Belarus: Preventing Terrorism in Preemptive Authoritarianism

Abstract

The threat of terrorism, in what is often referred to as the “last dictatorship in Europe,” Belarus, has traditionally been viewed as relatively low because of the conflict-avoidant nature of its domestic and international politics. The population of Belarus is characterized by a high level of ethnical and religious homogeneity. Belarus does not have any ongoing conflicts or territorial claims with its neighboring states and the Belarusian military forces do not participate in operations abroad. However, during the last decade, Belarus experienced several violent attacks against civilians, law enforcement agencies, and foreign embassies. Since 2008, Belarus has taken its place among countries with a high risk of terrorist attacks, ranking 34^th in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in 2011 after the Minsk Metro bombing caused 15 fatalities and more than 200 casualties. The authoritarian nature of the regime and its ongoing fight against the opposition complicates the activity of terrorist groups, due to the extreme level of government control over communication and financial sources, particularly those of a foreign nature. However, the nondemocratic nature of the regime jeopardizes the fight against terrorism. A by-product of the oppression of civil society is a low level of trust toward the government from nongovernment groups and citizens, and therefore hinders cooperation. Close partnership with Russia and other countries within the CIS ATC is beneficial for counterterrorism activities because of Russia’s experience. However, the troubled relationship with the West complicates Belarus’ ability to combat domestic terrorism, and the dominating discourse of “stability” shifts the focus for counterterrorism activities onto external sources, even though all previous terrorist attacks have been domestically grown.