Volatility and Macroeconomic Paradigms for Rich and Poor

  • William Easterly
  • Roumeen Islam
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz
Part of the International Economic Association book series (IEA)

Abstract

Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity about what the real facts are, a scepticism about the conventional wisdom, and a willingness to listen to a wide range of opinions. His interest in macroeconomics resulted in one of the most influential books of the 1980s, The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, which examined why the conventional Phillips curve had been turned on its head by institutional mechanisms. His interest in macroeconomic policy was applied to real life when he led the successful Israeli heterodox inflation stabilization effort of 1985, first as adviser and then as central bank governor. As Chief Economist of the World Bank, he emphasized research and economic and sector work relative to lending activities and external relations. In research, while Chief Economist, he showed how high inflation was robustly and negatively related to economic growth, while there was little evidence of a robust relationship between inflation and growth at low rates of inflation (say below 40 per cent a year). Michael Bruno’s legacy lives on in the many people whom he inspired by being a good and curious listener and a thoughtful and non-ideological researcher. While inflation was the central macroeconomic issue of the 1980s,

Keywords

Exchange Rate Interest Rate Real Wage Real Interest Rate Small Open Economy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Aizenman, J. and Marion, N. (1998) ‘Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries’, Economica, vol. 66, no. 262, pp. 157–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ball, L., Mankiw, N.G. and Romer, D. (1988) ‘The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, pp. 1–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bruno, M. and Easterly, W. (1997) ‘Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 41, pp. 3–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Corbo, V., Fischer, S. and Webb, S. (eds) (1992) Adjustment Lending Revisited: Policies to Restore Growth (Washington, DC: World Bank).Google Scholar
  5. De Long, J.B. and Summers, L.H. (1988) ‘How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?’ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, pp. 433–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Easterly, William (1990) ‘Portfolio Effects in a CGE Model: Devaluation in a Dollarized Economy’, in Taylor, L. (ed.) Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium Models for the Developing World (Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press), pp. 269–301.Google Scholar
  7. Easterly, W. and Levine, R. (1997) ‘Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 112, pp. 1203–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Easterly, W., Islam, R. and Stiglitz, J. (2000) ‘Shaken and Stirred: Volatility and Macroeconomic Paradigms for Rich and Poor Countries’, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  9. Ferri, G. and Kang, T.S. (1999) ‘The Credit Channel at Work: Lessons from the Financial Crisis in Korea’, Economic Notes, vol. 28 (2), pp. 195–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Furman, J. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1999) ‘Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, pp. 1–135.Google Scholar
  11. Gavin, M., Hausmann, R., Perotti, R. and Talvi, E. (1996) ‘Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness’, Working Paper no. 326, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, DC, March.Google Scholar
  12. Greenwald, B.C. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1991) ‘Examining Alternative Macroeconomic Theories’, in Phelps, E. (ed.) Recent Developments in Macroeconomics (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar), pp. 335–88.Google Scholar
  13. Greenwald, B., Stiglitz, J.E. and Weiss, A. (1984) ‘Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations’, American Economic Review, vol. 74, no. 2, pp. 194–9.Google Scholar
  14. Guillaumont, P., Jeanneney-Guillaumont, S. and Brun, J.-F. (1999) ‘How Instability Lowers African Growth’, Journal of African Economies, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 87–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hausmann, R. and Gavin, M. (1996) ‘Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America’, Working Paper no. 315, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist, January.Google Scholar
  16. Helmann, T. and Stiglitz, J.E. (2000) ‘Credit and Equity Rationing in Markets with Adverse Selection’, European Economic Review, vol. 44, pp. 281–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Helmann, T., Murdock, K. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1996) ‘Deposit Mobilization through Financial Restraint’, in Hermes, N. and Lensink, R. (eds) Financial Development and Economic Growth (London: Routledge), pp. 219–46.Google Scholar
  18. Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank (1995) Economic and Social Progress in Latin America. 1995 Report: Overcoming Volatility (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins Press).Google Scholar
  19. Islam, Nazrul (1995) ‘Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, November, pp. 1127–70.Google Scholar
  20. Kane, E. (1990) ‘Incentive Conflict in the International Regulatory Agreement on Risk-Based Capital’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 3308.Google Scholar
  21. Leland, H.E. and Pyle, D.H. (1977) ‘Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation’, Journal of Finance, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 371–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mayer, C. (1988) ‘New Issues in Corporate Finance’, European Economic Review, vol. 32, pp. 1167–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Mendoza, E.G. (1994) ‘Terms-of-Trade Uncertainty and Economic Growth: Are Risk Indicators Significant in Growth Regressions?’ International Finance Discussion Paper no. 491, United States Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Division, December.Google Scholar
  24. Myers, S.C. and Maljuf, N. (1984) ‘Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information that Investors Do Not Have’, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 13, pp. 187–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Newbery, D.M. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1982) ‘Risk Aversion, Supply Response, and the Optimality of Random Prices: A Diagrammatic Analysis’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 97, no. 1, February, pp. 1–26.Google Scholar
  26. Orszag, P. and Stiglitz, J. (1999) ‘Bankruptcy, Credit Constraints, and Economic Policy’, unpublished draft, July.Google Scholar
  27. President of the United States (1997) Economic Report of the President (Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office).Google Scholar
  28. Pritchett, L. (1998) ‘Patterns of Economic Growth: Hills, Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains’, Policy Research Working Paper no. 1947, Development Research Group, World Bank, July.Google Scholar
  29. Ramey, G. and Ramey, V.A. (1995) ‘Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth, American Economic Review, vol. 85, pp. 1138–51.Google Scholar
  30. Stiglitz, J.E. (1982) ‘Information and Capital Markets’, in Sharpe, W.F., Cootner, C. and Cootner, P.H. (eds) Financial Economics: Essays in Honor of Paul Cootner (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall), pp. 118–58.Google Scholar
  31. Stiglitz, J.E. (1994) Whither Socialism? (Cambridge, MASS: MIT Press).Google Scholar
  32. Stiglitz, J.E. (1997) ‘The Long Boom? Business Cycles in the 1980s and 1990s’, paper presented to Georgetown Macroeconomics Seminar, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, 4 September and at the CEPR conference ‘The Long Boom’, Stanford University, 5 September.Google Scholar
  33. Stiglitz, J.E. (1999) ‘Toward a General Theory of Wage and Price Rigidities and Economic Fluctuations’, American Economic Review, vol. 89, no. 2, May, pp. 75–80.Google Scholar
  34. Stiglitz, J.E. (1999) ‘Whither Reform?’ paper presented at the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, World Bank, Washington, DC, 28–30 April.Google Scholar
  35. Stiglitz, J.E. and Uy, M. (1996) ‘Financial Markets, Public Policy, and the East Asian Miracle’, World Bank Research Observer, vol. 11, no. 2, August, pp. 249–76.Google Scholar
  36. Talvi, E. (1995) ‘Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle Associated with Exchange Ratebased Stabilizations: Evidence from Uruguay’s 1978 and 1991 Programs’, Working Paper no. 313, Office of the Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  37. Talvi, Ernesto (1996) ‘Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization with Endogenous Fiscal Response’, Working Paper Series no. 324, Office of the Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  38. World Bank (1992) ‘Adjustment Lending and Mobilization of Private and Public Resources for Growth’, World Bank Policy and Research Series no. 22, Country Economics Department, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  39. World Bank (1999) ‘Coping with the Crisis in Education and Health’, Thailand Social Monitor, Issue 2, World Bank Office in Bangkok, Thailand, July.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© International Economic Association 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • William Easterly
    • 1
  • Roumeen Islam
    • 1
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz
    • 2
  1. 1.The World Bank, Washington DCUK
  2. 2.Stanford UniversityUSA

Personalised recommendations