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Governance Under Threat? AI in the Social Rehabilitation System of Ecuador: An Application of the Bayesian Model

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Developments and Advances in Defense and Security (MICRADS 2023)

Part of the book series: Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies ((SIST,volume 380))

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Abstract

Measuring the interaction between the prison population, including violence, intramural and extramural insecurity, and misconduct can be a complex task, as there are several factors to consider. Some key variables we will measure are: intra-prison violence, extramural violence, misconduct, population demographics, staffing, and prison infrastructure. Overall, measuring these variables can help identify patterns and trends of violence and misconduct within the prison population, which can inform the development of effective prevention and intervention strategies. The development of a Bayesian model requires specifying the conditional relationships between the variables identified in the above analysis. In the context of the prison population, the Bayesian model would aim to predict the probability of violent acts or misconduct from the observed values of the identified variables. Numerical values could be assigned to the variables, such as frequency counts or percentages, and used to calculate conditional probabilities in the model. Finally, an artificial intelligence-based application is proposed to support decision-making within the Social Rehabilitation System of Ecuador.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Technological University ECOTEC, Samborondon, 092302, Ecuador

    Diego Donoso & Gino Cornejo

  2. Technological University ISRAEL, Quito, 170516, Ecuador

    Erika Escobar

  3. UNAE University, Azogues, 030105, Ecuador

    Santiago Donoso

  4. Catholic University of Argentina UCA, 1107, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Patricia Vallejo

Authors
  1. Diego Donoso
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  2. Erika Escobar
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  3. Gino Cornejo
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  4. Santiago Donoso
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  5. Patricia Vallejo
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Diego Donoso .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Gab. 101, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, LISBOA, Portugal

    Álvaro Rocha

  2. Escuela Superior de Administración Pública – ESAP, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia

    Carlos Hernán Fajardo-Toro

  3. Barrio El Bosque, Escuela Naval Almirante Padilla, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

    José María Riola Rodríguez

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© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

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Donoso, D., Escobar, E., Cornejo, G., Donoso, S., Vallejo, P. (2024). Governance Under Threat? AI in the Social Rehabilitation System of Ecuador: An Application of the Bayesian Model. In: Rocha, Á., Fajardo-Toro, C.H., Rodríguez, J.M.R. (eds) Developments and Advances in Defense and Security. MICRADS 2023. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol 380. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-8894-5_6

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