Abstract
On 29 March 2019, the UK will cease to be a member of the EU. After more than four decades in the EU, Brexit will have wide-ranging implications for the UK, the EU, and third countries around the world. Uncertainty about the future EU-UK economic partnership and brinkmanship in the Brexit negotiations has started to impact the UK’s economic performance, while its post-Brexit geopolitical role and influence have come under scrutiny. But there may also be opportunities for the UK to reposition and rebrand ‘Global Britain’ in the world, including within the Commonwealth, and pursue its own independent trade policy. This chapter examines some of the key International Political Economy (IPE) implications of Brexit for the UK, the EU, and the wider global economy, including the world’s poorest nations.
This chapter was correct at the time of writing in March 2018. However, the UK and the EU continue negotiations to finalise the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement ahead of the UK formally exiting the EU on 29 March 2019. Any views expressed in this chapter are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Commonwealth Secretariat.
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- 1.
Withdrawal from the European Union (EU) is a right under Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty: ‘Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements’. The two-year period for the withdrawal negotiations may only be extended with the unanimous agreement of the EU27 (union members, excluding the UK).
- 2.
The transition deal holds that Northern Ireland will effectively stay in parts of the Single Market and the Customs Union in the absence of other solutions to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. This so-called backstop option for Northern Ireland was a key part of the December 2017 Phase One agreement with the UK and must continue to apply ‘unless and until another solution is found’.
- 3.
Note that the transition deal is dependent on the UK and the EU finalising the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement by October 2018.
- 4.
At the time of writing in March 2018, the Labour Party’s official policy position is to stay in a customs union arrangement with the EU to avoid any major trade disruptions. There are also cross-party initiatives in the House of Commons and the House of Lords to mandate the UK Government to seek, as part of its withdrawal negotiations, a customs union arrangement with the EU.
- 5.
There are 34 regulatory agencies that the UK will either need to stay within—and this could be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice—or replicate (Fraser 2017).
- 6.
At the time of writing, the UK as an existing EU member state had successfully marshalled a concerted international diplomatic response to Russia following the Salisbury nerve agent attack in March 2018.
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Vickers, B. (2019). Implications of Brexit. In: Shaw, T.M., Mahrenbach, L.C., Modi, R., Yi-chong, X. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary International Political Economy. Palgrave Handbooks in IPE. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-45443-0_18
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