On the Advisability of Federal World Government

Abstract

Whether or not a certain course of action (such as establishing a federal world government) is or is not desirable is determined by comparing its expected benefits to its expected costs. This formulation uses the word “expected” in its statistical sense of “expected value.” We can never know for sure what the actual outcome will be in the future if we undertake now (or do not undertake now) a certain course of action. As is often observed, prediction is very difficult—especially about the future. In “decision-making under uncertainty,” something that all of us do on an almost daily basis (e.g., should we, or should we not, take an umbrella when we go out this morning), we attach various subjective probabilities to various “states of nature” (e.g., it will not rain, it will sprinkle, it will pour), and make our decision accordingly (e.g., if it is cloudy and the weather forecast calls for heavy rain, we are likely to take an umbrella).