Advertisement

Environmental systems modelling with respect to the future

  • A. Farkas
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences book series (LNCIS, volume 84)

Abstract

A general method is not currently available to forecast the uncertain future of complex systems. The discussed model is partly based on judgmental data and is thus inevitably subjective. However, we believe that the flexibly combined methods are useful to accomplish the various aspects of problems of environmental systems. Although there are still difficulties and limitations to this type of analysis, continuation of present developments will surely increase the scope and need for its applications.

Keywords

Future State Event Pair Basic Feasible Solution Crane System System Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. [1]
    Alter, S.: The Evaluation of Generic Cross-Impact Models. Futures, Vol.II, (4), 1979,pp.132–150.Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Duperrin, J.C. and Godet, M.: SMIC 74 — A Method for Constructing and Ranking Scenarios, Futures, Vol.7, (8), 1975,pp.302–312.Google Scholar
  3. [3]
    Enzer, S.: Cross-Impact Techniques in Technology Assessment. Futures, Vol.4,(3), 1972,pp.30–51.Google Scholar
  4. [4]
    Farkas, A.: Reliability of Mechanical Systems — An Attempt to Applying Cross-Impact Method. Periodica Polytechnica, Mech. Eng. Vol.30,(3–4) 1986, pp.155–168. (in press)Google Scholar
  5. [5]
    Kelly, P.: Further Comments on Cross-Impact Analysis. Futures, Vol.8,(8), 1976, pp.341–345.Google Scholar
  6. [6]
    Mitchell, R.B. and Tydeman, J.: A note on SMIC 74. Futures, Vol.8,(2), 1976, pp.336–340.Google Scholar
  7. [7]
    Mitchell, R.B. and Tydeman, J.: Subjective Information Modelling. Operational Research Quarterly, Vol.28, (1), 1977,pp.1–19.Google Scholar
  8. [8]
    Porter, A.L. et al.: A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam-Oxford, 1982.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 1986

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Farkas
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Industrial EngineeringTechnical UniversityBudapestHungary

Personalised recommendations