense Spending and Development Hypothesis, op. cit.

    Google Scholar 

  41. A.R. Chowdhury, “A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth”, Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), pp. 80–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. P.C. Frederiksen and C.J. LaCivita, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence on Causality for the Philippines 1956–1982”, Journal of Philippine Development 26 (1987), pp. 354–60.

    Google Scholar 

  43. C. Hsaio, “Autoregressive Modelling and Money—Income Causality Detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics 6 (1981), pp. 85–106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. D.L. Thornton and D.S. Batten, “Lag-length Selection and Test of Granger Causality between Money and Income”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17 (1985), pp. 164–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. R.C. Judge, W. Hill, H. Griffiths, H. Lutkephol and T.C. Lee, Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics ( New York, John Wiley, 1982 ).

    Google Scholar 

  46. World Bank, Peace and the Jordanian Economy ( Washington: World Bank, 1994 ), p. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  47. D.A. Dickey and W.A. Fuller, “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74 (1979), pp. 427–31.

    Google Scholar 

  48. See also Dickey and Fuller, “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica 49 (1981), pp. 1057–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. J.G. Mackinnon, “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger (eds), Long Run Economic Relationships ( Oxford: Oxford University Press (1991), pp. 267–76.

    Google Scholar 

  50. R. Davidson and J.G. Mackinnon, Estimation and Inference in Econometrics ( Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993 ).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2000 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Looney, R.E. (2000). The Budgetary Consequences of Middle East Peace: What are the Economic Impacts and Causal Linkages?. In: Wright, J.W., Drake, L. (eds) Economic and Political Impediments to Middle East Peace. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780333994269_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics