The elusive peace dividend

Abstract

In the four years following the 1993 Israeli–Palestinian Declaration of Principles, Palestinian income declined by almost one-quarter.¹ In the eight years following the 1990 de facto split between Moldova and Trans-dniester, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Moldova fell by threequarters.² Income disparities in post-1989 Taif Accord Lebanon were worse than those of the 1960s.³ Unemployment in Bosnia-Herzegovina in mid-1997, 18 months after the Dayton Accord had been reached, affected 65–75 per cent of the workforce.⁴ In such circumstances, it is understandable if many citizens in societies emerging from civil war associate peace with poverty and economic degradation. As Addison and colleagues note starkly, ‘Ending the mortality and morbidity associated with war may be the only significant benefit of peace for large numbers of people unless poor communities and poor people are helped to recover their livelihoods and build their human capital.’