CCICED Inputs to China’s E&D Actions

Abstract

Decisions regarding CCICED research work have been influenced by both demand- and supply-side considerations. This has never been an easy task for several reasons, including the four that follow. First, it has been vital to stay in tune with major shifts on the part of China’s leaders and the changing nature of China’s development needs and external drivers.

Decisions regarding CCICED research work have been influenced by both demand- and supply-side considerations. This has never been an easy task for several reasons, including the four that follow. First, it has been vital to stay in tune with major shifts on the part of China’s leaders and the changing nature of China’s development needs and external drivers. Close synchronization of CCICED work with China’s FYP objectives—as well as with other medium- and long-term Chinese planning efforts in particular sectors, such as China’s Medium- and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (2006–2020)—is necessary to remain relevant. Second, it is necessary to spot emerging problems, risks, and opportunities—at global or regional levels as well as nationally and sectorally—in order to signal trends that may require policy shifts. Third, the presence of recurring and evolving topics continues to be important to CCICED’s work and advice, even after 30 years of engagement. Finally, global perspectives, events, and various international pressures change and influence dominant paradigms for both problems and their solutions.

All of the factors described above need to be blended into workable research programs and useful policy recommendations. CCICED tries to use dynamic and adaptive approaches to ensure CCICED’s work is in line with China’s governmental priorities and plans but also sets the work into broader international contexts and ensures that CCICED is looking ahead. The way this has been carried out has varied over time, according to China’s own capacity and perceived needs.

The big picture of China’s evolving FYP process on E&D policy is provided in Box 4.1. It is a remarkable story that could be told in much greater detail than is possible in our CCICED at 30 report.¹ Our key intent here is to describe CCICED inputs and their uptake. The 7th FYP ended before CCICED began its activities, but already, during the 1980s, awareness-raising efforts had led to a limited number of environmental policies, for example, the first Environmental Protection Act enacted in 1979 and revised in 1989.² Further, environmental exploration over the 8 and 9th FYPs was perhaps at its most shocking, with the realization that the immense 1998 floods in the Yangtze River basin could be traced to deforestation and other aspects of poor land use. This led to a logging ban and enhanced efforts regarding forest and grassland restoration. The almost completely new-to-China topic of trade and environment/sustainable development was initiated by CCICED in 1995 and continued for the better part of a decade. This work received considerable policy attention within government and internationally as the PRC engaged with, and eventually joined, the WTO. CCICED identified the great potential of China’s wind and solar power in the late 1990s while coal burning was still on a rapid trajectory upwards.

FormalPara Box 4.1. “Big Picture” for China’s E&D focus related to FYPs

7, 8 and 9th FYPs explored the new field of E&D

10th FYP laid important groundwork for pollution control and other aspects such as ecological services

11th FYP emphasized the creation of a “Resource-efficient, Environmentally Friendly Society.”

12th FYP initiated a focus on “Green Development,” and China has taken this as its main action approach to E&D ever since

13th FYP highlighted “Ecological Civilization” as an important framework focus and as one of three main national priorities for this FYP

14th FYP (2022–2026) will set in place the Green Agenda for the third decade of the 21st century and well beyond, with major shifts such as preparing for peak carbon to occur before 2030, 2060 carbon neutrality, further investment in green technologies, pollution control, and ecological restoration. To an unprecedented degree, it will blend Chinese and international E&D priorities, including those for meeting China’s action on the UN 2030 SDGs

Stepwise efforts during the 9–11th FYPs made considerable progress on establishing what might now be considered a conventional early approach to environmental institutions with limited power inside and outside government to stop pollution and environmental degradation. The poor level of coordination between national and local governments on E&D was a stumbling block. In the race to build infrastructure, to meet rising demands for raw materials and energy, and to produce manufactured goods for domestic and export purposes, it is not surprising that environmental protection could not keep up with the rapid pace of economic growth impacts. While the concept of seeking a resource-efficient, environmentally friendly society in the 10 and 11th FYPs was valid, the actual capacity to deliver was still weak and not very well accepted across all parts of the government. CCICED was able to suggest many ways that environmental improvements could be successfully undertaken, as we will describe in Chap. 5.

In fact, the first decade of the new century was a time for discovery and experimentation, with many pilot efforts and a realization of new (to China) environmental technologies, environmental planning, and management tools. The ambitious UN Millennium Development Goals (UN MDGs) placed major attention on poverty reduction. China’s initiatives both before and after this global effort outpaced all other large developing nations. Major efforts were already well underway on re-greening damaged agricultural, forest, and pasture lands as one major element of poverty reduction. Applications of innovative environmental technologies started to show promise during the first decade, but the rapid rise of the heavy chemical industry, demand for steel, cement, and other building and infrastructure materials, plus a skyrocketing manufacturing capacity continued to outpace environmental protection efforts. Environmental quality became a topic of great concern to the government, with public demands and many examples of poor local decision making on urban planning.

It was during the 12 and 13th FYPs that transformative change truly began to be realized with good results. The concept of ecological civilization was well introduced during the 12th FYP and in various innovative ways later.³ This integrative way to link problem solving, people, projects, and programs has taken hold in both central and local government circles, with the strong encouragement of President Xi Jinping. Green development is the action of choice for the implementation of ecological civilization values. These trends are documented in more detail in Box 4.2.

Starting in 2008, CCICED began to track progress annually and, in some detail, examine the E&D shifts in Chinese governmental policy and, to the extent possible, trace these to relevant CCICED recommendations. This very helpful effort, now undertaken by a small team linked to the Chief Advisors and supported via the China Office of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), provides the basis for many of the observations in our report.⁴, ⁵

FormalPara Box 4.2. Major Domestic Trends on E&D Within China’s FYPs from 1986 to 2021 and Some Linkages to CCICED Work

• 7th FYP (1986–1990). First “All-round Plan” for social and economic development. Very limited consideration of environmental matters. Coordinate economic development with reform. High production output focus, with combined 38% growth in agricultural and industrial output expected over 5 years. Annual growth rate of 7%. “Socialist ideological civilization” with “construction of material civilization” (pre-CCICED period.)

• 8th FYP (1991–1995). New phase of accelerated economic growth. Outputs of cement and coal highest in the world. Economy growth 11% per year. Major emphasis on large energy (e.g., Three Gorges Dam) and transportation infrastructure. 1,100 county-level cities opened to the outside world. New value-added tax (VAT) tax system. Emphasis on macroeconomic framework. Environment and economy relationships strongly emphasized in CCICED’s initial work plans.

• 9th FYP (1996–2000). Second phase of modernization drive to be completed. Population growth to be capped. 4X per capita GNP compared to 1980. And further doubling projected by 2010. Groundwork laid for WTO entry, including extensive CCICED studies on trade and environment. Yangtze 1998 flooding followed up with national logging ban and major grassland and tree planting programs for ecological restoration. Extensive CCICED work by CCICED on sustainable agriculture, natural resource economics, biodiversity conservation needs, and western China regional development.

• 10th FYP (2001–2005). High growth rates emphasized with secondary industries seeking 51% of GDP. “Socialist Market Economy.” Continued high growth in economic growth rates. Emphasis on expansion of industrial sector by 51%. Very high material consumption. First overall focus on environment. Forest cover to be 18.2%. Urban green rate to be 35%. Total amount of rural and urban pollutant discharges to be reduced by 10% compared to 2000. Population to be capped at no more than 1.33 billion by 2005. CCICED emphasis on reducing SO_x from coal burning in power plants, industrial operations, and homes. Intensive CCICED effort on sustainable agriculture, sustainable industrialization, and macroeconomic approaches for environmental protection.

• 11th FYP (2006–2010). Service sector emphasis in the economy. Urbanization rate increased to 47% by 2010. First really major effort to include a comprehensive approach to E&D. Circular economy. Forest cover to be 20% in 2010. Enhanced efficiency of irrigation water use. Total discharge of pollutants set at 10% reduction. Water consumption per unit of industrial added value to be reduced by 30% over 5 years. 20% reduction in carbon intensity per unit GDP (set in 2009). First national climate change strategy. Strengthened eco-compensation effort. Efforts to cap coal consumption. China becomes world’s largest wind power domestic market. Economic stimulus package in 2008 after global financial meltdown includes some funding increases for environment. Ecological Civilization concept introduced by President Hu Jintao in 2007. CCICED introduced recommendations on a low-carbon economy, carbon intensity reduction, renewable energy sources, ecosystem restoration and protection, ecological services, circular economy, integrated river basin development (Yangtze River), green environmental technology innovation, and transportation.

• 12th FYP (2011–2015). Economic emphasis on equitable distribution of wealth, especially between rural and urban, increasing domestic consumption, and an important shift towards inland and rural sustainable development. Urbanization rate of 51.5%. Target of 8% annual GDP growth. Greater emphasis on social and safety nets. Greater emphasis on expanded environmental protection (War on Pollution; spatial planning, protection of ecological services, waste management systems, green buildings, etc.) Improved environmental protection law. Emphasis on green technology expansion. “Green is Gold” and Ecological Civilization promoted as a way of moving beyond conventional GDP thinking. CCICED’s major emphasis is on three main components of War on Pollution (air, water and soil), green economy, and green development. Regional green development, greater emphasis on innovation tools including ecological redlining, eco-compensation, and a focus on major aspects of governance such as better laws, standards, risk management, public participation, and CSR. Examination of ocean sustainability issues and sustainable urbanization.

• 13th FYP (2016–2021). Severe economic impacts of COVID-19 during early to mid-2020. China’s “greenest” FYP. Focus on innovation and green tech industries, including digital technologies, major shift to electric vehicles, battery technologies, more efficient renewable energy generation, etc. Green financial system. Focus on ecological needs, including green cities and ecological conservation red lining. Yangtze River Economic Belt shifted towards green development and ecological protection. Green BRI initiatives started. Environment and natural resource institutional improvements. Ecological Civilization is emphasized for all sectors and, in 2018, was written into China’s Constitution. Emphasis of CCICED on various elements related to green development and ecological civilization priorities, with many, such as sustainable production and consumption, linked to global environmental priorities. They are well documented in the CCICED Phase VI Capstone report. Important contributions were provided on carbon peaking and neutrality, national carbon market, energy efficiency, national standards, low carbon manufacturing, ecology and biodiversity conservation.

Utilization of Advice from CCICED Phase I (1992–1996)

CCICED’s first 5 years provided a solid base of findings that formed the foundation for many specific policy outcomes well into later years of CCICED work. A list of 16 major Phase I CCICED recommendations⁶ is shown in Box 4.3. In bold text, we have added selected later policy actions linked to each recommendation. CCICED does not claim full credit for all these actions. Rather, we celebrate that important policy decisions happened for each recommendation and in directions we believe to be very positive.

Box 4.3. Selected CCICED Phase I Recommendations and Some Later Chinese Policy Actions

Make the environment central to economic and social policy decisions at their start. 13th FYP (2016–2020).

Allocate adequate funding to implement environmental laws, standards, and regulations. War on Pollution (2014 onward) and especially for air pollution control.

Introduce environmental impact assessments (EIAs) more widely in project assessments. PRC Environmental Impact Law introduction and revisions (2002–2016).

Set priorities as identified in China’s Agenda 21. Symbolized many needs for new approaches and influenced major shifts such as adoption of the polluter-pays principle (PPP), plus indirect grounding for broad-based ecological civilization and China and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (1994 onwards).

China must leapfrog over mistakes made by other countries through technology choices and management approaches, drawing upon technologies and best practices elsewhere. China Midterm S&T Program, including emphasis on environmental technologies (1995–2020).

Adoption of cleaner production and technologies. Cleaner Production Promotion Law (1992) and China National Cleaner Production Center (CNCPC) transforming efforts to a pollution prevention strategy (1994 onwards).

Seek balance between “command-and-control” regulation and “market-based” instruments. China’s Environmental Protection Law revision (2015) required direct use of fiscal assistance, taxation, prices, and green procurement to meet pollutant reduction goals and encourage the development of environmental industries; 2021 national carbon trading system.

Introduce levies, licences, meaningful pollution charges, and other environmental fees. PRC Environmental Protection Tax Law (2018).

Reform prices for important natural resources, and incorporate environmental factors when establishing prices for coal, water, timber, etc. Major reform of energy source pricing (2013).

Remove inappropriate subsidies. Ongoing efforts only partially successful since ~2001 involving state-owned enterprises, ocean fisheries, agriculture, green technology products, fossil fuels, paper industry, etc. Reasonable success after 2013.

Keep improved use of coal and other energy at the heart of E&D. Transformative action became significant once the low-carbon economy and climate change became important in China in 2009. First, carbon intensity reduction targets for China were announced by Hu Jintao during the UN General Assembly session in September 2009.

Seek out alternative energy technologies. Wind and solar revolution (2008–2009 to present).

Prevent trade in endangered species. China’s ban on elephant ivory trade (buy or sell) (December 2017); ban on terrestrial wildlife trade and consumption in response to COVID-19 (February 2020).

Extend the network of protected areas and enforce legislation to safeguard these areas. 1994 Regulations for Nature Reserves provided a system-wide framework; and, separately in 1994, the first national biodiversity action plan; by 2009, 15% of China protected as nature reserves.

Enlist local communities in restoration of degraded habitats to ecological productivity. Grain for Green Program designed to retire farmland susceptible to soil erosion and to prevent flooding. (1999–present); Zhejiang “ecological province” Green Rural Revival Program and River Chief System (Anji County 2003-2005 to present); eco-compensation support for smallholders for land restoration and payment for ecological services (1995–2005 and to present).

Improve environmental monitoring and develop a sound environmental quality database. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre (CNEMC) established in 1980, but comprehensive monitoring network mainly developed from 2010 onwards.

The point to be emphasized here is the length of time for full uptake of CCICED recommendations. Occasionally, a policy outcome can be realized in a matter of months, but this is the exception. More generally, there can be years for stepwise change and even a decade or more for major transformative policy shifts. Premier Wen Jiabao, in his meetings with CCICED members on various occasions, noted the high value of having an organization and individuals familiar with Chinese situations and decision making, given the need for longer-term thinking and action.

Two Outlook Initiatives: Assessing Emerging Challenges, Risks, and Opportunities

There has never been a shortage of new challenges and risks to be assessed. Similarly, opportunities and suggestions for new topics are not in short supply. One of the responsibilities of the CCICED Chief Advisors is to make sense of the many possibilities about which high-priority topics should be suggested for new study topics. Input is provided from many sources, including ministers and other officials, CCICED members, donors and other partner organizations, researchers, and other groups within and outside of China. Advice on future activities also has come from strategic salons⁷ organized by the Secretariat or others, CCICED roundtables, and sometimes directly from suggestions by the State Council. It is a dynamic process that can be accompanied by advisors’ retreats, field visits within or outside China, and, of course, AGM discussions, etc.

• (1) 2006—Reflections on progress and key challenges to 2020

Special CCICED initiatives have been carried out to assess general progress and needs for China over specific time frames. A particularly interesting initiative was a 2005–2006 Special Task Force that was both reflective concerning the first 15 years of CCICED work and forward-looking to address key E&D challenges to 2020. The co-chairs for this initiative were the first Chinese CCICED Chair, Mr. Song Jian, and Madame Huguette Labelle, the International Executive Vice-Chair from 1994 to 1999. The report was issued as a Chinese book. Seven challenges were identified (see Box 4.4), all characterized as “complex system issues where no single intervention is likely to be fully effective as a solution. They are interactive with each other, and all have major economic implications.”⁸ The intent was to provide early warning to the Government of China and also to help shape CCICED’s future research directions.

Box 4.4. Seven E&D challenges facing China to 2020 (Source: from CCICED Special Task Force on Review and Prospects, 2006)

Challenge 1. China will be faced with serious energy security, severe air pollution, and increasingly heavier pressure on reduction of emission of greenhouse gases.

Challenge 2. Increasingly severe water crisis.

Challenge 3. A continuous and rapid increase of municipal waste, industrial waste, and hazardous waste.

Challenge 4. Degraded ecosystems and loss of biodiversity.

Challenge 5. Emerging environmental issues such as indoor pollution, ground-level ozone, mercury pollution, environmental health problems, soil pollution, and environmental problems associated with information technology, biotechnology, and nanotechnology.

Challenge 6. Continuously worsening global environment.

Challenge 7. China’s increasing external environmental impacts from a rapid growth economy.

These challenges indeed proved to be very valid and, over the 15 years that followed, they cost China many billions of dollars/RMB to address them. CCICED carried out 60 or more studies and other initiatives regarding these challenges from 2007 to the present and has undertaken various efforts to understand linkages among them.

• (2) 2015—A “Very Transformative Year” for China’s E&D and CCICED’s high-level examination of China’s 13th FYP E&D needs

If one year of CCICED’s 30 could be chosen as the most significant time to witness a turnaround in China’s E&D relationship, it likely would be 2015. That point in time was highly significant for starting to move from “tipping point to turning point” on the politically significant issue of air pollution. The revised Environmental Protection Act came into effect. After being enshrined in the CPC Constitution in 2012, ecological civilization was highlighted in two “Opinions” jointly produced by the CPC and China’s State Council (April and September 2015.) They provided detailed guidance on eight systems for policy transformative action, covering the still novel approach of green development as the means to achieve ecological civilization.

CCICED believed that it was timely to assemble a special international advisory meeting to provide observations about the longer-term road ahead and identify specific recommendations during a meeting directly with CCICED’s Chair, Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, as input to national planning for the 13th FYP. The small, international high-level group included a mix of CCICED members and various leading figures.⁹ All participated in their individual capacity. A senior Chinese team prepared the background materials, including a long list of topics and questions. The chair of the meeting was the recently appointed MEP Minister and Chinese Executive Vice-Chair of CCICED’s Bureau, Mr. Chen Jining. The consultative meeting was structured around discussion rather than presentations and produced a very interesting set of materials focused on observations concerning the existing situation (Box 4.5) and recommendations for the 13th FYP (Box 4.6) presented in the meeting with Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli and passed on to the State Council.

This was the first time this particular approach had been used by CCICED, and it was very successful. The effort was reinforced during the 2015 CCICED AGM through the theme of Enabling Governance Capacity for Green Transformation. One of the most significant recommendations was to innovate a green financing system during the 13th FYP in order to drive and finance China’s green transformation. The uptake of this recommendation was swift and quite successful. Within months, the whole financial sector began complying, with direct encouragement from President Xi Jinping.

Box 4.5. Observations about the existing Chinese E&D situation in 2015 (Source: from the June 2015 CCICED International Advisory Meeting on Environment and Development for China’s 13th Five-Year Plan)

China’s transformation of development patterns is still a long and difficult process with many issues and challenges.

First, insufficient, unbalanced, and low-level development is still the fundamental problem facing China. There is no fundamental change in the irrational economic structure and low resource utilization rate; enormous challenges still remain to coordinate the relationship between economic development and environmental protection.

Second, ecological and environmental carrying capacity has reached or exceeded its limits. Air and water quality have been continuously burdened with excessive discharges, becoming a bottleneck constraint for China’s economic development.

Third, other social challenges, such as population, poverty, and health risks, are intertwining with environmental problems and together pose serious challenges to social governance.

Fourth, lock-in effects from conventional urbanization processes have become more obvious, and increased urbanization can bring in more resource and environmental pressures.

Fifth, new environmental challenges are emerging from China’s increased obligations for CO₂ emission reduction and more participation is expected in global sustainable development issues, as well as the expansion of supply chains in the region.

Sixth, new characteristics have emerged: environmental problems are becoming complex with the combination and intertwining of traditional pollutants and new pollutants. Environmental risks are becoming more imminent due to the historical accumulation of unsolved problems, which makes the overall improvement of environmental quality a complex, challenging, and long-term mission.

Seventh, the current environmental governance system and capability have yet to be able to cope with the above-mentioned challenges.

In the context of overall E&D challenges, as well as the national development strategy, environmental quality improvement has become the weakest link in the construction of the “well-off” society. Transformation of the economic development mode becomes the key and fundamental solution to mend this weak link and achieve grander targets.

The 13th FYP period is a critical window of opportunity for China to promote green transformation. By grasping this window of opportunity, China will lay out a solid foundation for sustainable development and the realization of the “China Dream” in the next 10–30 years; otherwise, China may lose its initiative of transformation and reform and pay much more in ecological and environmental costs for its development. To grasp this window of opportunity, the key is to emphasize the transformation of development mode and improvement of environmental quality.

Box 4.6. Abridged recommendations from CCICED’s June 2015 International Advisory Meeting on Environment and Development for China’s 13th five-year Plan

Participants noted that the opportunities associated with green development eventually will outweigh the challenges faced today. The 13th FYP is therefore a pivotal point in the transformative change towards ecological civilization. It is essential to set “stretch targets” (objectives that force organizations to significantly alter their processes to involve new sets of paradigms) with innovation and the longer term in mind. Green development must be seen as a source of new jobs and the new economy. Governance capacity must be built within business and in the whole of society, not only within government.

Recommendations [note: only a sampling of each extended recommendation is provided here]:

Take a coordinated and comprehensive approach. Make environment a core pillar of development and a stimulus to China’s economy. Set clear national objectives for E&D rather than depending on individual departments. Establish improved cross-regional cooperation in pollution. Overall, set clear milestones for the 13th FYP and demonstrate how these can be of value for initiating longer-term action.

Strengthen and rationalize institutional roles. Match fiscal strength to the scale of activities and avoid overinvestment. Clarify institutional arrangements for separating protection and exploitation aspects of natural resources and environmental issues. Improve independent supervision of E&D.

Accelerate the pace and efficiency of implementation. Move more quickly from “pilot project to general practice” and from “practice to habit.” Shift from “learning to leading.”

Link economy and environment. Build into the 13th FYP a new normal model of economics that is respectful of environmental needs does not trade off between the two. Shift taxes from labour onto environmental polluters.

Enhance natural capital. Consider nature as “green infrastructure.” Incorporate ecological redlining into land and water use planning and management. Build programs for business, government, and the public to understand dependence on natural capital. Focus on ecological restoration and natural resource renewal, including biodiversity. Strengthen eco-environmental accounting in national accounts.

Diversify regulatory approach. Develop regulations that cannot be easily avoided, ignored, or overruled. Create an enabling legal framework to encourage citizens and enterprises towards sustainable practices. Expand and strengthen green procurement. Supporting the best rather than fighting the worst for transformative change. Develop market-based approaches that include consideration of market-based failure and both suppliers and consumers. Build cap-and-trade pollution control in an adaptive fashion. Strengthen green taxation.

Expand efforts in business, financing, and investment. Strengthen the role of business as a partner of government in implementing green development. Expand the use of PPP models. Encourage new green products. Establish a green investment forum as a “safe place” for developing “enlightened self-interest” on the part of both enterprises and community. Engage with leading companies to change whole sectors. Foster the good, do not just get rid of the bad. Focus investment more clearly around sustainable green growth opportunities.

Improve sectoral action. Focus on three key areas: mobility, buildings, and food. Make modern agriculture a key contributor. Focus the greatest attention on newly emerging industries rather than supporting sunset industries. Use green certification processes for quality green products and to improve manufacturing. Emphasize practical applications such as water investment, energy efficiency, distributed power, green buildings, natural gas infrastructure, and parks.

“Going green while going global” and “Planetary Partnerships.” Ensure green strategies for BRICS Bank, AIIB, and BRI. Begin to shrink the ecological footprint of China. Build S–S cooperation for desertification, etc. Seek carbon capture and storage partnerships. Give public health and environment a higher profile in China’s international cooperation. Consider implications for China of the G7 pledge to complete “decarbonization” of their economies by the end of the twenty-first century. Prioritize fostering green industrialization when desired by African countries.

Even though the 2021 completion of China’s 13th FYP has taken place during “the pandemic of the century,” very significant progress has been achieved towards the country’s E&D goals. Perhaps for the first time, there has been a sense of genuine progress overall on green development, including meeting most FYP targets. By mid-2020, when the sky appeared very blue in many Chinese cities, partially from War on Pollution action but also a measure of closed factories and reduced automobile use related to COVID-19, it was possible to see a tantalizing glimpse into a low air pollution future. Alas, to some extent this pollution respite was short-lived once the economy restarted. But real gains are being made as current annual air pollution falls. Climate change continues to demonstrate its growing presence in many ways, including 2021 floods and rising sea levels threatening coastal infrastructure. Biodiversity within China continues to be threatened, along with many other land and water sustainability concerns. Even so, at the start of this new decade, there is a strong sense of hope that a genuine turning point is at hand.

A companion piece to our CCICED at 30 Report has been prepared by the CCICED Secretariat to review the topics and recommendations from CCICED Phase VI. This Capstone Report¹⁰ is rich in detail concerning more than 10 major research initiatives undertaken during the 2017–2021 period and their influence on Chinese policies. In addition, a “Fact Sheet” covering current policy frameworks and policies, as well as relevant CCICED recommendations, was produced as part of the Capstone Report. A very interesting part of this Fact Sheet is the section addressing crosscutting issues (see Box 4.7). Building capacity within CCICED to address such issues has taken time but is essential to both present and future perspectives on our work, and particularly to ensure they are in line with the government’s call for innovation.

Box 4.7. Four major crosscutting outcomes seen during CCICED Phase VI (Source: excerpt from CCICED 2021. CCICED Phase VI Outcomes and Impacts. Fact Sheet 2017–2021)

Four Crosscutting Outcomes:

China Now Boasts a Massive Green Finance Market.

China’s 14th FYP Calls to Develop a Green Technology System.

Major Growth Seen in Clean Energy and Consumption.

China’s BRI Int’l Green Development Coalition and BRI Green Development Institute.

Green Financing

• CCICED has played a leading role in the introduction, encouragement, and demonstration of green finance in China.

• In 2014, CCICED set up a Green Finance Task Force.

• CCICED’s annual policy recommendations have consistently called for progress on green finance based on policy research. Examples include establishing a National Green Development Fund; promoting green credit, green bonds, and green insurance; and establishing cross-departmental green finance coordination mechanisms.

• CCICED’s green financing recommendations were adopted by the central government and also incorporated into the 2015 G20 Summit agenda.

• In 2018, CCICED’s Policy Recommendations highlighted opportunities for green project financing through a “Greening the BRI” fund.

• In 2020, CCICED recommendations included adopting world-class standards and safeguards for BRI projects, increasing green bilateral and regional green Overseas Development Assistance, and other steps aimed at shifting investments away from carbon-intensive sectors in geographic areas of importance to biodiversity and local and Indigenous communities.

• In 2012, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) introduced green credit guidelines for banks.

• China now boasts a massive green finance market, with RMB 12 trillion in green credit available and about RMB 800 billion in green bonds issued.

Green Technology

• In 2014, CCICED recommended green technologies as a means to achieve a number of positive environmental outcomes, including clean coal technologies.

• In 2015, CCICED’s Policy Recommendations included the establishment of a National Green Development Fund, which was subsequently established in July 2020.

• In March 2021, China announced that its 14th FYP includes development of a green technology system to drive innovation.

• In 2018, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) promoted their Special Action on Power Demand-Side Management in the industrial field (2016–2020).

• At the December 2020 UN Climate Ambition Summit, China agreed to increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in power sector consumption to around 25%.

• Estimates indicate that between 2012 and 2019, clean energy consumption increased by 8.9& points to account for 23.4% of the total energy sector.

Green Urbanization and Consumption

• The 2018 CCICED Policy Recommendations proposes to shift traditional thinking, fully integrate green standards into green urban planning, and bring forward innovative solutions in combination with local realities.

• In December 2018, the General Office of the State Council issued the Plan for Pilot Development of Solid Waste-Free Cities. At the end of April 2019, MEE published a list of pilot solid waste-free programs. In May 2019, MEE issued the Guidelines for Compilation of Implementation Plan of Solid Waste-free Cities Pilot Programs and the Indicators for Solid Waste-Free Cities (tentative).

• NDRC promulgated the Key Tasks of New Urbanization 2019, which sets forth working requirements in 2019. It also puts forward that new urbanization should take into full consideration the actual bearing capacity of resources and the environment, stress coordinated development, make full use of intelligent IT means, conduct lean management and coordinate with the control of air pollution and other environmental problems.

• The 2019 CCICED Policy Recommendations stated that green consumption is one of the key measures for ecological civilization and should be included as a key task for the national-level 14th FYP.

• The 2020 CCICED Policy Recommendations proposed that green consumption sectors should be prioritized. To accomplish this, it will be necessary to increase the supply of green products and green services, including clothing, green food, green housing, transportation, and tourism.

• On March 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission of the State Council (NDRC) and MOJ released Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of a System of Regulations and Policies for Green Production and Consumption, which stipulates multiple tasks such as promoting green design, enhancing clean industrial production, developing recycling for the industrial economy, strengthening control of industrial pollution, advancing the development of clean energies, facilitating the green development of agricultural and service industries, boosting consumption of green products, and advocating for green lifestyles.

• In 2021, the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress adopted the Anti-Food Waste Law.

Green BRI

• Since 2015, CCICED’s annual policy recommendations have identified opportunities and tools to mitigate the ecological risks of the BRI.

• CCICED’s 2018 and 2020 Policy Recommendations encourage greening of the BRI.

• In 2017, China issued its Guidance on Promoting Green Belt and Road, which includes “a series of eco-environment risk prevention policies.”

• In 2019, China and other BRI partners launched the BRI International Green Development Coalition.

• In 2020, the BRI Green Development Institute was launched.

CCICED’s Ongoing “Outlook” Approaches

Considerable effort each year goes into providing a reasonably clear picture of the current state of play on E&D both in China and internationally. This informs CCICED members, researchers, and officials, etc., providing a picture of “hot topics,” emerging concerns, and sometimes, advice on what has been overlooked or deserves greater attention. Ultimately the work can inform not only the State Council through our recommendations but also provide relevant new knowledge to others in a more detailed way. This is done through a variety of means.

• (1) Selection of research topics and length/depth of studies

After the first two CCICED phases, it was apparent that the initial 5-year WG model was a luxury that could no longer be supported across the board since so many environmental problems were emerging with a need for quicker responses. However, the long-term commitment to major themes was very important in the first two CCICED phases since the subject of E&D was still quite new and, for many problems, a still relatively unexplored field.

Later, especially during Phases III to V, research teams were generally restricted to one to two years of TF work. Some activities had even shorter periods of 6 months to a year. These shorter SPSs rapidly became the norm. This system worked well to provide more tightly focused and timely advice. However, the approach sometimes lacked the necessary depth of work that was desirable.

During Phase VI, hybrid models were put in place, trying to get the best balance between the longer- and shorter-term approaches described above. There are very good examples of each type of approach as briefly described below and in much further depth in the next chapter.

Initial long-term (5+ years) WG model. Of the initial five WGs started in 1992, four continued right to the end of Phase II with adjustments to their topics in annual plans. This was the case with the WG on Pollution Control, which established a range of important starting points related to air and water emissions control, solid waste, and some pioneering research regarding GHG emissions in cities and sectors throughout China. The WG on Sustainable Energy for China flagged the great potential for renewable wind and solar energy in China at a time when this topic was still poorly understood in China. This WG also provided CCICED’s first major study on a strategy for transforming the use of coal in China through advanced clean technologies. The WG on Environmental Economics helped to build a solid understanding of resource accounting, pricing, subsidies, and other topics related to both environmental management and various natural resource economics subjects. The information was highly relevant to market-based regulation of environment and user-pay models, as well as economics related to biodiversity conservation. The WG on Biodiversity focused much of its effort on the need for ecologically based management of China’s rapidly expanding network of nature reserves and related topics such as problems of invasive species, illegal activities, and the need for nature-oriented livelihoods for people living near or within nature reserves. The WG on Trade and Environment was a very timely addition in 2005. During this first period of CCICED, it was sometimes necessary for research teams to seek at least a portion of their support. This led to some very helpful additions to our donor community for later phases of work.

TFs and SPSs. These models depend upon setting out very clear terms of reference, minimizing changes once the work is underway and ensuring compatibility among study team members. The following two SPS examples demonstrate the high value of working to a tight deadline for focused subjects of high interest to policy-makers.

A very successful early task force established in 2000 examined the performance of forest and grassland conservation and restoration programs, especially those in Western China. The TF had a 2-year period for its work, but even after the first year was able to provide important observations on serious problems with the programs. The final recommendations led to important reforms covering vast areas of China’s rural areas.¹¹ Cooperation with World Wildlife Fund (WWF) China in 2005–2006 examined the need for improvements in river basin management for the Yangtze River. This TF was an important effort because it introduced the concept of “living river” as applied in the Netherlands and elsewhere and highlighted a number of important considerations acted upon by the Government of China.

An important 2011 SPS on Mercury Management in China provided insights into the country’s policy actions needed prior to negotiations that led to the 2013 Minamata Convention. As the last of the three major components of the War on Pollution, soil pollution required attention to legal, scientific, practical remediation, and pollution prevention aspects. Policy action was needed for dealing with legacy site-based issues, imminent concerns requiring immediate responses, and protection to avoid future pollution, including groundwater issues. Priorities included the safety of agricultural lands and management of risks associated with contaminated areas of many types. The CCICED SPS covered these points and was both timely and pragmatic.

Hybrid TF and SPS approaches during CCICED Phase VI. As E&D problems become more multi-faceted, with numerous crosscutting topics, new ways to address CCICED research were promoted in Phase VI. This effort involved the establishment of four coordinating TFs: Global Governance and Ecological Civilization; Green Urbanization and Environmental Improvement; Innovation, Sustainable Production and Consumption; and Green Energy, Investment and Trade.¹² Within each TF, there are two or more SPSs on specific topics associated with the overall TF theme. A key concern with this approach is to extract maximum value related to the specific clusters of work. This hybrid model seems to work quite well, covering both short- and longer-term needs in research. What remains is a need to better link together the output of all four TFs in order to identify synergies and co-benefits across the whole range of CCICED’s research. Such linkages are important in producing outstanding recommendations.

An example where the new hybrid of TFs and SPSs has worked well is Phase VI CCICED research on Global Governance and Ecological Civilization. Three key research areas were established for 2017–2021, each related to serious global negotiations: Global Climate Governance and China’s Role; Post-2020 Biodiversity Conservation, taking into account China’s hosting of the CBD COP 15 in Kunming; and Sustainable Ocean Use. This last topic is described briefly below.

The declining condition of ocean habitats and fisheries, ocean pollution such as plastics, ocean and climate change relationships, and environmental impacts of the expanding “Blue Economy” are prominent examples of why ocean ecological and environmental concerns require integrated planning and management. CCICED first tried such an approach with a 2009–2010 TF on Sustainable Ocean Use. However, it became clear that much more work was still needed. Operating under the Global Governance Phase VI TF, a new SPS for Ocean Governance and Ecological Civilization carried out its mandate from 2017 to 2021. An SPS core team was established with five sub-teams, each covering a different aspect of ocean use (see Box 4.8) and working for varying lengths of time. In effect, this was a re-invention of our much earlier WG concept, but with one significant difference: Now there are clusters of SPSs, with each cluster operating under the guidance of one of the four task forces.

Box 4.8. Components of CCICED SPS on Ocean Governance and Ecological Civilization

CCICED 2017-2021 Ocean SPS

Overview Final Report

Global Ocean Governance and Ecological Civilization

(Presented at 2021 CCICED AGM)

Ocean SPS Sub-Reports

(Reports submitted to individual AGMs)

Integrated Ecosystem-based Ocean Governance

Living Marine Resources and Biodiversity

Marine Pollution, Especially From Land-Based Sources

Green Shipping and Maritime Operations

Renewable Energy Systems

Ocean Mineral Resources Extraction

Undoubtedly, there will be further thinking during CCICED Phase VII about how to extract more value by continuing to optimize research design. It is important to do so, given the strong interest in taking integrated approaches to policies and the urgency created by mainstreaming of E&D at both the national and international levels.

• (2) Modelling and scenario development

Many of CCICED’s initiatives involve various models, including those for economic projections and complex land-use allocations over time, drawing together information on important matters concerning choices for biodiversity conservation and for climate change or other topics related to longer-term changes. The most interesting and ambitious undertakings have been to examine scenarios for future potential situations in China or globally. Our first suggestion along these lines was made in 2002 to the State Council as follows:

CCICED recommends the development of scenarios that would explore the implications of developing a sustainable national economy. Such scenarios should draw upon quantitative and qualitative information on cross-sectoral impacts of sustainable development strategies, introduction of new technologies, and other factors. And the scenarios should take into account the impacts of various international financial, security, environment and development conditions.¹³

Most of our work on scenario initiatives was undertaken in the middle part of CCICED’s existence, notably during Phases IV and V. Studies were undertaken with some of the world’s leading experts in this field drawn from research organizations in Europe and elsewhere. While the scenario work proved to be stimulating, the most ambitious efforts simply did not seem to resonate with policy decision-makers to the extent expected. It is a puzzle why that should be the case.

One of the most interesting CCICED longer-term scenario efforts was the 2016 China Green Transition Outlook 2020–2050 TF. There were two reports from this group: a jointly prepared document related to China’s domestic E&D potential situation by 2050 and a report for CCICED prepared by our Dutch partner, PBL.¹⁴ The latter document covers global matters related to an array of possible outcomes based on China’s E&D efforts.

In October 2019, CCICED held a workshop on how scenario tools might provide added value to several recent SPSs (Green Finance, Global Green Value Chain, Major Green Technology Innovation and Implementation Mechanisms). Chinese and international experts on climate change and from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency on socio-economic scenario methods provided inputs on recent practices. CCICED continues to believe that scenario development can play an important role in our studies and recommendations.

• (3) China’s “Ecological Footprint”

The Living Planet Report¹⁵ prepared by the WWF in cooperation with the Global Footprint Network has garnered considerable attention throughout the world, and versions have been prepared for various countries. Starting from 2008, CCICED worked with WWF China and other partners to produce a series specifically addressing China’s ecological footprint as a tool to measure demand for and consumption of natural resources. The measure is intended to compare human consumption of resources in relation to the planet’s regenerative capacity (biocapacity). It is possible to compare different countries and to examine different consumption levels in varies parts of the country and in cities compared to rural areas. The report also was issued in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2015.¹⁶ This work is cited internationally and documents China’s growing ecological deficit and ecological debt. In the 2015 report, a number of suggestions were provided in relation to the construction of China’s ecological civilization. The work continues via the Ecological Footprint Network and will be of ongoing value, including information on China’s carbon footprint. Currently, China’s aggregate carbon footprint is the largest in the world as a consequence of its large population, its urban consumption habits, and its role as a major exporter of finished products.

• (4) CCICED Issue Papers

Since 2002, this document has been prepared for each AGM as a means of keeping CCICED members and others associated with the organization informed of current E&D issues within China and internationally. It is a means of providing an overview that fills in the gaps among the research reports for any particular year’s theme. Generally, 8 to 10 specific issues are identified and interpreted. This document is independently prepared by the Chief Advisors, with considerable review and input from the Chief Advisors Group and others. Often the paper takes a longer view of problems and is considered to be a thoughtful review of concerns that need to be aired. At the same time, the intent is to find new pathways and positive ways to solve problems.¹⁷

The 2014 Issues Paper From Tipping Point to Turning Point is one of the best examples. It was produced soon after China’s government had forcefully tackled the major environmental and political problem of the 2013 “tipping point” for air quality caused by PM_2.5 air pollution. How to reach a “turning point” towards improved conditions and avoid further tipping points is the question for this problem and others. The final point of this 2014 Issues Paper was that, especially for pollution, the information base at the time was not broad enough in scope. Further, the existing indicator set was inadequate for the task. We called for modelling and scenario development that was not available in China at the time for understanding and acting on ecological civilization needs in a timely fashion.