Abstract
This chapter aims to open a discussion on how China is likely to impact the future of the world in a context of unprecedented historical change. It is structured around two topics. First, it aims to present fresh perspectives on the central dynamics driving geopolitical, environmental, and technological change, and their intersection with China’s evolution, employing a cyclical view of history. The argument is that the present global uncertainty and instability are due to a transitional phase in human development at the intersection of two long cycles: the cycle of great-power rivalry, and the cycle of technological revolution. Second, it seeks to bring together two typically disparate analyses: exploring both the opportunities and challenges stemming from geopolitical, environmental, and technological shifts, and those emerging from China’s rise. It argues that China acts as an ambivalent power and proposes three pairs of scenarios to further dissect its ambivalence. This chapter concludes by introducing the key concept of ‘rivalry partners’, emphasising that in this new epoch of consecutive and intertwined disruptions, nations should not forego competition. Positive and healthy competition can drive innovation and prosperity if there are clear frameworks to guide diverse political systems to be increasingly competitive without being confrontational.
“The empire long divided must unite and long united must divide. Thus it has ever been.” (Luo and Brewitt-Taylor, 2002)
—Luo Guanzhong, Romance of the Three Kingdoms
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Notes
- 1.
The National Intelligence Council (2021).
- 2.
Bunde et al. (2022). p. 14.
- 3.
Ibid.
- 4.
Petty (2018).
- 5.
Yusoff (2019).
- 6.
Luo and Brewitt-Taylor (trans.) (2002).
- 7.
Dalio (2021).
- 8.
Bunde et al. (2022).
- 9.
Modelski (1978).
- 10.
Ibid.
- 11.
- 12.
The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China (2023).
- 13.
Chen (2021).
- 14.
Ibid.
- 15.
Ibid.
- 16.
Ibid.
- 17.
Ibid.
- 18.
Ibid.
- 19.
Ibid.
- 20.
Erickson and Collins (2021).
- 21.
Anderson (2018).
- 22.
Ibid.
- 23.
Earth et al. (2021).
- 24.
Feng (2020).
- 25.
Ibid.
- 26.
Ibid.
- 27.
Ibid.
- 28.
Bunde et al. (2022).
- 29.
Dalio (2021).
- 30.
Kissinger (1956).
- 31.
Leyre (ed.) (2018).
- 32.
Ibid.
- 33.
Johanson et al. (2019).
- 34.
- 35.
Almond (2016).
- 36.
Zhao (2016).
- 37.
The National Intelligence Council (2021).
- 38.
Kania (2020).
- 39.
Ni (2017).
- 40.
Fedasiuk (2021).
- 41.
Asaro (2020).
- 42.
Kania (2020).
- 43.
The National Intelligence Council (2021).
- 44.
Minges (2016).
- 45.
The South African Institute of International Affairs (2021).
- 46.
Ibid.
- 47.
Oikawa and Shimono (2021).
- 48.
Jia et al. (2021).
- 49.
Wang (2022).
- 50.
The National Intelligence Council (2021).
- 51.
Xinhua News Agency (2021).
- 52.
Ibid.
- 53.
The State Council of The People’s Republic of China (2020).
- 54.
Ibid.
- 55.
Xinhua News Agency (2021).
- 56.
Stauffer (2021).
- 57.
The National Intelligence Council (2021).
- 58.
Ibid.
- 59.
The Economist (2022).
- 60.
Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Graham (2021).
- 61.
Yergin (2020).
- 62.
Lewis (1999).
- 63.
Ibid.
- 64.
Ibid.
- 65.
Dalio (2021).
- 66.
Bunde et al. (2022).
- 67.
Ibid.
- 68.
Wan (2017).
- 69.
- 70.
Ibid.
- 71.
Lewis (2015).
- 72.
Wadhams (2021).
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Dong, J. (2023). A World at Stake: Competition, Destruction, or Cooperation?. In: Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6453-6_10
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