Abstract
2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the first year of fully marketizing NEVs. NEVs have become the development highlight of the automobile industry, and the industrial development presents a good situation with a double improvement of market scale and development quality. This report, based on the NEV access data on the National Monitoring and Management Platform, concludes China's promotion experience in the NEV industry from two dimensions of vehicle access characteristics and vehicle technology progress, which has important reference significance for us to predict the industrial development trend and promote the stable development of the NEV industry.
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2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the first year of fully marketizing NEVs. NEVs have become the development highlight of the automobile industry, and the industrial development presents a good situation with a double improvement of market scale and development quality. This report, based on the NEV access data on the National Monitoring and Management Platform, concludes China's promotion experience in the NEV industry from two dimensions of vehicle access characteristics and vehicle technology progress, which has important reference significance for us to predict the industrial development trend and promote the stable development of the NEV industry.
2.1 Development Status of China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Industry
The sales volume of NEVs in China in 2021 was 3,521,000, the annual access rate of NEVs on the National Monitoring and Management Platform was 77.5%, and the industry growth exceeded expectations.
According to the data of CAAM (Table 2.1), the sales volume of NEVs in China in 2021 was 3,521,000, with a YoY increase of 157.5%. The sales volume of passenger cars was 3,334,000, accounting for 94.7%. Among them, the sales of BEV-passenger cars increased significantly by 173.5% on a year-on-year basis to 2,734,000, i.e., 77.6% of the total sales of NEVs; the sales of PHEV-passenger cars were 600,000, with a YoY increase of 143.2%. Compared with last year, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles increased by 5.3% to 187,000, mainly due to the rapid growth of BEV-commercial vehicles.
According to the access data of the National Monitoring and Management Platform in 2021, the annual access volume of NEVs (excluding PHEVs) in 2021 was 2,732,000, with an annual access rate of 77.6%. The annual access volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 183,000, with the access rate up to 97.9%. Among them, the access rate of BEV-commercial vehicles was 96.2%, and due to the delay in access to the National Monitoring and Management Platform, the access rate of PHEV-commercial vehicles and FCEV-commercial vehicles exceeded 100%.
In 2021, the monthly sales of NEVs hit record highs, and the market penetration curve rising accelerated.
China's NEVs entered a new stage of accelerated development in 2021, with the monthly sales significantly higher than that in 2020 (Fig. 2.1), and the monthly sales of NEVs repeatedly hit record highs. In December 2021, the monthly market sales of NEVs reached 531,000. Driven by the enrichment of product supply and the gradual improvement of consumer recognition, the market demand for NEVs remained robust.
The monthly market penetration curve rising of NEVs accelerated, and the industry's tipping point came. According to the trend of the monthly market penetration rate of NEVs in 2021 (Fig. 2.2), after June 2021, the monthly market penetration rate of NEVs remained above 12%, and in December, it reached the highest level in the whole year to 19.1%.
According to the trend of monthly access characteristics of NEVs on the National Monitoring and Management Platform (Fig. 2.3), the monthly access volume of NEVs in 2021 was significantly higher than that in each month in 2020. The access volume of vehicles grew rapidly and synchronously with the growth of the NEV market. Judging from the changes in monthly access, in January and February 2021, the access rate of NEVs showed apparent large-scale access, and the access volume of NEVs was significantly higher than the sales of NEVs; in Q4 of 2021, the access volume of NEVs showed a noticeable tail-raising trend.
2.2 Overall Access Characteristics
Based on the cumulative access characteristics of NEVs and vehicle access characteristics over the years on the National Monitoring and Management Platform, this report focuses on such dimensions as market concentration, production concentration, and regional concentration, which is of great significance for summing up the promotion experience of the NEV industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry.
2.2.1 Overall Access Characteristics of Vehicles
As of December 31, 2021, 6,655,000 NEVs had been accessed to the National Monitoring and Management Platform, including 5863 models accessed by 306 enterprises. From different vehicle types (Fig. 2.4), the access volume of passenger cars, buses, and special vehicles was 5,708,000, 443,000, and 504,000, respectively, accounting for 85.8%, 6.6%, and 7.6%, respectively, with passenger cars dominating the proportion.
According to the cumulative access characteristics of vehicles in application scenarios, the cumulative access volume of private passenger cars accounted for more than half. As of December 31, 2021, the cumulative access volume of private passenger cars reached 4,059,000, accounting for 61.0% of the total access volume of vehicles to the National Monitoring and Management Platform, followed by official vehicles, rental cars, logistics vehicles, and urban buses, with cumulative access volume of 655,000, 645,000, 480,000 and 378,000 respectively, accounting for 9.8%, 9.7%, 7.2%, and 5.7% respectively.
2.2.2 Vehicle Access by Region
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1.
Characteristics of Vehicle Promotion Concentration by Province
The number and access share of provinces with cumulative access exceeding 300,000 vehicles increased significantly in 2021 compared with the previous two years.
Judging from the cumulative access volume of NEVs in provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) on the National Monitoring and Management Platform (Table 2.2), the number of provinces with cumulative access exceeding 300,000 vehicles was increasing yearly. In 2021, seven provinces/cities had cumulative access exceeding 300,000 vehicles, namely Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu. The cumulative access volume of vehicles in the above provinces/cities were 3,875,000, accounting for 58.3% of the access volume in China.
In 2021, the promotion scale of NEVs in the TOP10 provinces had increased rapidly, and the promotion and application effect in Guangdong was significant.
In the past three years, the promotion of NEVs in all provinces of China has achieved remarkable results (Fig. 2.5), and the access volume of NEVs in the TOP10 provinces has increased rapidly in 2021. By the end of 2021, a total of 4,645,000 NEVs had been accessed in the TOP10 provinces, accounting for 69.8% of the access volume in China, where Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai ranked among the top three, and by the end of 2021, 770,000 NEVs had been accessed in the three provinces/cities, accounting for 11.6% of the access volume in China.
According to the proportion of NEV promotion-type structures in each province (Fig. 2.6), the cumulative access proportion of new energy passenger cars in Guangxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shandong was over 90%, among which Guangxi was dominated by the promotion of BEV-small passenger cars, with the cumulative access accounting for 95.12%.
In the field of new energy vehicles by type, the promotion of vehicles by type in Guangdong ranked first in the country.
According to the cumulative access characteristics of vehicles by type over the years (Table 2.3), new energy passenger cars’ cumulative access volume was obviously higher than that of buses and logistics vehicles. According to the changes in the cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars over the years, the cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars in the TOP5 provinces increased from 1,125,000 in 2019 to 2,690,000 in 2021, and that in the TOP10 provinces increased from 1,671,000 in 2019 to 4,085,000 in 2021.
According to the changes in the cumulative access characteristics of new energy buses over the years, the cumulative access volume of new energy buses in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Hunan ranked in the forefront, and the cumulative access volume of new energy buses in the TOP5 provinces increased from 123,000 in 2019 to 164,000 in 2021, and that in the TOP10 provinces increased from 195,000 in 2019 to 266,000 in 2021.
According to the changes in the cumulative access characteristics of new energy special vehicles over the years, the cumulative access volume of new energy special vehicles in the TOP5 provinces increased from 166,000 in 2019 to 253,000 in 2020, and that in the TOP10 provinces increased from 241,000 in 2018 to 369,000 in 2020.
The regional concentration of NEVs by type showed an overall downward trend.
According to the access concentration of vehicles by type over the years (Table 2.4), the cumulative access concentration of various types of NEVs in the TOP3, TOP5, and TOP10 provinces showed an overall downward trend yearly. Among them, the proportion of cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars in the TOP10 provinces decreased from 72.4% in 2019 to 71.6% in 2021, that of new energy buses in the TOP10 provinces decreased from 61.4% in 2019 to 59.9% in 2021, and that of new energy special vehicles in the TOP10 provinces decreased from 77.3% in 2019 to 73.4% in 2021. The regional concentration of new energy special vehicles was relatively higher than that of new energy passenger cars and buses.
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2.
Characteristics of Vehicle Promotion Concentration by City
In 2021, the promotion scale of NEVs in the TOP10 cities had increased rapidly, and the promotion effect in first-tier cities was significant.
In the past three years, the promotion scale of NEVs in the TOP10 cities had increased rapidly (Fig. 2.7). By the end of 2021, 2,952,000 NEVs had been accessed in the TOP10 cities, accounting for 44.4% of the access volume in China. Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Guangzhou ranked at the forefront Regarding cumulative access volume of NEVs, and by the end of 2021, 1,784,0000 NEVs had been accessed, accounting for 26.8% of the access volume in China.
According to the proportion of NEV promotion-type structures in the TOP10 cities (Fig. 2.8), the cumulative access proportion of new energy passenger cars in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Hefei was over 90%; the cumulative access proportion of new energy commercial vehicles in Shenzhen and Chengdu accounted for more than 20%, and the new energy special vehicle was the primary type promoted.
By the vehicle type, the promotion of NEVs in each city has its own characteristics.
According to the cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars in the TOP10 cities (Fig. 2.9), by the end of 2021, the cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen ranked among the forefront, with 498,000, 389,000 and 366,000 respectively, accounting for 8.7%, 6.8%, and 6.4% respectively of the access in China. According to the year-on-year growth rate of new energy passenger car access in each city (Fig. 2.10), the new energy passenger car market in Suzhou, Changsha, Wenzhou, and Zhengzhou proliferated in 2021. Among them, in 2021, the access volume of NEVs in Suzhou had the highest year-on-year growth rate, up to 245.0%.
According to the cumulative access characteristics of the TOP10 cities in the field of new energy buses (Fig. 2.11), by the end of 2021, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai ranked the top three in China, with a cumulative access volume of 23,000, 17,000 and 16,000 vehicles respectively, accounting for 5.1%, 3.7%, and 3.6% respectively of the access volume in China.
According to the year-on-year growth rate of new energy bus access in the TOP15 cities in China in 2021 (Fig. 2.12), the annual growth rate of new energy bus access in Kunming, Shenyang, and Wuhan in 2021 was faster, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than three times.
According to the cumulative access characteristics of the TOP15 cities in the field of new energy special vehicles (Fig. 2.13), by the end of 2021, the cumulative access volume of new energy special vehicles in Shenzhen was significantly higher than that in other cities, up to 88,000 vehicles, accounting for 17.4% of the access volume in China.
In 2021, the annual access volume of new energy special vehicles in the TOP15 cities in China increased year-on-year (Fig. 2.14). The access growth rate of new energy special vehicles in Quanzhou, Chongqing, and Shanghai in 2021 was significantly higher than that in other cities, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 2.5 times.
2.2.3 Market Concentration
In the past three years, the concentration of NEV access characteristics of the TOP10 enterprises by field had shown an overall downward trend, and the access volume of typical enterprises was outstanding.
From the cumulative access characteristics of different types of vehicles, in the field of passenger cars, the cumulative access volume of the TOP10 enterprises increased from 1,563,000 in 2019 to 3,657,000 in 2021, and the market concentration decreased from 67.7% in 2019 to 64.1% in 2021 (Table 2.5). Among them, BYD performed noticeably well. By 2021, BYD had 1,014,000 new energy passenger cars accessed, accounting for 17.8% of the cumulative access volume of new energy passenger cars in China.
In the field of new energy buses, the cumulative access characteristics of the TOP10 enterprises increased from 220,000 in 2019 to 308,000 in 2021, and the market concentration decreased from 69.6% in 2019 to 69.5% in 2021. Yutong Bus ranked first Regarding promotion volume. As of December 31, 2021, Yutong Bus had 108,000 new energy buses accessed, accounting for 24.3% of the cumulative access volume of new energy buses in China.
In the field of new energy special vehicles, the cumulative access characteristics of the TOP10 enterprises increased from 179,000 in 2019 to 269,000 in 2021, and the market concentration decreased from 57.3% in 2019 to 53.5% in 2021. Dongfeng Motor had 66,000 new energy special vehicles accessed, accounting for 13.1% of the cumulative access volume of new energy special vehicles in China.
From the change in the concentration of access volume of different types of vehicles in each enterprise (Table 2.6), the concentration of vehicle access volume of bus enterprises and special vehicle enterprises in the TOP5 and TOP10 sub-fields showed an overall downward trend; in the field of passenger cars, due to the strong sales growth of Tesla, SGMW, BYD and other star models, the concentration of enterprises in 2021 increased compared with that in 2020.
2.2.4 Production Concentration
In the field of passenger cars and special vehicles, the production of the leading provinces accounts for a relatively large proportion; in the field of buses, the production of major provinces is relatively stable, and the regional concentration of buses has shown an overall downward trend over the years.
From the production of vehicles of different types over the years (Table 2.7), the production of new energy passenger cars in the leading provinces accounted for a relatively large proportion. In 2021, the production of new energy passenger cars in Shanghai, Guangxi, and Guangdong ranked the top three, accounting for more than 15%, respectively. In the field of new energy passenger cars, the production proportion of new energy passenger cars in the TOP3 provinces, TOP5 provinces, and TOP10 provinces was on the rise, mainly because in the past two years, the production bases of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Tesla series models, and BYD's best-selling models were distributed in Shanghai, Guangxi, and Guangdong respectively.
In the field of new energy buses, the production concentration of new energy buses in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu was high in 2021, 16.1%, 13.5%, and 13.2%, respectively. From the change of production concentration in the recent three years, the production concentration of new energy buses in the TOP5 provinces showed a slight downward trend (Table 2.8).
In the field of new energy special vehicles, the production of new energy special vehicles in Chongqing took an invincible lead in 2021, accounting for 26.8% of the production in China. From the production concentration of new energy special vehicles in the TOP3, TOP5 and TOP10 provinces, the production concentration of new energy special vehicles declined in 2021.
The production concentration of NEV enterprises showed an upward trend, and the production share of typical enterprises was outstanding.
According to the annual production concentration by enterprises (Table 2.9), in the field of passenger cars, BYD's production concentration reached 18.3% in 2021 due to the rich supply of NEV products, ranking first among all enterprises in China, followed by SGMW and Tesla (China), with the vehicle production concentration of 15.0% and 6.8% respectively. In the past three years, the production concentration of the TOP3, TOP5, and TOP10 enterprises in the new energy passenger cars field has shown an upward trend.
In the field of new energy buses, the production concentration of Yutong Bus and Zhongtong Bus ranked first, with 15.9% and 13.3%, respectively; in the field of new energy special vehicles, the vehicle production concentration of a Chongqing Ruichi enterprise reached 19.9%, ranking first. In commercial vehicles, the production concentration of the TOP3 and TOP5 enterprises showed an overall downward trend in 2021 (Table 2.10).
2.3 Historical Access Characteristics of NEVs to the National Monitoring and Management Platform
2.3.1 Historical Access Characteristics of NEVs
2,732,000 NEVs were accessed to the National Monitoring and Management Platform in 2021, with a substantial YoY increase.
From Table 2.11, 2,732,000 NEVs accessed the National Monitoring and Management Platform in 2021, an increase of 177.4% compared with 2020. According to the comparison between the annual access volume of NEVs and the annual sales of NEVs on the National Monitoring and Management Platform (Table 2.12), the access volume of NEVs in January and February 2022 was significantly higher than the sales of NEVs due to the appropriate delay in the time of NEV access to the National Monitoring and Management Platform, indicating that some NEVs were sold at the end of 2021. However, such vehicles’ access to the National Monitoring and Management Platform was in January and February 2022.
The access volume of BEVs accounted for a major proportion, and the volume in each month was more than 100,000 vehicles.
As shown in Table 2.13, 2,249,000 BEVs were accessed in 2021, accounting for 82.3%; the access volume of PHEVs and FCEVs was 481,000 and 2,000, respectively, accounting for 17.6% and 0.1%, respectively. According to the distribution of monthly access throughout 2021 (Fig. 2.15), BEVs’ access volume per month was over 100,000. In December 2021, the access volume of BEVs reached 358,000 and continued the high growth trend to 409,000 in January 2022. Some vehicles sold were affected by the delay in access time.
2.3.2 Access Characteristics of NEVs Over the Years by Region
In 2021, the access characteristics of NEVs in all regions of China showed a steady growth trend, with outstanding performance in East China.
East China ranks first regarding NEV access over the years. According to the access in different regions (Fig. 2.16), East China boasts the highest access with a volume of 1,077,000, accounting for 39.4%, followed by South China and Central China with a volume of 559,000 and 390,100, respectively, accounting for 20.5% and 14.3%.
According to the proportion of NEVs in different regions over the years (Fig. 2.17), the proportion of NEVs in East China, South China, Central China, and Southwest China increased in 2021 compared with 2017. Among them, the proportion of access in East China accounted for 39.4% in 2021, up 9.2% compared with 2017; the proportion of access in North China showed an apparent narrowing trend, accounting for 12.5% of the access volume in China in 2021, down 20.6% compared with 2017.
The consumer demand in cities of each tier is robust, and the access volume of NEVs in cities of different tiers grew rapidly in 2021; second-tier cities and below have excellent market potential.
According to the access characteristics of cities of different tiers over the years (Fig. 2.18), the consumer demand for cities of each tier had recovered steadily. In 2021, the access volume of NEVs in first-tier cities was the highest, with a volume of 1,040,000, up 1.4 times year-on-year; due to the low base, robust market demand, obviously improved user acceptance and other factors, the access volume of NEVs in other cities increased significantly year-on-year. The access volume of NEVs in fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities increased by 2.2 times and 2.3 times in 2021 compared with 2020.
From the proportion of access in cities of each tier over the years (Fig. 2.19), the proportion of access in first-tier cities had declined from 48.4% in 2017 to 38.1% in 2021, and that in second-tier cities and below proliferated with excellent market potential.
2.3.3 Access Characteristics of NEVs Over the Years by Application Scenario
In order to better study the characteristics of vehicle behaviors in key segments, seven segments, including private cars, e-taxis, taxis, cars for sharing, logistics vehicles, buses, and heavy-duty trucks, are selected by using the big data intelligent analysis technology from the National Monitoring and Management Platform as the key application scenarios for research. The vehicles in the main application scenarios are defined below:
Private cars: vehicles not for online ride-hailing service selected from vehicles with an inherent “private car” label in the National Monitoring and Management Platform as the research object for the private car segment.
E-taxis: vehicles for online ride-hailing service selected from vehicles with an inherent label of “private car,” “official car,” and “rental car” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform as the research object for the e-taxis segment.
Cars for sharing: vehicles for time-based rental service and long/short-term rental service filtered from vehicles with an inherent label of “rental car” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform as the research object for a segment of cars for sharing.
Taxis: vehicles with an inherent label of “taxi car” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform selected as the research object of the taxi segment.
Logistics vehicles: vehicles with an inherent label of “logistics vehicle” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform selected as the research object of the logistics vehicle segment.
Bus: vehicles with an inherent label of “bus” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform selected as the research object of the logistics vehicle segment.
Heavy-duty trucks: vehicles with an inherent label of “special vehicle” in the National Monitoring and Management Platform, with a total mass ≥ 12,000 kg according to the standard GA801-2014 of the Ministry of Public Security, selected as the research object of the heavy-duty truck segment.
From Table 2.14, in 2021, the access volume of private cars was 2,000,000, up 2.3 times year-on-year; that of e-taxis was 89,000; that of taxis was 124,000; that of cars for sharing was 89,000; that of logistics vehicles was 114,000, up 75.7% year-on-year; and that of buses was 54,000, down 10.% year-on-year.
Private purchase has become the main driver for market growth, and the market share of new energy private cars has reached a new high.
According to the National Monitoring and Management Platform data (Fig. 2.20), the proportion of access volume of new energy private cars showed a rapid growth trend. In 2021, the annual access volume of private cars accounted for more than 70% of NEVs, and private purchase has become the main driver for market growth. Comparatively speaking, the access share of other types of vehicles declined relatively in 2021. According to the changes in the past two years, the annual access share of e-taxis and cars for sharing increased slightly, while that of buses and logistics vehicles in commercial vehicles decreased in 2021.
Stimulated by the countryside NEV promotion policy and diversified product supply, the proportion of access volume of new energy private cars in cities of third-tier or below increased rapidly.
According to data on the National Monitoring and Management Platform (Fig. 2.21), the market share of first-tier cities decreased relatively. In contrast, the proportion of access volume of new energy private cars in cities of the third-tier or below increased rapidly in 2021 compared with the previous two years and accounted for 42.4%, with an increase of 12.23% compared with 2018, which is mainly driven by the countryside NEV consumption stimulation policies in various regions. The countryside NEV promotion has become a highlight of market growth.
From the proportion of access volume of new energy private cars in cities subject to purchase restrictions and cities not subject to purchase restrictions (Fig. 2.22), the market share of cities not subject to purchase restrictions increased significantly, accounting for 66.2%, with an increase of 9.2% compared with 2020.
2.4 Summary
In 2021, despite various factors such as rising prices of raw materials for power batteries, shortage of chips, and multiple outbreaks of epidemics in China, the sales of NEVs still ushered in a good start in the “14th Five-Year Plan”. The NEV industry has become the highlight in the development of the automobile industry, and has entered an accelerated development stage and further enhanced its leading role in the electrification of the global automobile industry. According to the vehicle access data on the National Monitoring and Management Platform over the years, the development of the NEV presents the following characteristics:
The market demand for NEVs is robust, and the industry development has entered a new stage driven by the market. As of December 31, 2021, 6,655,000 NEVs had been accessed to the National Monitoring and Management Platform, including 306 5863 models accessed by 306 enterprises. In typical provinces, Guangdong promoted more than 1,000,000 vehicles, becoming the vanguard in the NEV market promotion in China, accounting for 15.8%. Zhejiang and Shanghai had promoted more than 500,000 vehicles, accounting for more than 8.0% in China.
The regional concentration of NEV promotion is decreasing yearly, and the market share of second-tier cities and below is expanding rapidly. In 2021, the sales of NEVs in cities of each tier showed a significant increase, and the share of vehicle promotion in second-tier cities and below expanded rapidly, from 51.6% in 2017 to 61.9% in 2021. The scale of vehicle promotion in cities not subject to purchase restrictions, such as Suzhou, Wenzhou, Changsha, and Ningbo, had proliferated.
The private purchase has become the main driver for market growth, and the market share of new energy private cars has reached a new high. From the proportion of access volume of vehicles of different types over the years, the proportion of access volume of new energy private cars showed a rapid growth trend, and the market share of private purchases exceeded 70% in 2021. Stimulated by the countryside NEV promotion policy and diversified product supply, the market share of new energy private cars in cities of fourth-tier or below increased rapidly. In 2021, the market share of new energy private cars in fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities was 13.8% and 4.3%, respectively, up 6.3% and 2.7% compared with 2017.
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Wang, Z. (2024). Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. In: Annual Report on the Big Data of New Energy Vehicle in China (2022). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6411-6_2
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