Evaluating China’s Conventional Military Power: The Naval and Air Dimensions

Abstract

Many aspects of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) development, such as the actual breakdown of People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s military budget by-service or within-service, remain unclear. But general prioritization and trends may be seen inductively from new Chinese hardware. What this all means in practice can be seen readily in Beijing’s actual military developments since the late 1990s. China is developing a formidable set of military capabilities to ensure stability on its borders and to attempt to shape territorial and maritime claims in its favor immediately beyond. It is developing weapons systems and employment patterns designed to threaten foreign forces should they intervene in sensitive disputes on China’s periphery—an approach that some Chinese sources term “counterintervention” and the US military terms “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD). The goal is to deter such involvement in the first place and convince China’s neighbors that they must settle disputes on Beijing’s terms. China is also developing power projection platforms such as aircraft carriers and sending destroyers and frigates on naval diplomacy and nontraditional security missions, but these longer-range developments are happening gradually and do not represent high-end combat capabilities against another great power. Beijing can afford these efforts without making them the centerpiece of its investment. How, and to what extent, that might change in coming years is a difficult but important topic to analyze.