Introduction The United States and the Changing Nature of the International System

Abstract

l’he end of an era is ordinarily supervened by uncertainty. As the Uni red States and rhe Sovieu Union closed the doors on the Cold War in rhe late 1980s, some U.S. foreigu policy analysts claimed that Ameriam hege- mony was a thing of the past. Hard data seemed to back their deciaration. By the end of rhe Reagan Administration, the United States’s gross national debt had jumped from $995 biliton to $2.9 triiiion. and its arinual deficit stood at $152 biiiion. Conditions did not improve during the next three years. Under George Bush’s leadership, the United States economy endured a recession, and by 1992 the federal govemment’s cumulative debt had suqzsassed $4 triiiion and the arinual deficit had risen to $290 billion.¹ Based on analyses of the potential capabilitics of cntities such as China, Japan, the European Union. Russia, India, and Indonesia, some observers also predicted that by the year 2020 the structure of the iniernational System would be nmkipolar and that the rivain’ between the dominant powers would induce instability.²