China’s Transition in Its Growth Stage Will Become Steadier: A Talk with Barry Naughton

Abstract

Barry Naughton predicts that China’s economy will shift from the stage of hyper-growth to moderate growth, and believes that it is not certain whether China’s economy can realize the steady transformation from the first stage into the next stage as most people have expected when the changes in demand and cost come too fast. Nevertheless, the author argues that the structural problems in China’s economy are exaggerated in general, and people should be more careful when they criticize China’s investment efficiency. Moreover, China has so massive a size that the differences between regions and provinces are much larger than most economies, so the changes in cost conditions can never hit China as intensely as Japan and their impact on economic growth will also be much milder.

第一章 中国的增长阶段转型将会更平稳:与巴里·诺顿对话

This article was published in the Shanghai Economic Review in Oriental Morning Post on October 16, 2012.