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A.W.H. Phillips (1914–1975)

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The Palgrave Companion to LSE Economics

Abstract

A.W.H. ‘Bill’ Phillips was an innovative and sometimes path-breaking economist, but one whose achievements and influence have been much exaggerated. The famous ‘Phillips curve’ was neither as innovative, insightful, nor influential as it has been portrayed; the ‘Phillips machine’, although innovative, left little mark. His work on the theory of stabilisation policy and econometric theory was of much greater intellectual value. But attempts at finely tuned macroeconomic control with which the former was concerned feel thoroughly out of favour. Phillips’s work on econometrics went largely unnoticed, and his insights were later rediscovered after his death. There are indications too, that his econometric insights persuaded Phillips himself that the stabilisation policy with which so much of his work had been concerned could not be made effective.

I am most grateful to Martin Slater for his insights on Phillips and particularly the Machine, and for copies of various documents he possess, to Mark Hayes and Jörg Bibow for useful comments, to Duo Qin for her help, and to Sophie Large for research assistance.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Consequently, the speculations in Leeson (1994: 611) about Phillips’s war experience being the source of his interest in social science can be discarded.

  2. 2.

    Bollard (2016) refers to it variously as a ‘C-pass’ (ibid.: vi), a ‘bare pass in sociology’ (ibid.: 105 and 112) ‘a third class pass in sociology’ (ibid.: 139 and 155), a ‘third class examination pass’ (ibid.: 102). A Third Class Degree is an Honours degree, whereas a Pass is not. The idea that Phillips’s degree was in sociology is also found in Lancaster (1979) and Leeson (1994). As his Student File shows, Phillips took a Pass Degree in economics. Only his ‘Special subject’ was sociology.

  3. 3.

    This is described by Gilbert (1989) who also said that, ‘The rapid expansion of econometrics at the LSE in the early sixties, and its introduction into the teaching of economics degrees, was due to Phillips more than to any other individual’ (ibid.: 127–128).

  4. 4.

    The operation of such radios has become well known since the film version of Lomax (1995) was released in 2013; other such accounts are easily located.

  5. 5.

    The programme of the meeting—American Economic Association (1950)—lists no such event, and none of Lerner, Court and Polak is listed as attending the Conference. Probably, it was demonstrated at Roosevelt College during the Conference.

  6. 6.

    My own attempts to locate any sign of either such a machine, or anyone who knew of one, failed, and none is mentioned in Young and Lee (1993).

  7. 7.

    The source is in fact a reference letter by Robbins for Phillips at the time of his promotion to Reader, dated 1 April 1954, and is in Phillips’s Staff File. Bollard also had Robbins (1972) in his bibliography, although he never actually cited it.

  8. 8.

    The earlier one plotted the change in all factor prices and became strictly vertical at high employment; the later one treated only wages and did not. Phillips (1954a: 308) postulated ‘a fairly sharp bend where it passes through zero rate of change of [factor] prices’. The sharp bend in the 1958 curve is at about a 2% wage increase, a much higher level by the standards of the time. (The representation of the 1954 curve in Leeson (1997b: 159) has much more resemblance to the 1958 curve than did the original.)

  9. 9.

    This is apparent from a letter from the Director of the School to the Chairman of the Court. See Phillips Staff File, BLPES Archives: 2 April 1958.

  10. 10.

    Phillips Staff File, BLPES Archives: Phillips CV February 1958.

  11. 11.

    A search for its title in Google Scholar in December 2017 produced sixteen hits—seven in works by Leeson, seven in other historical works and two in statistics.

  12. 12.

    Phillips Staff File, BLPES Archives: letter of 3 May 1954.

  13. 13.

    Phillips Staff File, BLPES Archives: letter of 2 August 1957.

References

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  1. Balliol College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    James Forder

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  1. James Forder
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  1. Researcher in Economics, London, UK

    Robert A. Cord

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Forder, J. (2019). A.W.H. Phillips (1914–1975). In: Cord, R.A. (eds) The Palgrave Companion to LSE Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58274-4_23

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58274-4_23

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