Advertisement

Security Dynamics in the Baltic Sea Region Before and After the Ukraine Crisis

  • Elena Kropatcheva
Chapter

Abstract

The Ukraine crisis has been the most dramatic recent crisis in Russian-Western relations. Its impact is especially strong in the Baltic Sea region (BSR). The BSR is a very important region from a security perspective. It is also a very sensitive and complex region. This chapter analyses security dynamics – cooperation and conflict – within the BSR, by focusing on multilateral security-related institutions. It shows that, despite attempts over more than twenty years to develop cooperative security and bind Russia, these attempts have largely failed. The BSR moved from being one of the most promising regions for Western-Russian cooperation to one of the most dangerous areas.

Keywords

Organize Crime Baltic State Cooperative Security Security Dynamic Central Eastern Europe 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Adler, Emanuel, and Patricia Greve. 2009. When Security Community Meets Balance of Power: Overlapping Regional Mechanisms of Security Governance. Review of International Studies 35: 59–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barnes, Julian E. 2016. NATO Moving towards New Deterrence Model. Wall Street Journal, February 10.Google Scholar
  3. Boyer, Dave. 2016. Obama Wants to Quadruple Military Spending in Europe to Counter Russian Aggression. Washington Times, February 2.Google Scholar
  4. Breslin, Shaun, and Stuart Croft. 2012. Researching Regional Security Governance. Dimensions, Debates and Discourses. In Comparative Regional Security Governance, eds. Shaun Breslin and Stuart Croft, 1–22. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  5. CBSS. 2015. Annual Report for the Estonian Presidency 2014–2015. Stockholm.Google Scholar
  6. ———. 2016. Official Webpage. http://www.cbss.org/safe-secure-region.
  7. DefenseNews.com. 2015. Nations Respond to Russian Buildup in Baltics. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/show-daily/sea-air-space/2015/04/12/russia-baltic-sweden-poland-submarine-high-north-crimea/25368547/ (accessed January 10, 2016).
  8. Die Welt. 2015. Steinmeier landet einen Coup bei NATO-Treffen. December 2.Google Scholar
  9. Dolidze, Tatia. 2015. EU Sanctions Policy towards Russia: The Sanctioner-Sanctionee’s Game of Thrones. CEPS Working Document 402.Google Scholar
  10. DW.com. 2013. Russland Stationiert Iskander-Raketen in Kaliningrad. December 16. http://www.dw.com/de/russland-stationiert-iskander-raketen-in-kaliningrad/a-17300869 (accessed January 10, 2016).
  11. EC. 2000. EU/Russia Summit Joint Declaration on Strengthening Dialogue and Cooperation on Political and Security Matters in Europe. Document IP/00/1239.Google Scholar
  12. ———. 2002. Russia-EU Summit. Joint Declaration on Further Practical Steps in Developing Political Dialogue and Cooperation on Crisis Management and Security Matters. DOC/02/12.Google Scholar
  13. ———. 2003. Roadmaps for Four Common Spaces. http://www.enpi-info.eu/library/content/eu-russia-road-map-common-spaces.
  14. EUSBSR. 2016. Official Webpage. http://www.balticsea-region-strategy.eu/.
  15. Farrell, Mary. 2005. The Global Politics of Regionalism: An Introduction. In Global Politics of Regionalism. Theory and Practice, eds. Mary Farrell, Bjorn Hettne, and Luk van Langenhove, 1–17. London: Pluto Press.Google Scholar
  16. Flynn, Gregory, and Henry Farrell. 1999. Piecing together the Democratic Peace: The CSCE, Norms, and the ‘Construction’ of Security in Post-Cold War Europe. International Organization 53(3): 505–535.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Frear, Thomas, Lukasz Kulesa, and Ian Kearns. 2014. Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close Encounters between Russia and the West in 2014. European Leadership Network Policy Brief, November.Google Scholar
  18. Gheciu, Alexandra. 2005. Security Institutions as Agents of Socialization? NATO and the ‘New Europe’. International Organization 59(Fall): 973–1020.Google Scholar
  19. Golunov, Serghei. 2013. EU-Russian Border Security. Challenges, (Mis)Perceptions, and Responses. London/New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  20. Gorenburg, Dmitry. 2015. This Is How the Russian Military Pans to Fight Future Wars. The National Interest, August 20.Google Scholar
  21. Harress, Chistopher. 2015. Amid Russian Hostility, Baltic State Leaders Discuss Joint Defense Buys and Begin Nordic Military Cooperation. International Business Times, August 10. http://www.ibtimes.com/amid-russian-hostility-baltic-state-leaders-discuss-joint-defense-buys-begin-nordic-2046201.
  22. Hyndle-Hussein, Joanna. 2015. The Baltic States on the Conflict in Ukraine. OSW Commentary 158.Google Scholar
  23. Jaervenpaa, Pauli. 2014. Nordic Defense Cooperation. NORDEFCO and Beyond. In Northern Security and Global Politics. Nordic-Baltic Strategic Infuence in a Post-Unipolar World, eds. Ann-Sofie Dahl and Pauli Jaervenpaa, 137–154. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  24. Janes’s Intelligence Review. 2015. Standing Together. Baltic States Join Forces to Resist Russia. February, 28–33.Google Scholar
  25. Kearns, Ian, Lukasz Kulesa, and Thomas Frear. 2015. Russia-West Dangerous Brinkmanship Continues. European Leadership Network Policy Brief, March 12. http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/russia--west-dangerous-brinkmanship-continues_2529.html.
  26. Kramer, Mark. 2013. Russia, the Baltic Region, and the Challenge for NATO. PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo 267.Google Scholar
  27. Kropatcheva, Elena. 2015. The Evolution of Russia’s OSCE Policy: From the Promises of the Helsinki Final Act to the Ukrainian Crisis. Journal of Contemporary European Studies 23(1): 6–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. ———. 2016. The EU’s Policy of Democracy Promotion and Ukraine’s Bumpy Path to the Association Agreement—Amidst a Major Crisis In Europe. In European Engagement under Review. Exporting Values, Rules and Practices to the Post-Soviet Space, ed. Vera Axyonova, 11–40. Stuttgart: Ibidem-Verlag.Google Scholar
  29. Kühn, Ulrich. 2015. Cooperative Arms Control in Europe (1973–2014). A Case of Regime Decay? PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg. (unpublished manuscript).Google Scholar
  30. Lavrov, Sergey. 2012. Interview of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, S.V. Lavrov to the Amber Bridge magazine, No. 3(7), 2012, Doc. 1679-12-09-2011.Google Scholar
  31. ———. 2013. Speech of and Answers to Questions of Mass Media by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during Joint Press conference Summarizing the Results of the Trilateral meeting with Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, Warsaw, May 10, Doc. 927-11-05-2013.Google Scholar
  32. ———. 2014a. Address by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the 69th session of the UN General Assembly, New York, September 27, Doc. 2290-27-09-2014.Google Scholar
  33. ———. 2014b. Speech by the Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, at the XXIII session of the Council of the Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. June 10. http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/activity/coordinating_and_advisory_body/meetings/-/asset_publisher/o0D4RcICOGw8/content/id/55134.
  34. Makarychev, Andrey, and Alexander Sergunin. 2013. The Russian Presidency in the Council of the Baltic Sea States: Thin Socialization, Deficient Soft Power? CEURUS EU-Russia Paper, October.Google Scholar
  35. McNamara, Eoin Micheal, Magnus Nordenman, and Charly Salonius-Pasternak. 2015. Nordic-Baltic Security and US Foreign Policy. A Durable Transatlantic Link? FIIA Working Paper, June.Google Scholar
  36. Mearsheimer, John J. 1995. The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security 19(3): 5–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Moller, Bjorn. 2012. European Security. The Roles of Regional Organisations. Furham: Ashgate.Google Scholar
  38. Musch-Borowsk, Bernd. 2015. Aufrüsten in der Ostsee. Deutschlandradio Kultur, April 15. http://www.deutschlandradiokultur.de/militaermanoever-auf-gotland-aufruesten-in-der-ostsee.979.de.html?dram:article_id=317128.
  39. NATO. 2013a. NATO and Russia Hold Joint Counter-Terror Exercise “Vigilant Skies”. September 26. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_103663.htm?selectedLocale=en.
  40. NATO. 2016. Warsaw Summit Communiqué Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw 8–9 July 2016. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm
  41. ———. 2013b. NRC Scientists Cooperating to Detect Baltic Oil Spills. February 4. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_94466.htm?selectedLocale=en.
  42. ———. 1997. Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation. http://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/fndact-a.htm (accessed September 2, 2008).
  43. ND. 2016. Official Webpage. http://www.northerndimension.info/.
  44. Newman, Edward, Ramesh Thakur, and John Tirman, eds. 2006. Multilateralism under Challenge? Power, International Order, and Structural Change. New York: UN University Press.Google Scholar
  45. Nilsson, Carl Hvenmark. 2015. Sweden’s Evolving Relationship with NATO and Its Consequences for the Baltic Sea Region. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, October 7.Google Scholar
  46. Nolan, Janne E. 1994. The Concept of Cooperative Security. In Global Engagement: Cooperation and Security in the 21st Century, ed. Janne E. Nolan, 3–18. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
  47. Norkus, Renatas. 1998. Regional Cooperation and Security in the Baltic Sea Rim. In Small States Inside and Outside the European Union: Interests and Policies, ed. Laurent Goetschel, 139–160. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Oldberg, Ingmar. 2012. Soft Security in the Baltic Sea Region. Occasional Ulpapers 12.Google Scholar
  49. Opitz, Christian. 2015. Potential for Nordic-Baltic Security Cooperation. SWP Comments 40.Google Scholar
  50. Peters, Guy B., ed. 2005. Institutional Theory in Political Science: The ‘New Institutionalism’. 2nd ed. New York: Continuum.Google Scholar
  51. Racz, Andras. 2015. Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine: Breaking the Enemy’s Ability to Resist. FIIA Report 43.Google Scholar
  52. Raik, Kristi, Mika Aaltola, Katri Pynnoniemi, and Charly Salonius-Pasternak. 2015. Pushed together by External Forces? The Foreign and Security Policies of Estonia and Finland in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis. FIIA Briefing Paper 167.Google Scholar
  53. Reboka, Grundega, and Zaneta Ozolina. 2015. Security Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region under the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO): A Way Forward? In Riga Conference 2015 Paper “Towards the European Global Security Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities”, eds. Andris Spruds and Karlis Bukovskis, 167–174. Riga: Latvian Institute of International Affairs.Google Scholar
  54. RFE/RL. 2015a. NATO Chief Says West Must Counter Russian Military Buildup. February 15. http://www.rferl.org/content/nato-chief-says-west-must-counter-russian-military-buildup/27348218.html.
  55. ——— 2015b. Russia Warns against Attempts to Alter Europe’s Balance of Power. October 9. http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-nato-warns-against-altering-europe-balance/27297213.html.
  56. Risse, Thomas. 2002. Constructivism and International Institutions: Toward Conversations Across Paradigms. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline, eds. Ira Katznelson and Helen V. Milner, 597–629. New-York: Norton.Google Scholar
  57. Rubaltic.ru. 2016. Ekspert: dve iz triokh novykh divizii VS RF budut u beregov Baltiiskogo moria (Interview with Victor Litovkin). January 13. http://www.rubaltic.ru/news/13012016-expert-sozdanie-diviziy/#t20c (accessed January 15, 2016).
  58. Sakwa, Richard. 2015. Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands. London: I. B. Tauris.Google Scholar
  59. Schimmelfennig, Frank, Stefan Engert, and Heiko Knobel. 2006. International Socialization in Europe: European Organizations, Political Conditionality and Democratic Change. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Simmons, Beth A., and Lisa L. Martin. 2002. International Organizations and Institutions. In Handbook of International Relations, eds. Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, 192–211. London: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Šleivyte, Janina. 2010. Russia’s European Agenda and the Baltic States. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  62. Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe. 2015. Avoiding War in Europe: How to Reduce the Risk of a Military Encounter between Russia and NATO. Position Paper III.Google Scholar
  63. Tavares, Rodrigo. 2010. Regional Security. The Capacity of International Organizations. London/New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  64. Trenin, Dmitri. 2011. Russian Policies toward the Nordic-Baltic Region. In Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21st Century: The Regional Agenda and the Global Role, eds. Robert Nurick and Magnus Nordenman, 47–51. Washington, DC: Atlantic Council.Google Scholar
  65. U.S. Department of State. 2009. Archive. The Northern Europe Initiative (NEI). http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/29548.htm.
  66. ———. 2016. Enhanced Partnership in Northern Europe (e-PINE). http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rt/epine/.
  67. Wess, Mitchell A. 2016. A Bold New Baltic Strategy for NATO. National Interest, January 6.Google Scholar
  68. Winnerstig, Mike, ed. 2014. Tools of Destabilization, Russian Soft Power and Non-Military Influence in the Baltic States. Stockholm, FOI-R-3990-SE.Google Scholar
  69. Withnall, Adam. 2015. Russia Threatens Denmark with Nuclear Weapons If It Tries to Join NATO Defence Shield. Independent, March 22.Google Scholar
  70. Zalan, Eszter. 2015. Poland’s Ruling Party Shows True Colours. EU Observer, November 27.Google Scholar
  71. Zizek, Slavoi. 2001. The Fright for Real Tears. Krzysztof Kieslowski between Theory and Post-Theory. London: BFI Publishing.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elena Kropatcheva
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University of Hamburg (IFSH)HamburgGermany

Personalised recommendations