Skip to main content

Analysis and Interpretation: Temperature and Precipitation Indices

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History

Abstract

This chapter introduces the methodology and applications of indexing temperature and precipitation from narrative and proxy sources. Monthly and seasonal indices provide a critical link between historical weather descriptions and quantitative climate reconstruction and analysis. Best practices in indexing, as they were developed in the late twentieth century, require careful handling of data, as well as close familiarity with relevant source material and local climates. Several examples demonstrate the utility of indexing for extending high-resolution temperature and precipitation series, and for demonstrating climate impacts on agriculture and prices.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Oreskes et al., 2010, 1023.

  2. 2.

    Speer, 2010 (and references therein); Dufour, 1870; Angot, 1883.

  3. 3.

    Easton, 1928.

  4. 4.

    Brooks, 1949.

  5. 5.

    Lamb, 1977; Alexandre, 1987; Rodrigo, 2008.

  6. 6.

    IJnsen and Schmidt, 1974; Engelen et al., 2001 used it for temperature reconstruction of the warm and the cold season (excluding April and October) in the last millennium.

  7. 7.

    Mauelshagen, 2010, 55; Camuffo et al., 2010.

  8. 8.

    Bokwa et al., 2001; Dobrovolný et al., 2010.

  9. 9.

    Pfister, 1992, 133.

  10. 10.

    Dobrovolný et al., 2010.

  11. 11.

    See also Brázdil et al., 2010.

  12. 12.

    Camenisch, 2015a, 2015b.

  13. 13.

    Pfister, 1999, 38–39.

  14. 14.

    Pfister, 1984, 104.

  15. 15.

    Pfister and Rohr, 2015.

  16. 16.

    Brázdil et al., 2010.

  17. 17.

    Brázdil et al., 2010.

  18. 18.

    Glaser and Riemann, 2009.

  19. 19.

    Dobrovolný et al., 2010.

  20. 20.

    Brázdil et al., 2010.

  21. 21.

    Glaser and Riemann, 2009, 442.

  22. 22.

    See, e.g., Brázdil et al., 2010.

  23. 23.

    This paragraph follows the discussion by Dobrovolný et al. (2010) and references quoted therein unless stated otherwise.

  24. 24.

    Luterbacher et al., 2010.

  25. 25.

    Dobrovolný et al., 2015.

  26. 26.

    Pauling et al., 2006.

  27. 27.

    Camenisch, 2015a.

  28. 28.

    PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013.

  29. 29.

    Luterbacher et al., 2016.

  30. 30.

    Luterbacher et al., 2010.

  31. 31.

    Pfister, 1988; Pfister and Brázdil, 2006.

  32. 32.

    Pfister and Brázdil, 2006.

  33. 33.

    Pfister, 2005, 61.

  34. 34.

    Camenisch, 2015a.

  35. 35.

    Pfister, 2016.

  36. 36.

    Luterbacher et al., 2010.

References

  • Alexandre, Pierre. Le climat en Europe au moyen âge: contribution à l’histoire des variations climatiques de 1000 à 1425, d’après les narratives de l‘Europe Occidentale. Paris: Éditions de l’École des hautes études en sciences sociales, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  • Angot, Alfred. Étude sur les vendanges en France, vol. 1. Annales du Bureau central météorologique de France, 1883.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bokwa, Anita et al. “Pre-Instrumental Weather Observations in Poland in the 16th and 17th Century.” In History and Climate: Memories of the Future?, edited by P.D. Jones et al., 9–27. Boston: Springer, 2001. 

    Google Scholar 

  • Brázdil, Rudolf et al. “European Climate of the Past 500 Years: New Challenges for Historical Climatology.” Climatic Change 101 (2010): 7–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks, C.E.P. Climate through the Ages. Revised ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1949.

    Google Scholar 

  • Camenisch, Chantal. “Endless Cold: A Seasonal Reconstruction of Temperature and Precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries During the 15th Century Based on Documentary Evidence.” Climate of the Past 11 (2015a): 713–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camenisch, Chantal. Endlose Kälte: Witterungsverlauf und Getreidepreise in den burgundischen Niederlanden im 15. Jahrhundert. Basel: Schwabe, 2015b.

    Google Scholar 

  • Camuffo, Dario et al. “500-Year Temperature Reconstruction in the Mediterranean Basin by Means of Documentary Data and Instrumental Observations.” Climatic Change 101 (2010): 169–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dobrovolný, Petr et al. “Monthly, Seasonal and Annual Temperature Reconstructions for Central Europe Derived from Documentary Evidence and Instrumental Records Since AD 1500.” Climatic Change 101 (2010): 69–107.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dobrovolný, Petr et al. “Precipitation Reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010.” International Journal of Climatology 35 (2015): 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dufour, M. Louis. “Problème de la variation du climat.” Bulletin de La Société Vaudoise des Sciences Naturelles 10 (1870): 359–556.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easton, Cornelis. Les hivers dans l’Europe occidentale. Leiden: Royal Dutch Meterological Institute, 1928.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Engelen, Aryan F.V. et al. “A Millennium of Weather, Winds and Water in the Low Countries.” In History and Climate: Memories of the Future?, edited by P.D. Jones et al., 101–24. Boston: Springer, 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glaser, Rüdiger, and Dirk Riemann. “A Thousand-Year Record of Temperature Variations for Germany and Central Europe Based on Documentary Data.”Journal of Quaternary Science 24 (2009): 437–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IJnsen, Folkert, and Franz H. Schmidt. Onderzoek naar het Optreden van Winterweer in Nederland. De Bilt: KNMI, 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lamb, Hubert H. Climate: Past Present and Future. London: Meuthen, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luterbacher, Jürg et al. “Circulation Dynamics and Its Influence on European and Mediterranean January–April Climate Over the Past Half Millennium: Results and Insights from Instrumental Data, Documentary Evidence and Coupled Climate Models.” Climatic Change 101 (2010): 201–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luterbacher, Jürg et al. “European Summer Temperatures Since Roman Times.” Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 024001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mauelshagen, Franz Matthias. Klimageschichte der Neuzeit, 1500–1900. Darmstadt: Darmstadt Wiss. Buchges, 2010.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oreskes, Naomi et al. “Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?” Philosophy of Science 77 (2010): 1012–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pages 2k Consortium. “Continental-Scale Temperature Variability During the Past Two Millennia.” Nature Geoscience 6 (2013): 339–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pauling, Andreas et al. “Five Hundred Years of Gridded High-Resolution Precipitation Reconstructions Over Europe and the Connection to Large-Scale Circulation.” Climate Dynamics 26 (2006): 387–405.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. Das Klima der Schweiz von 1525–1860 und seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevölkerung und Landwirtschaft. Bern: P. Haupt, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. “Fluctuations climatiques et prix céréaliers en Europe du XVIe au XXe siècle.” Annales 43 (1988): 25–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. “Monthly Temperature and Precipitation in Central Europe 1525–1979: Quantifying Documentary Evidence on Weather and Its Effects.” In Climate Since A.D. 1500, edited by R.S. Bradley and P.D. Jones, 118–42. London: Routledge, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. Wetternachhersage: 500 Jahre Klimavariationen und Natur Katastrophen (1496–1995). Bern: Paul Haupt, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. “Weeping in the Snow: The Second Period of Little Ice Age-Type Impacts, 1570–1630.” In Kulturelle Konsequenzen der Kleine Eiszeit, edited by Wolfgang Behringer, Hartmut Lehmann, and Christian Pfister, 31–86. Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. “Climatic Extremes, Recurrent Crises and Witch Hunts: Strategies of European Societies in Coping with Exogenous Shocks in the Late Sixteenth and Early Seventeenth Centuries.” Medieval History Journal 10 (2007): 33–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian. “Auf der Kippe. Regen, Kälte und schwindende Importe stürzten die Schweiz 1916–1918 in den Nahrungsengpass.” In “Woche für Woche neue Preisaufschläge”: Nahrungsmittel-, Energie- und Ressourcenkonflikte in der Schweiz des Ersten Weltkrieges, edited by D. Krämer, C. Pfister, and D. Segesser, 57–81. Basel: Schwabe, 2016.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian, and Rudolf Brázdil. “Social Vulnerability to Climate in the ‘Little Ice Age’: An Example from Central Europe in the Early 1770s.” Climate of the Past 2 (2006): 115–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister, Christian, and Christian Rohr. “Euro-Climhist, Module Switzerland, Release 2.”Euro-Climhist. Information System on the History of Weather and Climate. Bern, 2015. http://www.euroclimhist.unibe.ch (last accessed April 23, 2016).

  • Rodrigo, Fernando S. “A New Method to Reconstruct Low-Frequency Climatic Variability from Documentary Sources: Application to Winter Rainfall Series in Andalusia (Southern Spain) from 1501 to 2000.” Climatic Change 87 (2008): 471–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Speer, James. Fundamentals of Tree-Ring Research. Tuscon: University of Arizona Press, 2010.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Pfister, C., Camenisch, C., Dobrovolný, P. (2018). Analysis and Interpretation: Temperature and Precipitation Indices. In: White, S., Pfister, C., Mauelshagen, F. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-137-43019-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-137-43020-5

  • eBook Packages: HistoryHistory (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics