Abstract
Tunsjø examine the tension and rivalry that erupts in maritime East Asia as a result of China’s rising power and its sea power ambitions. A secure and dominating China on the Asia mainland is expanding into its nearby seas seeking to safeguard sovereignty, resources, and security claims. The geopolitical development of China going to the seas can hardly be reversed as China grows more powerful. At the same time, it is natural for China’s neighbors and the U.S. to be alarmed by this geopolitical shift and seek to counter China’s ambitions. As a result, rivalry intensifies, the U.S. led international order at sea is challenged, and the risk of conflict and even war increases.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Bibliography
Allison, G. 2015. The Thucydides Trap: Are the United States and China Headed for War? The Atlantic, 24 September, at http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
Brooks, Stephen G. and William C. Wohlforth, 2008. World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Brown, K. 2012. Hu Jintao’s Legacy. Foreign Policy, November.
Cavas, Christopher P., Chinese Fighter Buzzes US Patrol Aircraft, DefenseNews, 22 August, at http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140822/DEFREG02/308220025/Chinese-Fighter-Buzzes-US-Patrol-Aircraft
Chang, G. 2001. The Coming Collapse of China. New York: Random House.
Chen, D., and X. Pu. 2013/2014. Correspondence: Debating China’s Assertiveness. International Security 38(3): 176–180.
Christensen, T.J. 2011. The Advantages of an Assertive China. Foreign Affairs 90(2): 54–67.
Churchill, W.S. 2005. The World Crisis, 1911–1918, paperback edition. Free Press.
Collins, G.B., and W.S. Murray. 2008. No Oil for the Lamps of China? Naval War College Review 61(2): 79–95.
Dutton, P. 2015. China’s Growing Maritime Power and the Impact on International Law of the Sea. Paper presented at the Norwegian Naval Academy, Bergen, 22 September.
Fravel, T.M. 2011. China’s Behavior in its Territorial Disputes and Assertiveness in the South China Sea, October. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Goldstein, L.J. 2010. Five Dragons Stirring up the Sea: Challenge and Opportunity in China’s Improving Maritime Enforcement Force. China Maritime Study, 5, April. Newport, RI: US Naval War College.
Grønning, B.E.M. 2014. Japan’s Shifting Military Priorities: Counterbalancing China’s Rise. Asian Security 10(1): 1–21.
He, Q. 2002. The Pitfalls of Modernization. Tokyo: Soshisha.
Heginbotham, E., et al. 2015. The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power 1996–2017. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html
Ikenberry, J.G. 2011. Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
———. 2014. Power, Order, and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2014. World Economic Outlook Database.
Jakobson, L., and D. Knox. 2010. New Foreign Policy Actors in China, SIPRI Policy Paper 26, September. Stockholm: SIPRI.
Jervis, R. 1999. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Johansson, Å., et al. 2012. Looking to 2060: Long-term Global Growth Prospects for the World, OECD, November, at http://www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlookanalysisandforecasts/lookingto2060.htm
Johnston, I.A. 2013. How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness? International Security 37(4) (Spring): 7–48.
———. 2013/2014. Correspondence: Debating China’s Assertiveness. International Security 38(3) (Winter): 180–183.
Kennan, G. 1954. Realities of American Foreign Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Layne, C. 1993. The Unipolar Illusion: Why New Great Powers Will Rise. International Security 17(4) (Spring): 5–51.
Levy, J.S. and W. R. Thompson. 2010. Balancing on Land and as Sea: Do States Ally against the Leading Global Power? International Security 35(1) (Summer): 7–43.
Li, M., and D. Lee. 2014. Domestic Sources of Chinese Foreign Policy. Journal of Contemporary China 23(86): 197–313.
Lind, J.M. 2000. Correspondence: Spirals, Security, and Stability in East Asia. International Security 24(4) (Spring): 190–200.
Ma, D. 2012. Before and after Hu. Foreign Affairs, November.
Mearsheimer, J.J. 1990. Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War. International Security 15(1) (Summer): 5–56.
———. 2014. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 2nd ed. New York: Norton.
Nathan A.J. 2003. Authoritarian Resilience. Journal of Democracy 14(1) (January): 6–17.
National Intelligence Council (NIC). 2012. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, December. Washington, DC.
Organski, A.F.K., and J. Kugler. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ren, X. 2012. China’s Maritime Security Policy Making and Maritime Confidence-Building Measures. In Twenty-First Century Seapower: Cooperation and Conflict at Sea, eds. Peter Dutton, Robert S. Ross, and Øystein Tunsjø, 197–212. London: Routledge.
Rosen, D.H., and B. Bao. 2014. A Better Abacus for China. Rhodium Group, 12 December. http://rhg.com/notes/a-better-abacus-for-china
Ross, R.S. 1999. The Geography of Peace: East Asia in the Twenty First Century. International Security 23(4) (Spring): 81–118.
———. 2009. China’s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response. International Security 34(2) (Fall): 46–81.
———. 2013. US Grand Strategy, the Rise of China, and US National Security Strategy for East Asia. Strategic Studies Quarterly Volume 7, No. 2 (Summer), 2013.
Schelling, T.C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press.
———. 1980. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Shi, Xiaoqin. 2012. The Boundaries and Directions of China’s Seapower. In Twenty-First Century Seapower: Cooperation and Conflict at Sea, eds. Peter Dutton, Robert S. Ross, and Øystein Tunsjø, 65–84. London: Routledge.
SIPRI. 2014. Military Expenditure Database.
Spykman, N.J. 1942. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. Harcourt, Brace & world, Inc.
———. 1944. The Geography of the Peace. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.
State Council. 2015. China’s Maritime Economy Outpaces GDP Growth, Beijing, 23 June, at http://english.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2015/06/23/content_281475132986863.htm
Subramanian, A. 2011. Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Swaine, M. 2010. Perceptions of an Assertive China. China Leadership Monitor 32 (May).
The World Bank. 2015. GDP ranking, PPP based, 1 July, at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-PPP-based-table
Tunsjø, Ø. 2013. China’s Maritime Security Policy in a Bipolar International System. Paper presented at the conference The Hu Jintao Decade in China’s Foreign and Security Policy, 18–19 April. Stockholm: SIPRI.
———. 2014. The Cold War as a Guide to the Risk of War in East Asia. Global Asia 9(3): 15–19.
U.S. Department of Defense. 2015. Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy. Washington, DC, 27 July, at http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/NDAA%20A-P_Maritime_SecuritY_Strategy-08142015-1300-FINALFORMAT.PDF
U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence. 2015. The PLA Navy: New Capabilities and Missions for the 21st Century. Washington, DC, April. http://news.usni.org/2015/04/09/document-office-of-naval-intelligence-2015-assessment-of-chinese-peoples-liberation-army-navy
Waltz, K.N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
———. 1993. The Emerging Structure of International Politics. International Security 18 (2) (Fall) 44–79.
———. 1997. Evaluating Theories. American Political Science Review 91 (4) (December): 913–917.
Wohlforth, W.C. 1999. The Stability of a Unipolar World. International Security 24 (1) (Summer): 5–41.
Wu, J., and H. Zhang. 2012. Freedom of the Seas and the Law of the Sea: A Chinese Perspective. In Twenty-First Century Seapower: Cooperation and Conflict at Sea, eds. Peter Dutton, Robert S. Ross, and Øystein Tunsjø, 281–297. London: Routledge.
Yahuda, M. 2013. China’s New Assertiveness in the South China Sea. Journal of Contemporary China 22(81): 446–459.
Yan, S. 2013. Chinese National Security Decision-Making: Processes and Challenges. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Zhang, T. 2010. On China’s Concept of the International Security Order. In US–China–EU Relations: Managing the New World Order, eds. Robert S. Ross, Øystein Tunsjø, and Zhang Tuosheng, 26–47. London: Routledge.
Zhao, S. 2013. Foreign Policy Implications of Chinese Nationalism Revisited: The Strident Turn. Journal of Contemporary China 22 (82) (March): 535–553.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Additional information
This chapter draws on presentations at the conference “International Order at Sea,” Norwegian Naval Academy, Bergen, September 22, 2015; the International Studies Association (ISA) annual conference, Toronto, Canada, 28 March 2014; and the SIPRI conference titled The Hu Jintao decade in China’s foreign and security policy, Stockholm 18–19 April 2013. I would like to thank the various participants at these conferences for their valuable comments. I have also benefitted from participating in the International Order at Sea international workshop series and would like to thank Robert Ross, Bud Cole, Peter Dutton, Andrew Erickson, David Finkelstein, Zhang Tuosheng, Zhang Haiwen, Yoji Koda, Sarabjeet Singh Parmar, Ian Bowers, Johannes Rø, and the editors for feedback, comments and discussions. The views in the chapter, of course, are entirely the authors.
Copyright information
© 2016 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tunsjø, Ø. (2016). Global Power Shift, Geography, and Maritime East Asia. In: Bekkevold, J., Till, G. (eds) International Order at Sea. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58663-6_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58663-6_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-58662-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-58663-6
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)