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Philosophical foundations for causal networks

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Advances in Intelligent Computing — IPMU '94 (IPMU 1994)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 945))

Abstract

Bayes nets are seeing increasing use in expert systems [2, 6], and structural equations models continue to be popular in many branches of the social sciences [1]. Both types of models involve directed acyclic graphs with variables as nodes, and in both cases there is much mysterious talk about causal interpretation. This paper uses probability trees to give precise conditions under which Bayes nets can be said to have a causal interpretation. Proofs and elaborations are provided by the author in [4].

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References

  1. Kenneth A. Bollen: Structural Equations with Latent Variables. New York: Wiley. 1988.

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  2. Pearl, J. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. San Mateo, California: Morgan Kaufmann 1988.

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  3. Shafer, Glenn: Can the various meanings of probability be reconciled? In: G. Keren and C. Lewis (eds.): A Handbook for Data Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences: Methodological Issues. Hillsdale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum 1993, pp. 165–196.

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  4. Shafer, Glenn: The Art of Causal Conjecture. Cambridge: MIT Press 1995.

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  5. Spirtes, Peter, Clark Glymour, and Richard Schemes. Causation, Prediction, and Search. Lecture Notes in Statistics 81. New York: Springer 1993.

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  6. D.J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid, S. L. Laurtizen, and R. G. Cowell: Bayesian analysis in expert systems (with discussion). Statistical Science, 8 219–283 (1993).

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  7. Vovk, V.G.: The logic of probability. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 55 317–351 (1993).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Accounting and Information Systems Faculty of Management, Rutgers University, 180 University Avenue, 07102, Newark, New Jersey, USA

    Glenn Shafer

Authors
  1. Glenn Shafer
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Editor information

Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier Ronald R. Yager Lotfi A. Zadeh

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© 1995 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Shafer, G. (1995). Philosophical foundations for causal networks. In: Bouchon-Meunier, B., Yager, R.R., Zadeh, L.A. (eds) Advances in Intelligent Computing — IPMU '94. IPMU 1994. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 945. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0035933

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0035933

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-60116-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-49443-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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