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How Does China Avoid “Secular Stagnation?”

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Challenges and Solutions to China’s Modernization Process

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In my previous studies, I reiterated and scrutinized the fact that China’s pre-2010 high-speed economic growth derived from its demographic dividend; hence, we can now conclude from the country’s negative growth of the working-age population that its demographic dividend has disappeared, and make bold predictions that its potential growth rate and real growth rate will also decline.

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  1. 1.

    Cai and Lu (2013).

  2. 2.

    Summers (2018).

  3. 3.

    Keynes (1978).

  4. 4.

    Hansen (2004).

  5. 5.

    Cai (2019).

  6. 6.

    World Bank et al. (2017).

  7. 7.

    World Trade Organization et al. (2019).

  8. 8.

    See more discussions in Chap. 9.

  9. 9.

    Mian et al. (2020).

  10. 10.

    Jordà et al.

  11. 11.

    The Global Trade Alert (2020).

  12. 12.

    Stephen Roach believes that the goal of U.S. decoupling from global supply chains is threefold: punish China for the coronavirus, eliminate a source of vulnerability in critical equipment production lines and bring back home, via reshoring, offshore platforms that have undermined and hollowed out domestic operations. Stephen Roach, “Don’t Blame Supply Chains,” Yale Global Online, May 7, 2020,

  13. 13.

    Davies (2020).

  14. 14.

    Tett (2020).

  15. 15.


  16. 16.

    Yang Du, Zhenzhen Zheng, Guangzhou Wang, Bao Lin, “Research on Medium- and Long-term Issues of Population Development and Aging,” in Xie et al. (2020).

  17. 17.

    See details in Chap. 2.

  18. 18.

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  19. 19.

    Hara et al. (2006).

  20. 20.

    Lu and Cai (2014).

  21. 21.

    Here, “troika” is more precise than “three horse-drawn carriages” to help readers understand. Troika is a Russian vehicle drawn by three horses abreast.

  22. 22.

    Wu et al. (2017).

  23. 23.

    Greenspan (2019).

  24. 24.

    Gong (2019).


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Cai, F. (2024). How Does China Avoid “Secular Stagnation?”. In: Challenges and Solutions to China’s Modernization Process. China Insights. Springer, Singapore.

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