The Unravelling of Arab Autocracy: Socioeconomic Factors in Context

  • Samir Makdisi
Part of the Rethinking International Development Series book series (RID)

Abstract

After a sustained period of autocratic rule in the Arab region following the independence of the Arab countries in the wake of World War II, the successful Tunisian uprising of December 2010 has ushered in what seems to be a new political phase — the beginnings of the unravelling of Arab autocracy. However, more than four years later, this trajectory is yet to take hold region-wide and, for the foreseeable future, its eventual outcome remains uncertain. Of four countries where the uprisings managed to overthrow the incumbent regime (namely, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), and one where this attempt has been ongoing for the past four years (Syria), only Tunisia appears to be moving in the direction of a genuine democracy, as attested by its approved constitution of January 2014, the parliamentary elections of 26 October and the presidential elections on 21 December of the same year, as well as the generally and relatively peaceful transfer of power among its major political contestants.

Keywords

Arab Country Arab World Gulf Cooperation Council Democratic Transition Arab Region 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. (2008) The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. Commission on Growth and Development (CGD) Working Paper 10, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
  2. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., and Yared, P. (2008) ‘Income and Democracy’, American Economic Review, 98(3), pp. 808–842.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., and Yared, P. (2009) ‘Reevaluating the Modernisation Hypothesis’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(8), pp. 1043–1058.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Aldashev, G. Platteau, J., and Sekeris, P. (2013) ‘Seduction of Religious Clerics and Violence in Autocratic Regimes: With Special Emphasis on Islam’ (MS). Available at http://petros.sekeris.org/clerical_cooptation.pdf (accessed 12 June 2015).Google Scholar
  5. Al Naqeeb, K. (1996) The Struggle between Tribe and Democracy [in Arabic]. London: Dar al-Saqi.Google Scholar
  6. Amin, M., Assaad, R., al-Baharna, N., Dervis, K., Desai, R.M., Dhillon N.S., Galal, A., Ghanem, H., and Graham, C. (2012) After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Ansani, A. and Daniele, V. (2012) ‘About a Revolution: The Economic Motivations of the Arab Spring’, International Journal of Development and Conflict, 3(3), pp. 1–29.Google Scholar
  8. Barro, R. (2012) Convergence and Modernisation Revisited. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper 18295. Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bichara, A. (2006) The Arab Question: Introduction to an Arab Democracy Manifesto [in Arabic]. Beirut: Center for Arab Unity Studies.Google Scholar
  10. Boix, C. and Stokes, S. (2003) ‘Endogenous Democratisation’, World Politics 55, pp. 517–549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Center for Arab Unity Studies (1983) ‘The Crisis of Democracy in the Arab World’, Proceedings of a Conference Held in Limassol, Cyprus (in Arabic).Google Scholar
  12. Chaney, E. (2012), ‘Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present’, Unpublished Mimeo, Department of Economics: Harvard University.Google Scholar
  13. Diamond, L. (2010) ‘Why Are There No Arab Democracies?’, Journal of Democracy, 21(1), pp. 93–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. El-Affendi, A. (2011) ‘Constituting Liberty, Healing the Nation: Revolutionary Identity Creation in the Arab World’s Delayed 1989’, Third World Quarterly, 32(7), pp. 1255–1271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Elbadawi, I. and Kubursi, A. (2014) Kuwaiti Democracy: Illusive or Resilient. Institute of Financial Economics Working Paper Series No. 1. American University of Beirut.Google Scholar
  16. Elbadawi, I. and Makdisi, S. (2010) ‘Introduction and Summing Up’, in: Democracy in the Arab World: Explaining the Deficit. London: Routledge. Available at: http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415779999/.Google Scholar
  17. Elbadawi, I. and Makdisi, S. (2013) Understanding Democratic Transitions in the Arab World. Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper 765, Egypt.Google Scholar
  18. Epstein, D., Bates, R., Goldstone, J., Kristensen, Ida, and O’Halloran, S. (2006) ‘Democratic Transitions’, American Journal of Political Science, 50, pp. 551–569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gleditsch, K. and Ward, M. (2006) ‘Diffusion and the International Context of Democratisation’, International Organisation, 60(4), pp. 911–934.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hakimian, H., Said, M., Karshenas, M., El Mahdi, A., Alami, R., and Rashed, A., (2013) Inclusive Growth in MENA: Employment and Poverty Dimensions in a Comparative Context. FEMISE Research Report No. 35-16, Egypt.Google Scholar
  21. Harik, I. (2006) ‘Democracy, Arab Exceptionalism and Social Science’, Middle East Journal, 60(4), pp. 664–684.Google Scholar
  22. Hudson, M. (1991) ‘After the Gulf War: Prospects for Democratisation in the Arab World’, Middle East Journal, 45(3), pp. 407–426.Google Scholar
  23. Human Development Report (2014) http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr14-report-en-1.pdf
  24. Huntington, S. (1991) The Third Wave: Democratisation in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
  25. ILO (International Labor Organisation) (2013) Global Employment Trends 2013: Recovering from a Second Jobs Dip.Google Scholar
  26. Inglehart, R. and W.C. (2009) ‘Development and Democracy: What We Know about Modernisation Today’, Foreign Affairs. Available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64821/ronald-inglehart-and-christian-welzel/how-development-leads-to-democracy.com (accessed 12 August 2014)Google Scholar
  27. Jung, J.K. (2008) Mission Impossible? Democracy Building in Post-Civil War Societies. Prepared for the Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, April, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York.Google Scholar
  28. Kaufmann D., Kraay, A., and Mastruzzi, M. (2010) The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (September). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430, Washington.Google Scholar
  29. Kedourie, E. (1994) Democracy and Arab Political Culture. London: Frank Cass & Co. Ltd.Google Scholar
  30. Kuru, A.T. (2014) ‘Authoritarianism and Democracy in Muslim Countries: Rentier States and Regional Diffusion’, Political Science Quarterly, 129(3), pp. 399–427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lipset, S.M. (1959) ‘Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy’, American Political Science Review, 53(1), pp. 69–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lipset, S.M. (1960) Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
  33. Lipset, S.M. (1994) ‘The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited’, American Sociological Review, 59(1), pp. 1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Lupu, N. and Murali K. (2009) ‘Does Economic Development Explain Democratic Development?’, Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association 67th Annual National Conference. Chicago, IL: The Palmer House Hilton.Google Scholar
  35. Maseland, R. and van Hoorn, A. (2013) ‘Does Democracy Deliver in Islamic Societies?’, APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, SSRN. Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2316026 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2316026 (accessed 8 June 2014).Google Scholar
  36. Munck, G. and Verkuilen, J. (2002) ‘Conceptualising and Measuring Democracy Evaluating Alternative Indices’, Comparative Political Studies, 35(1), pp. 5–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Noland, M. (2008) ‘Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism I: The Level of Democracy’, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 4(1), 1–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Polity IV Data Series version 2013, Available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm (accessed 5 March 2014).
  39. Przeworski, A. and Fernado, L. (1997). ‘Modernisation: Theories and Facts’, World Politics, 49. doi:10.1353/wp.1997.0004, pp. 155–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Przeworski, A., Cheibub, J.A., Alvarez, M., and Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Ross, M. (2014) ‘What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?’, SSRN, 2 April. Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2342668 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2342668 (accessed 27 April 2014).Google Scholar
  42. Rothstein, B. and Broms, R. (2011) Why No Democracy in the Arab-Muslim World: The Importance of Temple Financing. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Seattle: WA.Google Scholar
  43. Salameh, G. (ed.) (1994) ‘Introduction’, Democracy without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in Muslim World. London: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
  44. Sharabi, H. (1988). Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  45. The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR), Geneva 2014. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
  46. Therborn, G. (1977) ‘The Rule of Capital and the Rise of Democracy’, New Left Review, 103, pp. 3–41.Google Scholar
  47. Tibi, B. (2008) ‘Islamist Parties: Why They Can’t Be Democratic’, Journal of Democracy, 19(3), pp. 43–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Ulfelder, J. (2007) ‘Natural Resource Wealth and the Survival of Autocracies’, Comparative Political Studies, 40(8), pp. 995–1018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Ulfelder, J. and Lustik, M. (2007) ‘Modelling Transitions to and from Democracy’, Democratisation, 14(3), pp. 351–338. Available at http://www.tandfonlin.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510340701303196 (accessed 7 November 2014).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2013) Human Development Report: The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World. Available at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf.Google Scholar
  51. Waterbury, J. (1994) ‘Democracy without Democrats? The Potential for Political Liberalisation in the Middle East’, in: G. Salameh (ed.) Democracy without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in Muslim World. London: I.B Tauris.Google Scholar
  52. WDI (2014). Available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.P2
  53. World Bank (2012) Development Indicators, 2012. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicatorsGoogle Scholar
  54. World Bank (2014) Development Indicators, 2014. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi-2014-book.pdf (accessed 11 September 2014).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wucherpfennig, J. and Deutsch, F. (2009) ‘Modernisation and Democracy: Theories and Evidence Revisited’, Living Reviews in Democracy, 1. Available at http://democracy.livingreviews.org/index.php/lrd/article/view/lrd-2009-4/(accessed 25 August 2014).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Samir Makdisi 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Samir Makdisi

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations