Concepts of causal relevance and irrelevance are readily formulated in the context of Bayes nets, but these formulations have significant shortcomings. Most importantly, they do not allow for the great variety that can be observed in the temporal configuration of causally related entities. For example, they deal awkwardly with progressive causation, where continued action of a cause continues to enhance an effect. This article discusses how such subtleties can be handled when we look beyond Bayes nets to a more fundamental structure: nature's probability tree.
KeywordsBayes net causality probability tree relevance refinement sign simplification tracking
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