The Basic Realization of Green Modernization by 2035

Abstract

The world has entered the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and China has become a leader and practitioner of innovative green modernization.

The world has entered the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and China has become a leader and practitioner of innovative green modernization. China’s basic national conditions determine the path of modernization with Chinese characteristics, and at the same time, it also determines that green modernization must be chosen to realize the path of modernization with Chinese characteristics, that is, there must be a modernization of the harmonious coexistence between man and nature. China has entered a new era of green innovation, ecological investment, and ecological surplus, forming a new green modernization pattern of harmonious development between man and nature. This is one of the core goals and distinctive features of modernization with Chinese characteristics.

General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection that “we must ensure that by 2035, the spatial pattern, industrial structure, production mode, and lifestyle of saving resources and protecting the environment will be generally formed, the quality of the ecological environment will be fundamentally improved, and the modernization of national governance system and governance capability in the field of ecological environment will be implemented, and the goal of building a beautiful China will be basically achieved. In this regard, we look forward to the main goals and development indicators of basically realizing green modernization with Chinese characteristics in 2035.”¹

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote green development and promote the harmonious coexistence of man and nature. It promoted to adhering to the concept that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, adhering to respect for nature, conforming to nature, and protecting nature, giving the priority to resource conservation and protection, as well as natural restoration, and guarding the boundaries of natural ecological security. It further promoted deeply implementing the sustainable development strategy, improving the overall coordination mechanism in the field of ecological civilization, building an ecological civilization system, promoting a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, and building a modernization where man and nature coexist in harmony.²

In 2021, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China” (the “Outline” for short) put forward the main quantitative indicators (5 items) and sub-priority indicators (9 items) of green ecology in 2025.³ The “Outline” is not only organically linked with the national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, but also supported by the long-range objectives through the year 2035. This is an important basis for this paper to quantitatively analyze the basic realization of modernization by 2035. To this end, this paper makes a mid- and long-term outlook on China’s 2025 and 2035 objectives and indicator trends, highlighting the development trend and main characteristics of its green modernization with Chinese characteristics.⁴

In particular, President Xi Jinping solemnly announced at the General Debate of the 73rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly that China will increase its nationally determined contribution, adopt more powerful policies and measures, and strive to achieve a peak in carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, and strive to achieve a carbon neutrality by 2060.⁵

The above is the basic basis for us to look forward to China’s ecological and environmental goals in 2035, especially in addressing the biggest challenge of global climate change. The comprehensive construction of modernization also includes the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, which can be called green modernization. The medium- and long-term outlook for China’s 2025 and 2035 objectives and indicator trends here highlights its development trend and main characteristics of green modernization with Chinese characteristics.⁶

5.1 Basic Establishment of a Clean, Low-Carbon, Safe and Efficient Energy System

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the promotion of green and low-carbon development, and promote the safe and efficient use of clean, low-carbon energy.⁷ “Clean” refers to reducing pollution emissions from energy production and consumption, especially air pollution emissions. “Low-carbon” refers to reducing the carbon intensity of energy consumption and achieving low carbon or no carbon. “Safety” refers to ensuring the safety of energy supply and consumption. “High efficiency” refers to reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon emissions.

Strictly control the total energy consumption. The basic national conditions of China’s energy situation are as follows: oil reserves account for 1.5% of the world’s total, natural gas reserves account for 4.5% of the world’s total, and coal reserves account for 13.3% of the world’s total. China’s oil production accounts for 4.7% of the world’s total, while oil consumption accounts for 16.4%, a gap of 11.7% points. China’s natural gas production accounts for 5.2% of the world’s total, while natural gas consumption accounts for 16.6%, a gap of 11.4% points. As a result, and China has also become the world’s major importer of oil and natural gas.⁸ At the same time, China is the world’s largest energy consumer. In 2020, the total consumption reached 4.98 billion tons of standard coal,⁹ accounting for 26.5% of the world’s total,¹⁰ significantly higher than the ratio (18.3%) of China’s GDP (international dollar in 2017) to the world’s total. This functionally means that China’s unit energy consumption is equivalent to 1.43 times the world average. It is estimated that the total consumption will reach 5.5 billion tons of standard coal in 2025, and may exceed 6 billion tons of standard coal ahead of schedule by 2035. The average annual growth rate is 2.5%, which can support the economic growth rate of about 5%, thus the overall energy self-sufficiency rate can be kept above 80%, basically guaranteeing the overall security of China’s energy.

The energy utilization efficiency will reach the international advanced level.¹¹ The national 14th Five-Year Plan clearly states that the allocation of energy resources will be more reasonable, the utilization efficiency will be greatly improved, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 13.5% and 18% respectively.¹² There will be an annual cumulative decline of more than 50% in energy consumption per unit of GDP. China will implement the Nation of Energy Savers Initiative, comprehensively promote energy conservation in various industries, strictly control the growth of total energy consumption, and build an energy-saving society.

Strictly control the total coal consumption. In 2020, China total coal consumption was 2.83 billion tons of standard coal,¹³ accounting for 53.3% of the world’s coal consumption.¹⁴ From 2.83 billion tons of standard coal in 2020, the amount will be reduced to 2.7 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, and it will be controlled below 2.5 billion tons of standard coal by 2035. China will reduce the proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption, from 56.8% in 2020 to below 50% (48.8%) by 2025, and then dropping below 40% (37.9%) by 2035. Coal accounts for about 94% of the proven reserves of fossil energy resources in China. According to the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference: “Based on the basic national conditions of coal-based energy consumption structure, we must further promote the energy revolution”,¹⁵ and accelerate the low-carbon, clean and comprehensive utilization of coal. China has built the world’s largest clean and efficient coal power supply system. In 2019, there were 111 one-million-kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired power generating units in operation across the country, increasing the proportion of coal for power generation in coal consumption from 55% to more than 60% in 2025, and to more than 75% by 2035. This will greatly lower the overall burden of coal emissions.

The greening of energy consumption structure will be accelerated. The proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption continues to increase. According to the requirements of the “Outline”, this proportion will increase from 15.9% in 2021 to about 20% in 2025, and the supply of non-fossil energy will reach about 1.1 billion tons of standard coal. This will be increased to about 25% by 2030,¹⁶ and more than 30% by 2035; the proportion of clean energy consumption will be greatly increased, from 24.3% in 2020 to 28.5% in 2025, and by 2035 annual increase of more than 37% (see Table 5.1). China will accelerate the greening of the power structure, and establish a modern green energy supply system driven by a variety of renewable energy sources. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation accounted for 43.4% of China’s total in 2020, and is expected to reach 50% in 2022¹⁷ and will exceed 60% in 2035. The proportion of renewable energy installed capacity in the world’s total continues to increase, from 16.0% in 2020 to more than 30%.¹⁸ Approximately 40 million kilowatts of additional hydro power capacity will be installed during both the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods, respectively. By 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts. By 2030, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations will reach about 120 million kW.¹⁹

Table 5.1 Growth trends for China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions (2020–2035)

China will actively promote the development of nuclear power in an orderly manner and on the premise of safety. China’s nuclear power development has entered the fast lane. From 2009 to 2019, the growth rate of nuclear power generation was as high as 17.4%, much higher than the world’s average growth rate (0.4%). In 2020, nuclear power generation accounted for 14.6% of the world’s electricity generation, ranking behind the United States (29.3%) and slightly higher than France (13.5%), making it the second largest country in terms of nuclear power. In the future, China’s nuclear power development will have great potential. According to the “Plan for a Modern Energy System During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period”, by 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70 million kilowatts.²⁰

Looking forward to 2035, decisive progress will be made in high-quality energy development, and the current generation energy system will be basically established. The ability to guarantee energy security will have been greatly improved, and green production and consumption patterns will have more coverage across the country. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 25% by 2030. Renewable energy power generation will become the main power source, and new power system construction will achieve substantial results.²¹ As the world’s largest energy producer and consumer, China will take the lead in realizing a green-oriented transition of energy and electricity by 2035, and become the initiator and leader of the world’s green energy revolution and green electricity revolution in the twenty-first century.

The efficiency of water resources utilization will reach the international advanced level, and the decoupling of water resources consumption and economic growth will be achieved. Water is a basic natural resource and a strategic economic resource related to the national economy and people’s livelihood, and it is a controlling element of the ecological environment. Severe shortage of water resources is a common condition in China and an important bottleneck restricting economic and social development. China’s resources only accounts for 6.6% of the world’s total renewable inland freshwater resources,²²while its population accounts for 18.2% of the world’s total. Water resources per capita are only 36% of the world’s average. The uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the prominent conflict between supply and demand²³ are one of the biggest limiting factors for realizing the modernization of a population of more than one billion. To this end, it is necessary to fully implement the dual control goals of total volume and intensity of water resource consumption, and to build the world’s largest water-saving society by realizing the modernization of water conservancy and implementing national water-saving action. The comprehensive improvement of water resource utilization efficiency and benefit indicators will be integrated into the national five-year plan and annual assessment indicators (see Table 5.2). First, China’s water resource utilization efficiency must reach the international advanced level, and China must realize the complete decoupling of water resource consumption and economic growth. China will strive to reach the international advanced level and effectively control the total water consumption in the country.²⁴ During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, calculated in terms of the potential economic growth rate, if the total water consumption is basically stable, the water consumption for per unit of GDP can be reduced by about 22%.²⁵ In 2025, the total annual water consumption in China will be controlled to a value within 640 billion cubic meters, in reality this can be further reduced to within 580 billion cubic meters. The total water consumption will be reduced to 60 billion cubic meters, and the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water will increase from 0.565 in 2020 to above 0.58 in 2025.²⁶ By 2035, the accumulative total will be controlled at 553 billion cubic meters, which is significantly lower than the target of 700 billion cubic meters, and the total water consumption will continue to decline. The actual total national water consumption and total water consumption per capita, having reached their peak plateau, will continuously decline.²⁷ Second, China must reduce the water consumption per CNY 10,000 of GDP by about 16% compared with the 2020 value.²⁸ By 2035, the water consumption per unit of GDP will decrease by 56.4%, with an average annual decrease of about 3.0%, striving to reach the international advanced level.²⁹ Third, the national agricultural water consumption occupies 62.1% of the total water consumption, which already demonstrates a continuous downward trend. At the same time, the efficiency of agricultural water use was improved, which was 4.1% lower in 2020 than in 2016, and was completely decoupled from the growth of agricultural added value. Fourth, the national industrial water consumption drops significantly. In 2011, the national industrial water consumption reached a peak of 146.2 billion cubic meters. By 2020, it dropped to 103.0 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 29.5%.³⁰Furthermore, the water consumption per unit industrial added value declines obviously.³¹ By 2025, the water consumption of industrial added value will decrease by 16% compared with 2020,³²with an average annual decrease of about 3.0%, which will have been completely decoupled from the growth of industrial added value. Fifth, domestic water consumption increases slightly. Sixth, ecological water consumption continues to rise, which doubled in 2020 compared with 2015, rising from accounting for 2.0% of total water consumption in 2015 to 5.4% in 2021.³³ Seventh, the national per capita domestic water consumption has decreased year by year.³⁴ Eighth, China will fully implement tiered pricing of water, implement dual control of total water resource consumption and intensity, and give full play to the price lever to realize the construction of a water-saving society. “The water price formation mechanism that reflects the scarcity degree of water resources and water supply cost and is conducive to water saving, industrial structure adjustment, and ecological compensation will be established and perfected. China will additionally give full play to the role of market mechanism and price leverage in water resource allocation, conservation and protection.”³⁵ Ninth, the effective irrigation area of China’s farmland has grown to 1.037 billion mu, and the water-saving irrigation area has reached 560 million mu.³⁶ The Israeli-style agricultural drip irrigation technology has been widely promoted nationwide, which has greatly improved water productivity,³⁷ especially in the northern regions, and arid/semi-arid areas. Tenth, through measures such as the construction of reclaimed water facilities, by 2025, the recycling rate of sewage in water-deficient cities at the prefecture level and above will reach more than 25%.³⁸ Eleventh, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the water consumption per unit of GDP will drop by about 16%. During the 15th Five-Year Plan and “16th Five-Year Plan”, it will both drop by about 16%, and the cumulative reduction in the 15 years will be more than 50%. It means that GDP growth will be completely decoupled from water consumption. Twelfth, China must ensure water security. By 2025, the ability to prevent floods and droughts, the ability to economically and intensively utilize water resources safely, the ability to optimize and allocate water resources, and the ability to protect and manage rivers and lakes will be further strengthened, and the country’s ability to ensure water security will be significantly improved.³⁹ By 2035, the modernization of water conservancy, the high-efficiency, intensification and harmlessness of industrial, agricultural and domestic water will be basically realized. This is an important part of basically realizing green modernization, and it is also an important aspect of basically realizing socialist modernization.⁴⁰ By 2035, the world’s largest high-efficiency water-saving society will be built. The modernization of water conservancy will be basically realized, the economical and intensive utilization of water resources will reach the world’s advanced level, and the total national water consumption will be controlled within 550 billion cubic meters.⁴¹ This means that the total national water consumption and per capita water consumption will continue to decline in the circumstance of basically unchanged total population, and this also means that economic growth, agricultural growth, and industrial growth, will be completely decoupled from the total water consumption (especially agricultural and industrial water consumption). The cumulative effect and benefits will be huge. By 2035, the total amount of water that can be saved will reach more than 52.1 billion cubic meters, the cumulative reduction of water consumption per unit of GDP will reach more than 48%, and the proportion of ecological water in total water consumption will increase. This means that China has launched an unprecedented water-saving revolution decoupled from the total water consumption, which is the main feature of Chinese-style water conservancy modernization characterized by harmony human-water relationships.

Table 5.2 Trends of water use and efficiency in China (2020–2035)

5.2 Realizing a Fundamental Improvement in Environmental Quality

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has comprehensively strengthened its leadership over ecological civilization and ecological environmental protection, and has carried out a series of fundamental, pioneering and long-term work. The measures to promote pollution prevention and control are of great importance and intensity, with remarkable achievements. The phased goals and tasks of the nationwide battle to prevent and control pollution have been successfully completed, the ecological environment has been significantly improved, the people’s sense of gain has been significantly enhanced, and the green background and quality of building a well-off society in an all-round way have been planted.⁴²

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that by 2035, the ecological environment will be fundamentally improved.⁴³ This is a key sign of building an ecological civilization and a beautiful China. The 14th Five-Year Plan clearly requires the continuous reduction of major pollutant emissions and the continuous improvement of the ecological environment.⁴⁴

Atmospheric, water, soil and other environmental conditions will be improved significantly. There will be a clear delineation of the red line of environmental quality and safety and the whole-region and systemic environmental protection will be implemented. By 2025, the average number of days with good air quality in cities at the prefecture level and above will increase from 87% in 2020 to 90% in 2025. In 2020, the average PM2.5 concentration of cities at the prefecture level and above that do not meet the national standard decreased by 28.8% compared with the 2015 level, and the number of cities that meet the standard increased to 202. By 2025, it will drop by another 10 percentage points compared with 2020, or about 3.3 µg per cubic meter.⁴⁵ By 2035, all cities that do not meet the standard (accounting for 40% of total cities) will meet the national standard. The proportion of cross-sections with excellent or good surface water quality (Class I to Class III) nationwide will be increased from 83.4% to 95%, and the proportion of water quality (Class I and Class II) in coastal waters will reach about 79% in 2025. The proportion of cross-sections with surface water below Class V, the lowest level, will be controlled within 1% (actually 0.6% in 2020) by 2025—heavily polluted weather and urban black and odorous water bodies will be basically eliminated, soil pollution risks will be effectively managed and controlled, solid waste and new pollutant treatment capabilities will be significantly enhanced, and the ecosystem quality and stability will continue to improve. The total emission of major pollutants will continue to decrease. By 2025, the total emission of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen will drop by 8% compared with 2020, and the emission of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide will decrease by 15% (see Table 5.3). The harmless treatment rate of urban sludge will reach 90%, and the recycling rate of sewage in water-deficient cities at the prefecture level and above will exceed 25%.

Table 5.3 Environmental quality trends (2020–2035)

In the future, China’s agricultural and rural ecological environmental protection tasks will be arduous. In some areas, soil and groundwater pollution problems are more prominent. There is greater pressure in soil and groundwater pollution source prevention. The task of environmental protection in agriculture and rural areas remains difficult. About two-thirds of the administrative villages in the country’s rural areas have not met the requirements for environmental remediation, and the effect of remediation implemented have not been fully stabilized. The problem of black and odorous water bodies in rural areas is prominent, and about three-quarters of the administrative villages have not implemented domestic sewage treatment. To this end, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China has put forward the main objectives of the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Protection of Soil, Groundwater and Rural Ecological Environment”. It states that by 2025, the overall quality of soil and groundwater environment across the country will remain stable, the safe use of contaminated farmland and key construction land will be consolidated and improved; agricultural non-point source pollution will be controlled, the construction of rural environmental infrastructure will be steadily advanced, and the rural ecological environment will continue to improve. By 2035, the national soil and groundwater environmental quality will be stable with good momentum for improvement, the soil environmental safety of agricultural land and key construction land will be effectively guaranteed, and soil environmental risks will be fully controlled; agricultural non-point source pollution will be curbed, rural environmental infrastructure will be improved. The rural environment will overall have fundamental improvements.⁴⁶

Environmental risks are effectively controlled to ensure the safety of the whole society. By 2035, the main environmental protection indicators will strive to reach the level of medium-developed countries, which is an important international symbol for realizing the goal of fundamental improvement of the ecological environment and building a beautiful China.

5.3 The Basic Formation of the Green Development Mode

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that by 2035, a green production and lifestyle will be widely formed. This is a major sign and basic approach to basically achieve green modernization.⁴⁷ As General Secretary Xi Jinping said: “Promoting the formation of green development methods and lifestyles is a profound revolution in the concept of development.”⁴⁸

The green development mode of production will basically take shape. China will build a green, circular, and low-carbon industrial system with a complete system and optimized structure, for example, green agriculture, forestry, and grass industry in the primary industry, green mining, green energy and energy conservation, green manufacturing, environmental protection, and recycling economy, green construction in the secondary industry, green commerce, green transportation, green tourism and other industries in the tertiary industry have become the pillar industries of the national economy. China will accelerate the formation of green and low-carbon transportation methods. By 2030, the share of incremental vehicles fueled by new and clean energy will reach about 40%, carbon emission intensity of commercial vehicles measured on the basis of converted turnover will drop by about 9.5% compared with 2020, and comprehensive energy consumption of the national railways per unit of converted turnover will be cut by 10% compared with 2020. We will strive to reach a peak in petroleum consumption for land transportation before 2030.⁴⁹ There will be a creation of a good production environment for enterprises, formation of a large number of large green enterprise groups with green innovation capabilities and international competitiveness, and formulation of green technology product standards and green brand standards. There will be an establishment of a green financial system, issuance of green bonds, setting up of green development funds, and vigorous promotion of green procurement and green service systems for the government and enterprises. China will realize the green transformation of economy and industry, industry and enterprise, technology and product, sales and service, and create the world’s largest repository of green jobs. According to the data of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, China’s environmental protection industry is growing rapidly. During the period from 2016 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of the environmental protection industry’s operating income reached more than 13%, and the ratio to the nominal GDP growth rate (8.1%) was 1.605, so it belongs to a high-growth emerging industry with elasticity. Furthermore, the environmental protection industry’s contribution to national economy increased from 3.3% in 2016 to 4.5% in 2020.⁵⁰ According to this trend, the environmental protection industry will become the fastest growing emerging strategic industry in China and the largest green industry. China will transition from being the world’s largest “black cat” to the world’s largest “green cat”.

The green development lifestyle will basically take shape. The national awareness of environmental protection will be stronger, and green consumption service standards will be formulated to promote green consumption, green diet, green shopping, green travel, green living, and green office. By 2025, new urban buildings will fully implement green building standards. By 2025, renewable resources will account for 8% of the alternative to conventional energy used in buildings, and we will strive to reach 50% photovoltaic coverage on the roofs of newly constructed public buildings and factories.⁵¹ There will be comprehensive promotion of the classification and harmless treatment of urban and rural waste. By 2025, a basic sorting system for urban household waste will be established, with the reclamation rate up to about 60%. By 2030, the sorting system for urban household waste will cover all cities, and the reclamation rate will rise to 65%.⁵² Importing hazardous waste will be strictly prohibited. From kindergarten to primary, middle schools and universities, we will carry out green education compulsory courses, make green life a priority in people’s lives, create a good living environment for the people, and consciously contribute to building a beautiful China.

The green development system and mechanism will be basically completed. The legal and policy system for green development will be basically formed, green finance and green investment will become the main bodies of investment and financing, and green standards and signs will be basically popularized nationwide.

5.4 The Construction of Ecological Civilization Will Achieve Remarkable Results

The construction of China’s ecological civilization is in a critical period of superimposed pressure and heavy load. It has entered a crucial period for providing more high-quality ecological products to meet the people’s growing needs for a beautiful ecological environment, and a window period for solving outstanding ecological environment problems with favorable conditions and capability.⁵³ This means that China has moved from an era of ecological deficit to ecological restoration, and then further developed to a new era of ecological surplus.

China’s basic national conditions are a large population and little arable land. China’s population accounts for 18.2% of the world’s total, and its agricultural land only accounts for 11.0% of the world’s total.⁵⁴ For this reason, the state has put forward the requirements of optimizing the development and protection of national land space, especially for the establishment of a redline for cultivated land.

Strictly observe the red line for cultivated land. At all times, food security must be established on the basis of basic food self-sufficiency, the Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly in their own hands, the national food security defense line must be built, and the overall social stability must be ensured. Regarding the amount of cultivated land, the CPC Central Committee clearly stipulated that by 2020, the amount of cultivated land in the country should not be less than 1.865 billion mu (124.3333 million ha), and the permanent basic farmland protection area should not be less than 1.546 billion mu (53.3333 million ha). Ensuring the construction of 800 million mu (53.3333 million ha) and striving to build 1 billion mu (66.6667 million ha) of high-standard farmland will functionally be the basic goals for 2030.⁵⁵ In addition, the 14th Five-Year Plan clearly states: during the 14th Five-Year Plan and 15th Five-Year Plan period, the scale of newly added construction land should not exceed 27.36 million mu (1.824 million ha) on average.⁵⁶ However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, demands for industrial land, transportation land, and urban expansion land are very strong, and the contradiction between supply and demand of construction land is prominent, which is an important reason for the continuous reduction of cultivated land.⁵⁷ Protecting the total area of arable land, improving the quality of arable land, and ensuring the irrigated area⁵⁸ are the basic national policies to strictly observe the red line for arable land. As General Secretary Xi Jinping has requested, “1.8 billion mu of cultivated land must be deserved, farmland is farmland, and it must be fertile land.”⁵⁹ It is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of the value chain of the entire industry chain of agriculture and animal husbandry in the western region, and vigorously develop high-efficiency dry farming, water-saving facility agriculture, Gobi agriculture, and cold and drought agriculture.⁶⁰

Vigorously improve the quality of inland water bodies. The water quality compliance rate of water functional areas of important rivers and lakes has increased from 63.5% in 2012 to 76.9% in 2017. About 80% of the target can be achieved by 2020, about 90% of that can be achieved by 2035, and these all will help the achieving of ecologically sustainable development in major water body areas.

Vigorously improve grassland ecological functions. The grassland vegetation coverage will increase significantly. In 2018, the comprehensive vegetation coverage ratio of grasslands nationwide reached 55.7%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points over 2011. The areas of grassland grazing prohibition and grassland-animal balance reached 80.43 million ha and 170 million ha, respectively. By 2035, the national grassland vegetation coverage will strive to reach more than 70%, realizing a mutually reinforcing circle of grassland ecological and economic functions.

Build the world’s largest green forestry industry. As of 2019, the country’s forest area has reached 220 million ha, and China forest resources have entered a period of steady development of quantitative growth and quality improvement. However, China is still an ecologically fragile country with a scarcity of forest resources. In 2016, China forest land area only accounted for 5.3% of the world’s total.⁶¹ The situation of total forest resources featuring relative insufficiency, low quality and uneven distribution has not been fundamentally changed, and the development of forestry is also facing enormous pressure and challenges. Therefore, vigorously developing forestry undertakings, strictly observing the red line for ecological forestry, and maintaining the bottom line of national ecological security are China’s long-term ecological national policies. By 2035, the forestry modernization will be preliminarily realized, the ecological situation will be fundamentally improved, and the goal of building a beautiful China will be basically realized. The forest coverage rate will increase from 22.96% to about 25% in 2030,⁶² the forest stock volume will increase from 17.56 billion cubic meters to 22.7 billion cubic meters in 2035, and the total stock of living trees will increase from 19.7 billion cubic meters to 23.9 billion cubic meters. It is necessary to continue to improve the forest coverage, from 22.96% in 2019 to 24.1% in 2025 and to 26% in 2035, thereby further increasing the total amount of carbon dioxide absorbed. It is estimated that the total amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by 2035 will reach 41.671 billion tons of carbon equivalent, an increase of 9.536 billion tons of carbon equivalent from the 32.135 billion tons of carbon equivalent absorbed in 2018 (see Table 5.4), making it the world’s largest forestry carbon sink market. The ecological function and economic function of forestry development allow for the realization of a benign development mechanism. The total output value of China’s forestry industry will increase from CNY 8.1 trillion in 2020 to more than CNY 20 trillion in 2035, the import and export trade volume of forest products will reach from USD 160 billion to USD 300 billion, and the number of national forest tourism tourists will double, from 1.8 billion in 2018 to 3.6–4 billion. The comprehensive social output value created thereby will rise from CNY 1.75 trillion to 3.5–4 trillion. A number of permanent national forest parks and provincial forest parks will be built. The nature reserves dominated by national parks will accounted for more than 18% of the land area, and endangered wild animals and plants as well as their habitats will be fully protected.⁶³ This fully reflects the new concept of green development that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”, making China’s forestry modernization at the forefront of the world.⁶⁴

Table 5.4 Changes in forest resources and carbon sinks in China (1948–2035)

Important progress will be made in major ecological protection and restoration projects. China will continue to expand the return of farmland and grazing to forests and grasslands. China will further restore degraded wetlands, ensuring that the national wetland area is not less than 800 million mu, and increase the comprehensively controlled soil erosion and desertification land area.⁶⁵ The total vegetation coverage of grasslands nationwide will increase from 55.7% in 2018 to more than 70% in 2035. The decline trend of biodiversity will be fundamentally controlled, the populations of wild animals and plants under national key protection will generally remain stable, the invasion of alien species will be strictly controlled, and the stability of the ecosystem will be significantly enhanced.

The modernization of national governance capacity in the field of ecological environment will be basically realized. Green development indicators will be used as evaluation indicators for ecological civilization construction, and annual evaluation and five-year evaluation will also be implemented. China will improve its ecological and environmental protection system, establish a variety of ecological compensation mechanisms, further improve the system of policies, laws and regulations for ecological civilization construction, basically modernize the governance system and governance capacity in the field of ecological civilization construction, improve the ecological environment resource value assessment and accounting system, and compile/synergize various resources. It will additionally construct a physical quantity accounting system, establish physical quantity accounting accounts, form responsible subjects and accountability systems that are compatible with natural laws, and form a complete ecological environment management system.

5.5 Basic Establishment of Ecological Security Barrier System

The national 14th Five-Year Plan clearly stated that the ecological security barrier should be reinforced.⁶⁶ To this end, the state has put forward requirements for ecological protection red lines.

Establish a national unified spatial planning system. There should be an establishment of an ecological function guarantee baseline, including the ecological red line for prohibited development zones, important ecological functioning areas, and ecologically sensitive areas and vulnerable areas. There should be an additional drawing of environmental quality safety bottom lines, including the red line for environmental quality compliance, total pollutant discharge control and environmental risks management. The utilization of natural resources, including promoting resource and energy conservation, ensuring the efficient use of energy, water, land and other resources, should not exceed the maximum limit.

The planning goals of national main functional zone will be basically achieved. A strategic pattern of urbanization with “two horizontal and three vertical axes” as the main body will be basically formed,⁶⁷ and most of the population and economic aggregate of the country will be concentrated in the major urbanized areas of the country. The agricultural strategic pattern with “seven districts and twenty-three belts” as the main component will basically be formed,⁶⁸ and the security of agricultural product supply will be effectively guaranteed. The ecological security strategic pattern with “two screens and three belts” main components will have been basically formed,⁶⁹ and ecological security will be effectively guaranteed. The strategic pattern of major marine functional areas will be basically formed, and remarkable achievements will have been made in marine resource development, marine economic development and marine environmental protection.

Make full use of both domestic and foreign resources. China’s basic national conditions are still large population base, serious shortage of arable land and other resources, low per capita ecological resources, great environmental pressure, and a weak ecological foundation. To this end, in the international context of opening to the outside world, China, as the world’s largest trading body and foreign exchange reserve country, imported USD 977.06 billion of primary products in 2021, accounting for 36.3% of total imports. Of that amount, fossil fuels accounted for 15.0% of the total imports,⁷⁰ and there is still room for further expansion—which also helps to reduce the trade surplus. To this end, we will make full use of the two resources, develop the two markets, use the two technologies, and attract the two kinds of talents, and ensure China’s energy security, resource security, environmental security, and ecological security through independent and comprehensive opening to the outside world.

5.6 Striving for Carbon Emissions Peaking by 2030

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions, support places where conditions permit first to reach the peak of carbon emissions, and formulate a carbon emissions plan before 2030.⁷¹ The total carbon emissions will stabilize and then decline after reaching a peak before 2030, and will play a more important role in addressing global climate change.⁷²

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the ninth meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs that achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an extensive and profound change in the nature of the economic and social system, and that carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be incorporated into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction. No efforts should be spared to achieve the goal of carbon emissions peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 as scheduled.⁷³

Climate change is a central issue of global sustainable development. China is also a major country that supports global climate governance, plays an important role in the global climate governance system, and actively includes climate change as an important goal of national development. In 2020, China’s carbon emissions were 9.89 billion tons of carbon equivalent, accounting for 30.9% of the world’s total.⁷⁴ China’s carbon emissions have entered a peak plateau or a period of decline, and has already achieved the main goal of addressing climate change in 2020 ahead of schedule.

The Chinese government formulated the “Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030”, which is China’s most ambitious emission reduction action, and will help make China’s contribution to achieving the goals set in the “Paris Agreement” on climate change. This will be achieved in phases using two five-year plans. The basic trend of future carbon emissions is from the relative emission reduction period from 2005 to 2020 to the peak plateau period after 2020. The carbon emission must reach its peak before 2030, and then enter an emission reduction period.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, the energy consumption per unit of GDP will decrease by 13.5% compared with 2020, and the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will decrease by 18% compared with 2020, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peaking. To this end, the Chinese government has formulated a “1 + N” policy system for carbon neutrality, formed the main framework of carbon neutrality work, and carried out the ten major peaking carbon dioxide emissions actions in all regions of the country (see Box 5.1).

Box 5.1: Ten Major Peaking Carbon Dioxide Emissions Actions

• 1. The action for green and low-carbon energy transition

• 2. The action for energy saving, carbon emission mitigation and efficiency improvement

• 3. The action for peaking carbon dioxide emissions in industry sector

• 4. The action for peaking carbon dioxide emissions in urban–rural development area

• 5. The action for promoting green and low-carbon transportation

• 6. The action for promoting circular economy in carbon mitigation purpose

• 7. The action for advancing green and low-carbon technology innovation

• 8. The action for consolidating and enhancing carbon sink

• 9. The action for green and low-carbon society

• 10. The action for promoting all regions peaking carbon dioxide emissions hierarchically and orderly

Source State Department: “Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030”, October 2021, Chinese government website: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2021-10/26/content_5644984.htm.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will drop by more than 65% compared with 2005, and the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 will be successfully achieved.⁷⁵

In the future, the implementation of “dual control” on the total amount and intensity of carbon emission consumption is the main idea for China to mitigate climate change. The total amount and intensity of carbon emission are regarded as important binding indicators for economic and social development, and a mechanism for index decomposition and implementation will be established. Through the establishment of the world’s largest carbon emission market,⁷⁶ market entities and enterprises in high-carbon industries will be encouraged to implement the carbon emission reporting system, and enter the market to directly trade with green energy companies. Thereby they can play the role of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by reducing pollution. According to the assessment of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the measures of the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” and the “Three-Year Plan on Defending the Blue Sky” have led to a cumulative reduction of 1.41 billion tons of carbon dioxide. This has become an innovative carbon reduction combination for coordinated response to climate change and ecological protection.

China actively participates in global climate governance,⁷⁷ reduces the intensity of carbon emissions, supports regions with the favorable conditions first to reach the peak of carbon emissions, and accelerates the implementation of the “Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030”.

The basic trend for future carbon emissions is movement from the relative emission reduction period from 2005 to 2020 to the peak plateau period after 2020. The first step is that China will enter an absolute emission reduction period before 2030. The main ways to achieve this goal are as follows: the first is to continue to reduce the total coal consumption; the second is to vigorously promote the clean utilization of coal; the third is to greatly increase the proportion of clean energy in the total energy consumption. It is expected that carbon emissions will drop from 9.89 billion tons of carbon equivalent in 2020 to less than 8.5 billion tons of carbon equivalent in 2035, and the carbon emissions per unit of GDP will drop by nearly 60%, with an average annual decrease of 5.3%, achieving “double declines” in carbon emissions ahead of schedule. This will drive the world’s total carbon emissions into a period of decline,⁷⁸ which is of great significance to the global response to climate change. At the same time, China continues to carry out extensive international cooperation, actively and deeply participates in addressing global climate governance, and supports developing countries in improving their response to climate change, controlling carbon emissions, and implementing emission reduction commitments. The second step is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

While actively promoting climate change mitigation actions, it is necessary to strengthen the observation and assessment of the impact of global climate change on vulnerable regions in China, and more importantly, to actively enhance the ability to adapt to climate change, and prevent and reduce the loss of natural disasters caused by climate change. The main measures are to coordinate the construction of ecological civilization, with economic construction and social construction, promote ecological civilization construction, advance the development of an ecological civilization, promote ecological protection and restoration, strengthen grassland ecological construction, vigorously carry out afforestation, and curb desertification, rocky desertification, and sloping farmland. Additionally, China must strictly protect important ecological functional areas such as river sources, wetlands and lakes.

The state must strengthen comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation measures. China is a country with frequent occurrence of natural disasters. Natural disasters pose a huge threat to agricultural production and the safety of people’s lives and properties. In 2020, a total of 138 million people were affected by various natural disasters across the country, equivalent to 9.8% of the total population. 591 people died or disappeared due to disasters, the lowest amount in China’s history. The direct economic loss was CNY 370.15 billion, equivalent to 0.37% of GDP, significantly lower than the target requirements of the “National Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan (2016–2020)”: “The proportion of average annual direct economic loss due to natural disasters to GDP is controlled within 1.3% (CNY 1,317.6 billion), and the average annual disaster-related death rate per one million population is controlled within 1.3% (1.835 million).”⁷⁹ Disaster prevention, mitigation and relief are related to the safety of people’s lives and property, as well as to social harmony and stability. China must comprehensively improve its prevention for resisting various natural disasters, as well as improving its mitigation and relief system. This involves also including mitigation and relief work into the overall plans for national economy and social development at all levels, formulating national special plans for comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation, proposing that China should clearly reduce the proportion of casualties caused by disasters, reduce the proportion of economic losses caused by disasters to GDP to less than 1.0%, and control the average annual mortality rate per million people due to natural disasters to less than 1%. Additionally, China shall improve the national emergency management system to reach the world’s advanced level, raise the standards for prevention engineering of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, forest and grassland fires, geological disasters, meteorological disasters, and earthquakes, and develop catastrophe insurance.

In short, modernization with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era of building a modern socialist country in a comprehensive way. By 2025, China will achieve new progress in its ecological civilization development, and green modernization, make remarkable achievements in green transformation of production and lifestyle, and achieve more reasonable and efficient energy and resource allocation. The ecological environment will continue to improve, the ecological security barrier will be increasingly consolidated, and the urban and rural living environment will see significant improvement. By 2035, green production and lifestyles will be widely popularized, carbon emissions will stabilize with some decline after peaking, the ecological environment will fundamentally improve, and the goal of building a beautiful China will be basically achieved.⁸⁰ China through comprehensively promoting the modernization of the harmonious coexistence of man and nature, not only will continue to create the “miracle of rapid economic growth” and “miracle of long-term social stability” in China, taking the lead in creating an “ecological green miracle” in the world, but also provides developing countries with “China’s experience” and “China’s case” in achieving green modernization, and will create the “China’s model” and “China’s path” for the sustainable development of mankind in the twenty-first century.