Skip to main content

How Does China Avoid “Secular Stagnation?”

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Challenges and Solutions to China’s Modernization Process

Part of the book series: China Insights ((CHINAIN))

  • 9 Accesses

Abstract

In my previous studies, I reiterated and scrutinized the fact that China’s pre-2010 high-speed economic growth derived from its demographic dividend; hence, we can now conclude from the country’s negative growth of the working-age population that its demographic dividend has disappeared, and make bold predictions that its potential growth rate and real growth rate will also decline.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 109.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 139.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Cai and Lu (2013).

  2. 2.

    Summers (2018).

  3. 3.

    Keynes (1978).

  4. 4.

    Hansen (2004).

  5. 5.

    Cai (2019).

  6. 6.

    World Bank et al. (2017).

  7. 7.

    World Trade Organization et al. (2019).

  8. 8.

    See more discussions in Chap. 9.

  9. 9.

    Mian et al. (2020).

  10. 10.

    Jordà et al.

  11. 11.

    The Global Trade Alert (2020).

  12. 12.

    Stephen Roach believes that the goal of U.S. decoupling from global supply chains is threefold: punish China for the coronavirus, eliminate a source of vulnerability in critical equipment production lines and bring back home, via reshoring, offshore platforms that have undermined and hollowed out domestic operations. Stephen Roach, “Don’t Blame Supply Chains,” Yale Global Online, May 7, 2020, https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/dont-blame-supply-chains.

  13. 13.

    Davies (2020).

  14. 14.

    Tett (2020).

  15. 15.

    Cai.

  16. 16.

    Yang Du, Zhenzhen Zheng, Guangzhou Wang, Bao Lin, “Research on Medium- and Long-term Issues of Population Development and Aging,” in Xie et al. (2020).

  17. 17.

    See details in Chap. 2.

  18. 18.

    Minami (1968).

  19. 19.

    Hara et al. (2006).

  20. 20.

    Lu and Cai (2014).

  21. 21.

    Here, “troika” is more precise than “three horse-drawn carriages” to help readers understand. Troika is a Russian vehicle drawn by three horses abreast.

  22. 22.

    Wu et al. (2017).

  23. 23.

    Greenspan (2019).

  24. 24.

    Gong (2019).

References

  • Cai, F., & Yang, L. (2013). The end of China’s demographic dividend: The perspective of potential GDP growth. In R. Garnaut, F. Cai, & L. Song (Eds.), China: A new model for growth and development (pp. 55–74). ANU E Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cai, F. (2019). Globalization, convergence, and china’s economic development. World Economics and Politics, No. 3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cai, F. China’s economic growth prospects: From demographic dividend to reform dividend. Edward Elgar Publishing (Chaps. 3 and 4).

    Google Scholar 

  • Davies, G. (2020). The effects of covid-19 risk deepening secular stagnation. Financial Times.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gong, Y. (2019). The conversation between Min Zhu and Alan Greenspan: The secret of global recession. Caijing Magazine, 27.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenspan, A. (2019). Capitalism in America: A history (pp. 374–378). CITIC Press Group.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, A. (2004). On economic progress and declining population growth. Population and Development Review, 30(2), 329–342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hara, N., et al. (2006). The new estimates of output gap and potential growth rate. Bank of Japan Review. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/rev_2006/data/rev06e03.pdf, downloaded on August 3, 2020.

  • Jordà, Ò., Schularick, M., & Taylow, A. M. The great mortgaging: Housing finance, crises and business cycles. Economic Policy, 31(85), 107–152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1978). Some consequences of a declining population. Population and Development Review, 4(3), 517–523.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu, Y., & Cai, F. (2014). The impact of changes in population structure on potential growth rate: A comparison between China and Japan. The Journal of World Economy, 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mian, A. R., Straub, L., & Sufi, A. (2020). The saving glut of the rich and the rise in household debt. NBER, working paper, no. 26941, April 2020; Mian, A. R., & Sufi, A. (2015). House of debt (Z. He & Z. Xing, Trans.). CITIC Publishing House.

    Google Scholar 

  • Minami, R. (1968). The turning point in the Japanese economy. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 380–402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Summers, L. H. (2018). The age of secular stagnation: What it is and what to do about it. Foreign Affairs, 95(2), 2–9; Secular stagnation and macroeconomic policy. IMF Economic Review, 66, 226–250.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tett, G. (2020). Expect a bank-shaped recovery. Financial Time.

    Google Scholar 

  • The Global Trade Alert. (2020). The GTA reports, May 2020. https://www.globaltradealert.org/reports.

  • World Bank et al. (2017). Global value chain development report 2017: Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs on economic development (pp. iii–iv). International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank. Forward by M. Spence.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Trade Organization et al. (2019). Global value chain development report 2019: Technological innovation, supply chain trade, and workers in a globalized world. Forward by M. Spence.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu, Z., Jia, H., & Yang, G. (2017). The third horse that drives economic growth: The perspective of economics and the perspective of statistics. International Economic Review, 2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie, F., Cai, F., & Li, X. (Eds.). (2020). The New Journey of China’s economic and social development. China Social Sciences Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fang Cai .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2024 China Social Sciences Press

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Cai, F. (2024). How Does China Avoid “Secular Stagnation?”. In: Challenges and Solutions to China’s Modernization Process. China Insights. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-9141-9_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics