The Emergence of a System of Dynamic Identity

Abstract

In complex environments co-evolving emergent behaviour has a multiplicity of causes. Direct causal links between intentions, decisions and outcomes disappear. Long-term prediction is impossible.¹ The inherent uncertainty in complex environments is such that what evolves is not a process for forecasting followed by informed rational action, it is a process for learning and adaptation. Those who cannot adapt, fail. Those who do adapt become increasingly embedded with others who have also learned to adapt quickly. The most successful ones quickly fit co-operatively into whatever niche presents itself.² The resulting system is a variety of enterprises and institutions rich in size, focus and purpose. Survival comes not from rational choice between alternatives but as a result of choosing the right adaptive processes to enable one to fit in what ever happens: ‘set[s] of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that perhaps can be explained (and perhaps justified) insofar as they economize on cognitive effort’ (Orbell and Dawes 1991, p. 517).