The Basic Realization of Socialist Modernization by 2035

Abstract

The history of human development is a history of continuous development from “realm of necessity” to the “realm of freedom”. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out: Freedom is the understanding of necessity and the transformation of the objective world. Only on the basis of knowing necessity can people act freely. This is the dialectical law of freedom and necessity. The so-called necessity is a law of the objective understanding of existence.

The history of human development is a history of continuous development from “realm of necessity” to the “realm of freedom”. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out: Freedom is the understanding of necessity and the transformation of the objective world. Only on the basis of knowing necessity can people act freely. This is the dialectical law of freedom and necessity. The so-called necessity is a law of the objective understanding of existence.¹

What is the objective law of China’s socialist modernization development, and how can we follow the law and achieve scientific development? In this regard, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “Development must be scientific development that follows economic laws, sustainable development that follows natural laws, and inclusive development that follows social laws.”² At the same time, China’s development must adhere to social laws, that is, the inclusive development.

These are the three major laws and three major developments in the modernization with Chinese characteristics. They are also the basis for the basic realization of socialist modernization in China by 2035—including the basis for strategic goals, theory creation, practical implementation, and development stages.

2.1 Basis for Modernization with Chinese Characteristics Strategic Objectives by 2035

On July 1, 2021, General Secretary Xi Jinping solemnly announced to the world at the Celebration of the 100th Anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party of China: “We achieved the first centenary goal, built a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the land of China, and solved the problem of absolute poverty. We are striding towards the second centenary goal of building a powerful modern socialist country in a comprehensive way.”³

In 2017, in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress, the CPC made, for the first time, a strategic plan for the realization of the second centenary goal in two stages, that is, to basically realize socialist modernization by 2035, and to develop China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful by the middle of this century.⁴ This constitutes the blueprint for China’s “two-step” strategy for realizing the modernization in the new era.

China has entered a new era of innovative power, which requires careful planning, design and formulation of a grand strategy of enriching the people and strengthening the country. The “Proposals” of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC has further developed the overall strategic conception and overall design of the long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035. General Secretary Xi Jinping’s statement on the “Proposals” specifically pointed out: taking all factors into consideration, the proposed draft adopts a qualitative approach with quantitative implications for the “14th Five-Year Plan” and economic development goals by 2035.⁵ When compiling the “Outline” of the plan, the corresponding quantitative targets can be put forward on the basis of careful calculation.

In 2022, the report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further clarified the goals and tasks of China’s development by 2035 utilizing eight aspects regarding the basic realization of socialist modernization, and additionally put forward new and higher requirements.

The calculations mentioned above have become the basis and background of the further quantitative research in this book. According to the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress, I have made a targeted, systematic study on the long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035, and quantitatively analyzes the development goals and indicators, as well as the implementation path and policy orientation.

The fundamental questions we need a systematic and deep study in: what is the theoretical basis for basically realizing the long-term goal of socialist modernization by 2035? What is the analytical framework? How to use the concept of systemization to analyze the interactive relationship between China’s economy, politics, society, culture and ecology? How to quantify and find metrics for significant qualitative development goals? How to further conduct qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction of long-term trends? How to conduct an international analysis and make comparisons? What is the status of China on the global stage and what role can it play?

Therefore, based on the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress, starting from the development process of China’s socialist modernization and its objective laws, we have given a long-term outlook for China’s basic realization of socialist modernization by 2035. We have combined qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation to make trend judgments and predictions, and further explore the theoretical basis, practical basis and stage basis for basically realizing socialist modernization.

2.2 Theoretical Basis and Development Stages for Basic Realization of Socialist Modernization

• 1. Theoretical basis

Mao Zedong pointed out: There must be a process for understanding the laws of building socialism, starting from experience gained from implementation, from inexperienced to experienced, from less experience to more experience. This process starts from building socialism, the unrecognized kingdom of necessity, to gradually overcoming blindness, understanding objective laws, and thus gaining freedom—a leap in cognition occurs, reaching the realm of freedom.⁶ In this regard, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping successively made continuous innovative explorations and theoretical summaries.

Mao Zedong proposed that the “two-step” strategy of the modernizations of China’s socialism is based on the route outlined by the Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He states: “The stage of socialism may be divided into two stages, the first stage is underdeveloped socialism, and the second stage is relatively developed socialism. The latter stage may take longer than the previous stage.”⁷ He also believes that it is necessary to quantitatively investigate and study the “edge” of building socialism through the development of productive forces and the degree of people’s wealth, namely the features of this stage. Mao Zedong’s thought on the development stage of socialism has become the main ideological source for the theory of the primary stage of socialism.⁸ This shows that the primary stage of socialism is not infinite and has an “edge”. This “edge” is a demonstration of the step-by-step nature of socialist society development, from a low-level stage to a medium-level stage, then to a high-level stage. The key is how to objectively and comprehensively recognize and analyze this “edge”, so as to grasp the opportunity when the socialist society accumulates enough quantitative changes to have a partial qualitative change (“edge”).

Deng Xiaoping proposed that the theoretical basis for the “three-step” strategy of China’s socialist modernization is the theory of the primary stage of socialism, which is the theoretical basis for realizing the first “two steps” ahead of time.

Jiang Zemin put forward two centenary goals of socialist modernization in the report of the 15th National Congress of the CPC.⁹ In his report to the 16th National Congress of the CPC, he formally put forward the centenary goal of the founding of the Party, which is to comprehensively build a higher-level well-off society that benefits more than one billion people.¹⁰ The theory of the primary stage of socialism is the theoretical basis for realizing the first centennial goal.

Hu Jintao pointed out in the report of the 17th National Congress of the CPC that the Scientific Outlook on Development is based on the basic national conditions in the primary stage of socialism, summarizing China’s development practices, drawing lessons from foreign development experience, and adapting to new development requirements. Entering a new stage of the new century, China’s development presents a series of new, step-by-step features. The feature of the current stage of China’s development is the concrete manifestations of the basic national conditions in the primary stage of socialism in the new century and new stage. China is still in the primary stage of socialism and will remain so for a long time to come has not changed, nor has Chinese society’s principal contradiction—the one between the over-growing material and cultural needs of the people and the low level of social production.¹¹ “The two factors that have not changed” is in line with China’s national conditions and development stage at that time.

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, the socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward for the first time that, the principal contradiction facing Chinese society in the new era is that between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life. Major shifts in the principal contradictions facing our society will surely cause overall, long-term and periodic changes. In the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, General Secretary Xi Jinping’s statement on the “Proposals” pointed out that our country is still in the primary stage of socialism and will stay in it for a long time. Our country is still the largest developing country in the world, and development is still the top priority of our Party in governing and rejuvenating the country. It must be emphasized that the development of the new era and new stage must implement the new development concept and it must be high-quality development.

In the report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed a “two-step” strategic arrangement for building China into a powerful socialist modernization country in an all-round way: On the basis of building a moderately prosperous society benefiting 1.4 billion people on the basis of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC, socialist modernization will be basically realized by 2035. From 2035 to the middle of the century, China will be built into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful.¹² This advances the strategic goal of “three-step” strategy proposed by Deng Xiaoping in 1987 by 15 years, and has become the top-level design and the overall design of the strategic goal of China’s socialist modernization development. At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again reiterated this “two-stage” goal of building China into a powerful modern country with Chinese characteristics. So, how can we understand China’s new development stage? General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that the new development stage we are in today is just one part of the primary stage of socialism, and it is a period that marks a new starting point for us after decades of accumulation. From a historical standpoint, this new stage will see our Party lead the people in completing the historic transformation from standing up and becoming prosperous to growing strong.¹³ He also noted: the primary stage of socialism is not a static, cast-iron, or stagnant period, nor is it a spontaneous and passive stage that can easily and naturally be passed through. Rather, it is a stage of dynamism, action, and promise, one that should always brim with vitality. It develops gradually but ceaselessly, moving from quantitative increases to qualitative leaps. Fully building a modern socialist China and basically realizing socialist modernization are essential for China’s development in the primary stage of socialism, and essential for China to advance from the primary stage to a higher stage of socialism.¹⁴This is a major theoretical innovation and overall strategic design in the development stage of China’s socialist modernization.

What needs to be explained in particular is that in 1987 Deng Xiaoping had conceived: From 1981 to the end of this century, it took 20 years to reach the well-off level, that is, the annual gross national product per capita is USD 800 to 1000. On this basis, it will take 50 years to quadruple the value to reach USD 4000 per capita. By the middle of the next century, China will reach the level of moderately developed countries. He said with confidence: This not only paves the way for the third world, which accounts for three-quarters of the world’s total population, but more importantly, shows mankind that socialism is the only way, and that socialism is superior to capitalism.¹⁵

Later, China’s economic growth record also surpassed Deng Xiaoping’s estimate, that is, the per capita GNP in 2050 will be 16 times that in 1980. Calculated at constant prices in 1980, the per capital GNP actually reached 26 times the original amount by 2021.¹⁶ This also demonstrates the fact that China will enter the middle stage of socialism earlier than before 2050.

Firstly, according to the reports to the 19th and 20th CPC National Congress, China will basically achieve socialist modernization 15 years ahead of schedule by 2035. Secondly, the theoretical basis is the transition to a higher stage of socialism. The so-called new era contains the development process from the primary stage of socialism to a higher stage of socialism: a transitional period from a primarily developed stage to a moderately developed stage with three Five-Year Plans¹⁷ and a transitional period from a major modern socialist country in the world to a powerful modern socialist country in the world. It is the main basis for the basic realization of socialist modernization.

• 2. New trends and new characteristics of modernization with chinese characteristics

During this period, China will undergo major changes in eight aspects, with new trends and new characteristics that are greatly different from the past.

First, the principal contradiction facing China’s society has undergone a major transformation. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that the principal contradiction facing Chinese society in the new era has changed from the contradiction between the people’s growing material and cultural needs and lagging social production to the gap between unbalanced and inadequate development and the ever-growing expectation of the people for a better life.¹⁸ This shows that the principal contradictions facing our society is not static, but has undergone a major transformation, which not only objectively reflects the major changes in China’s basic national conditions, but also promotes China’s socialism to enter a new stage. Because China has made a major leap in its productivity, changing the lagging social productive force to an increasingly advanced one, not only was there a major leap in economic productivity, in which the per capita GDP has leapt to the upper middle position by global standards and it is expected to be a medium-level developed country by 2035; the urbanization rate of China’s permanent resident population has also reached 64.7% (data from 2021), and by 2035, it will reach more than 75%. There will also be a major leap in scientific and technological productivity, people’s livelihood productivity, and cultural productivity. I believe that the principal social contradiction can be further stated as: “the contradiction between unbalanced, inadequate and incomplete development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.” The first part to address is the unbalanced development. According to China’s basic national conditions, the unbalanced development mainly refers to the unbalanced development of various regions, urban and rural areas. This covers various facets of development, especially the relatively lagging economic, social and ecological development levels in old revolutionary base areas, areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities, border areas, and areas with relatively high incidences of poverty, which restricts the overall development of the country. The income level of Chinese residents continues to increase, but the income gap is still large. It is extremely difficult to achieve common prosperity for all people. A social security system covering both urban and rural residents has taken shape, but it is extremely difficult to achieve equalization. The second part to address is insufficient development, which mainly refers to insufficient development in many fields and aspects. For example, China’s agricultural foundation is still not stable, agricultural labor productivity is relatively low, per-capita primary resources are few, and ecological and environmental protection issues are pressing. These issues have consistently been shortcomings of realizing China’s socialist modernization. The third part to address is incomplete development. From a micro perspective, according to Marx’s theory of well-rounded human development, the human development is incomplete. As the most populous country in the world, individuals and families vary greatly in their human capital, developmental abilities and income levels. From a macro perspective, the essence of socialism proposed by Deng Xiaoping is to achieve common prosperity for the people, that is, the common prosperity of urban and rural areas for all regions and all people. This also has not yet been achieved, which highlights the incomplete development. To this end, it is necessary to always adhere to the “Five Development Concepts” (the concepts of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development), and further add one additional concept to make it to the “Six Development Concepts” (the concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open, shared, and secure development).¹⁹ The concepts highlight the idea of “National security and development are two wings of one body and two wheels of one vehicle. Security fundamentally guarantees development, and development is in turn the purpose of security.”²⁰ This is from the perspective of the overall layout of socialist modernization, from the “Four-pronged Comprehensive Strategy” to the “Five-pronged Comprehensive Strategy” consists of building socialist modernization in all respects, comprehensively expanding in-depth reform, comprehensively promoting law-based governance, comprehensively enforcing strict Party self-governance, and full participation in global governance—this is the general strategy for governing the country on a quite long-term basis. This is because China is entering the center of the world stage gradually, becoming the largest independent variable and dependent variable for world peace and development, and has taken the initiative to build a community with a shared future for mankind. In the future, the development of modernization with Chinese characteristics should be relatively balanced development, more adequate development, and more comprehensive development. Special attention should be given to the well-round development of people, the comprehensive development of society, the common prosperity of all the people, the comprehensive security of the country, and the mutually interactive development of China and the world. China will make greater contribution to world peace and development. Therefore, a correct understanding of the principal contradiction facing our society is the theoretical basis for understanding the development stage of socialist society, as well as the practical basis for basically realizing socialist modernization. I label this as the theoretical basis of modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Second, China’s basic national conditions have undergone major changes. China’s national conditions of population and resources of “large population²¹ and little arable land²²” have not changed, but the economic and social conditions of “weak foundation²³ and per capita GDP ranking behind the world” have fundamentally changed. The GNI (Gross National Income) per capita ranks the 175th, ranking in the bottom 7% of the world. By 2020, China will rise to the 64th place,²⁴ among 187 countries and regions in the world, and its position in the world’s GNI per capita will rise from 93% in 1978 to 38% in the upper middle position. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China has entered into a high-income stage. By 2035, China will enter the top 20% (top 40) of the world’s GNI per capita. The major changes in China’s basic national conditions and the remarkable rise of China’s GDP per capita ranking in the world are among the main reasons to implement the grand strategy of socialist modernization. I label this as the basic national conditions criteria of modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Third, China’s socialist modernization development stage has undergone major changes. The basic judgment of the report of the 13th National Congress of the CPC in 1987 was: from the basic completion of the socialist transformation of the private ownership of the means of production in the 1950s to the completion of socialist modernization, it will take at least a hundred years (referring to 2050). These activities are all part of the primary stage of socialism.²⁵ After achieving the first centenary goal in 2020, for China, there will be a transition period from the primary stage of socialism to a higher stage. In effect, it will take fifteen years to basically achieve the higher stage. The goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 is to reach the level of medium-developed countries. This marks that after 2035, China will start to enter a higher stage of socialist modernization, that is, the stage of medium-development; by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, a powerful modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful will be built in an comprehensive way, after which China will enter a stage of relatively-developed socialism; by the 100th anniversary of reform and opening up, a developed and mature socialist modern country will be basically built, laying the foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by the end of this century. This has become a general trend, as well as different development stages of modernization with Chinese characteristics in the twenty-first century. It also reflects the proven law of quantitative changes leading to partial qualitative changes, and further deepens these changes in China’s socialist society. I label the system of these changes as the theory of practice and dialectical materialism of modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Fourth, socialist modernization centered on the people is to be achieved. Modernization has always been the common aspiration of the development of all countries in the world, but modernization does not follow a transcendental or fixed model or path. Although Western countries are the leaders of global modernization, Western modernization is mainly the modernization of things. It is also a modernization that only benefits a select few, especially the modernization of capitalism, benefiting a small number of capital groups. These countries continuously experience economic, social, political, cultural, and ecological crises, and create international financial crises, military intervention, and war conflicts. The United States is the most typical representative of Western-style modernization. China’s modernization is not an imitation or upgraded version of Western modernization, but is an innovation version of socialist modernization. The most essential difference between the two is that socialist modernization is centered on all the people, which is the most innovative modernization with Chinese characteristics. In 2020, “The moderately prosperous society China builds will be enjoyed by each and every Chinese person; on the march towards common prosperity, no one must be left behind.”²⁶; By 2035, “Disparities in urban–rural development, in development between regions, and in living standards are significantly reduced; equitable access to basic public services is basically ensured; and solid progress has been made towards prosperity for everyone. Common prosperity for everyone is basically achieved. The Chinese people enjoy happier, safer, and healthier lives.”²⁷ As a latecomer to the global modernization, modernization with Chinese characteristics has learned from the modernization of the former Soviet Union and the West, including both positive and negative aspects of both modernization efforts. More importantly, it has successfully innovated modernization with Chinese characteristics independently and used it to catch up to western countries. This has been a rapid catch-up process: “China has completed a process of industrialization that took developed countries several centuries in the space of mere decades, bringing about the two miracles of rapid economic growth and enduring social stability.”²⁸ This is because modernization with Chinese characteristics does not imitate others, but constantly surpasses the Western modernization model. The essence is socialist modernization centered on all the people. I refer to this process as people’s modernization with Chinese characteristics. Because the 1.4 billion people are not only the main body driving modernization together, but also the principal recipients of its benefits.

Fifth, it makes clear that the overall plan for building socialism with Chinese characteristics is the Six-sphere Integrated Plan. China’s modernization is not limited to economic modernization, but contains instead comprehensive modernizations with Chinese characteristics, from “four (agriculture, industry, national defense and science and technology) modernization” (1964, 1975),²⁹ to the “three-step” Modernization Strategy (1987).³⁰ From the general layout of the “Three-sphere Integrated Plan” featuring economic construction, political system reform, and spiritual civilization established by the Sixth Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,³¹ to the “the overall plan for advancing socialism with Chinese characteristics” proposed by Hu Jintao for the first time in February 2005, it has developed into modernization focusing on socialist economy construction, political construction, cultural construction, and social construction—“Four-sphere Integrated Plan”.³² The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China formally make it clear that the overall plan for building socialism with Chinese characteristics is the Five-sphere Integrated Plan.³³ Among the five aspects, economic construction is the center, political construction acts as the guarantee, cultural construction is the soul, social construction is the precondition, ecological civilization construction is the foundation, and national defense construction is the security guarantee. They interact, influence and support each other, forming an organic whole that is interconnected and mutually reinforcing. This overall layout of the “Six-sphere Integrated Plan” is conducive to promoting the coordination of all aspects of modernization with Chinese characteristics. It promotes the coordination between the forces of production and relations of production, superstructures and the economic basis, and achieves development landscape featuring economic prosperity, political democracy, cultural prosperity, social equity, and sound ecology. We should also promote the comprehensive development and progress of contemporary China, building our country into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious. From the modernization overall layout of the “Five-sphere Integrated Plan” to the modernization of the state system and capacity for governance (2019).³⁴ Considering that the report of the 19th and 20th National Congress of the CPC proposed to basically realize the modernization of national defense and the military by 2035³⁵ and the strategic layout of the “Six-sphere Integrated Plan”, as well as to speed up the modernization of national defense and the military.³⁶ This has become an integrated version of the overall strategic layout of building socialist modernization with Chinese characteristics and an important basis for basically realizing socialist modernization. I call it the overall layout of modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Sixth, it is clear that the strategic layout of China’s socialist modernization is the Five-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy. The “Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy” is an important part of the new concept, new thinking and new strategy of the CPC Central Committee in governing the country with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, and has become a brand-new strategic layout of the CPC Central Committee in governing the country. Building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is a major indicator for the realization of the first centenary goal and itself was a leading and core strategic goal. Comprehensively deepening reforms and comprehensively advancing law-based governance are the driving force and stabilizing system for China’s economic and social development. The two aspects are like the two wings of a bird, as well as two wheels of a vehicle. It is because of them that the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects can be realized on schedule. Exercising full and rigorous governance for the Party is the leading key to advancing the “Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy”. After 2020, the full realization of the second centenary goal became the core strategic goal, which lead to it retaining its position as a key component. As China increasingly moves into the center of the world stage and fully participates in global governance, the government is promoting the overall coordination and integration of the “Five-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy” and the modernization overall layout of the “Six-sphere Integrated Plan”. This deepens the Party’s commitment to understanding the laws of building modernization with Chinese characteristics, and it is a general strategy related to the long-term development of the party, the country and development of China with the rest of the world. I label this as the overall modernization strategy with Chinese characteristics.

Seventh, China has entered a new era of building a great modern socialist country in all respects. From the perspective of the life cycle theory of modern national development,³⁷ I have analyzed the century-old historical development track and historical motives of the Communist Party of China and the modernization with Chinese characteristics. The Communist Party of China is the innovator and leader of China’s socialist modernization. The new-democratic revolution ended the history of rapid decline in modern China (1921–1949), helped realize the fundamental transformation from the old China to the People’s Republic, and created political prerequisites for entering a new life cycle of national development. The socialist revolution and construction started the period of preparation and growth of modernization with Chinese characteristics (1949–1977), which laid the economic foundation, social foundation, human capital foundation and institutional foundation for modernization with Chinese characteristics. Reform and opening up started the rapid growth period of modernization with Chinese characteristics (1978–2012), and helped secure sustained and rapid economic growth. Due to this, China’s economic strength and trade strength jumped to the second place in the world. The new era also has ushered in the prosperous period of modernization with Chinese characteristics (2012-now). China’s economic strength, scientific and technological strength, trade strength, national defense strength, and comprehensive national strength have leaped to a higher level. This has allowed China to enter the center of the world stage. The current core issue of the national development life cycle is whether it can continue to innovate. Continuous innovation is the driving force for the rise of a country. Innovation is not only technological innovation, but also includes institutional innovation, organizational innovation, market innovation, cultural innovation, concept innovation and theoretical innovation. Since the reform and opening up: China has entered an era of large-scale innovation, accelerated innovation, and innovation by the whole Party, the whole nation, the whole people and the whole army.³⁸ This constitutes the interconnected and mutually reinforcing “Chinese innovation integration”, which determines the evolution and progress of the life cycle of modern China’s development. This innovation includes China’s transition from the country with the world’s largest population to a major agricultural value added country in this world (1997),³⁹ from the world’s major manufacturing country (2010) to the world’s largest import and export trade country (2015), and then to the world’s largest economy (according to international dollar in 2017).⁴⁰ According to the strategic vision of the report of the 19th and 20th National Congress of the CPC, in the second stage from 2035 to the middle of the twenty-first century, we will, building on having basically achieved modernization, work hard for a further 15 years and develop China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful.⁴¹ I label this as the integrated and innovative modernization with Chinese characteristics.

Eighth, from “stage of letting some people get rich first” to “stage of common prosperity”. China’s socialist modernization development strategy has also had a few different development stages. After the reform and opening up, the theme of “letting some people get rich first” was the primary strategic focus. This allowed some groups and some regions become rich first, taking the lead in breaking through the “poverty trap” in poor countries with hundreds of millions of people. Initially, the problem of providing basic levels of food and clothing for 1.1 billion people has been solved. And then at the end of the twentieth century, “the people have reached a well-off standard of living on the whole, and the Seven-Year Priority Poverty Alleviation Program has been completed.” “The well-off standard of living reached now is still a relatively low, incomplete, and unbalanced”⁴²; To this end, the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed a grand goal of “building a moderately prosperous society benefiting more than one billion people in an all-round way” and entering the stage of “common prosperity”, which marks the transition from the theme of “letting some people get rich first” to the theme of “common prosperity”⁴³; Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, our Party has made every effort to eliminate the absolute poverty that has existed for thousands of years, taking the lead in achieving the 2015 “Millennium Development Goal (MDG)” in developing countries, that is, the incidence of poverty was reduced by half compared with 1990.⁴⁴ China also achieved the “2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)” agreed by the international community 10 years earlier than scheduled and took the lead in eradicating absolute poverty. On the occasion of realizing the first centenary goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, the “Proposal” issued at the Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Party first proposed that by 2035, “the common prosperity for all people will achieve more obvious and substantial progress”. This indicated that “common prosperity for all people” had become the theme of the new era. This was not only an essential requirement of socialism, but also in the common interests of more than the 1.4 billion people. This is in line with the development laws and stages of the modernization with Chinese characteristics. It is fundamentally different from the mode and essence of Western modernization, and highlights the essence of the modernization with Chinese characteristics—centering on all the people, and it is also the fundamental reason and purpose for the continuous success of modernization with Chinese characteristics. I label this as the modernization with Chinese characteristics to achieve common prosperity.

2.3 The Practical Basis for Basic Realization of Socialist Modernization

The basic realization of socialist modernization with Chinese characteristics is not only a question of innovation of socialist theory, but also innovation in socialist practice. The China’s general goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 is not only based on long-term practical experience, but also the general strategic needs for keeping pace with the level of global development and innovation.

• 1. China’s grand strategy for realizing socialist modernization

In 1987, Deng Xiaoping first proposed the “three-step” strategy for China’s socialist modernization. At that time, the main quantitative indicators and basis of Deng Xiaoping’s making this forward-looking and overall vision were: By the middle of the twenty-first century, China’s per capita GNP will quadruple from the level in 2000, that is, from USD 1000 per capita to USD 4000 at the exchange rate of CNY and USD in 1980, which is equivalent to quadrupling the per capita GDP.⁴⁵ I called it “Deng Xiaoping’s Prophecy”, and the subsequent practice greatly exceeded Deng Xiaoping’s strategic vision. The Party Central Committee also helped keep pace with the times and improved the strategic goals and development indicators of socialist modernization.

The report of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1987 made an analysis of China’s basic national conditions: China has a large population and a weak foundation, and its per capita GNP still ranks at the bottom of the world. The key conditions to be addressed were the following: with a population of more than one billion, among which 800 million are in rural areas, the people were still basically using hand tools to make a living; some modern industries co-exist with a large number of industries that are decades or even hundreds of years behind the modern level; some economically developed areas coexist with the vast underdeveloped areas and poverty-stricken areas; a small number of the people have advanced science and technology education but generally the people have a low level of science and technology education, and illiterate and semi-literate people still account for nearly a quarter of the population.⁴⁶

• 2. Two-stage strategy based on national conditions and national strength

More than 40 years have passed away, China’s basic national conditions have undergone substantial changes, and China’s socialist modernization construction has made substantial progress. To this end, it is necessary to analyze the national conditions for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035.

First, the basic national condition of “China’s per capita income ranks at the bottom of the world” has changed. Calculated at constant prices, China’s per capita GDP is 14.5 times⁴⁷ that of the 1985 value. Calculated at the current exchange rate between the USD and the CNY, China’s per capita GDP has risen from USD 294 in 1985 to USD 10,435 in 2020,⁴⁸ and China’s per capita gross national income has also increased. In 1990, it ranked 178th among the world’s 200 countries and regions, and was listed in the bottom 11.0% of the world. By 2019, China’s per capita gross national income ranked the 73rd among 194 countries and regions in the world, rising by 105 places⁴⁹—rising from the bottom of the world to the forefront of the world, ranking the top 37.6% of the world. Calculated according to the 2017 international dollar price of purchasing power parity (PPP), China’s per capita GDP has risen from 1424 international dollars in 1990 to 16,316 international dollars in 2020, surpassing the world’s per capita level (16,189 international dollars) for the first time compared with the per capita GDP of the United States, which rose from 3.5 to 27.1%,⁵⁰ showing a clear catch-up effect.

Second, the basic national conditions of “weak foundation” have fundamentally changed. In 1978, China’s total capital formation (in current USD) accounted for 2.4% of the world’s total, and the total capital formation of the United States was 10.4 times that of China. In 2010, China surpassed the U.S., ranking first in the world. By 2020, China’s proportion in the world has risen to 28.7%, equivalent to 1.45 times that of the U.S. in the world (19.8%).⁵¹ Calculated in international dollar in 2017, China’s total capital formation is equivalent to 2.38 times that of the United States.⁵² China’s increasingly strong domestic capital strength, that is, “solid foundation” is the material basis for China to basically achieve socialist modernization.

Third, China’s basic national condition of “800 million people living in rural areas” has fundamentally changed. From 2000 to 2021, the rural population in China dropped from 808.37 million to 498.35 million. The urban population increased from 459.06 million to 914.25 million, and the proportion of urban population in the total population also increased from 20.91% in 1982 to 51.83% in 2011. By 2021, it further increased to 64.72%, and it took only more than 20 years to realize the transformation from a society dominated by rural population to a society dominated by urban population. It is estimated that by 2035, the proportion of the rural population in the total population will be further reduced from 1/3 to less than 1/4, which will be more conducive to the direct transfer payment from the state to the rural population. This will also be more conducive to the rapid spread of modernization factors to rural areas. Calculated at constant prices, in 2020, the per capita disposable income of the rural population was equivalent to 4.4 times that of 2000. Calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (international dollar in 2017), the per capita daily income rose from 6.5 international dollars to 28.4 international dollars. This represents a transition from slightly higher than the World Bank’s high poverty line standard (per capita daily income of 5.50 international dollars) to the World Bank’s middle-income standard (per person’s daily income of 10–100 international dollars). The Engel coefficient of rural households has dropped from 49.1% in 2000 to 32.7% in 2021, which is close to the more affluent consumption structure (below 30%).

Fourth, China has established the world’s largest educational system. The illiteracy rate of China’s population has dropped from 22.81% in 1982 to 2.67% in 2020. The illiterate population has been basically eliminated. The population of college students and above has reached 218 million from 6.2 million, and the population of high school (including technical secondary school) has reached 213 million from 68.34 million, and the total of the two has reached 431 million.⁵³ This is equivalent to 2.61 times of the U.S. workforce (165 million⁵⁴). The average years of education of the national population has increased from 4.61 years to 9.91 years, and the total human capital (the product of the population over the age of 15 and the average years of education per capita) has risen from 3.087 billion person-years in 1982 to 11.479 billion person-years in 2020—equivalent to 3.72 times the 1982 value, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. This is a huge achievement of China’s educational modernization, undergoing the historic transformation and leap development from the “most illiterate” country to the world’s largest education modernization country, human capital country, and human capital country. It has the most diverse modernization with Chinese characteristics and the most competitive human resources and talent resources.⁵⁵ This is the inevitable result of China’s modernization centering on the whole population, accelerating the modernization of education, investing in all the people and building a strong country with human capital.

Fifth, China has built the largest social security system in the world. “The basic pension insurance covers one billion and forty million people, and the participation rate of basic medical insurance is stable at 95 percent.”⁵⁶ The goal of ensuring people’s livelihood by providing medical care for the sick, support for the elderly, housing for the people, and support for those in poverty has been realized. By the end of 2021, the number of people participating in the basic old-age insurance for urban workers and residents has reached 480.75 million, the number of people participating in the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents has reached 547.97 million, and the number of people participating in the basic medical insurance has reached 1364.24 million.⁵⁷ This fully reflects the superiority of the socialist state system and the advantages of modernization with Chinese characteristics that is “centered on the whole population”.

Sixth, China will become a modern and medium-level developed country by 2035. The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that by 2035, socialist modernization will be basically realized, China’s economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength will rise sharply, and the per capita GDP will reach a new level and China as a whole will reach the level of medium-developed countries.⁵⁸ I predict that China’s per capita GDP (international dollars in 2017) will exceed 34,000 international dollars in 2035 from 16,300 international dollars in 2020, reaching the level of medium-developed countries.⁵⁹

If the conclusion of the report of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1987 that “we are still far from the primary stage of socialism” is considered in line with China’s national conditions at that time, experiences from the past have also proved it to be correct. Then by 2022, the conclusion that “we are moving from the primary stage to a higher development stage today” is also in line with China’s reality.

Seventh, China will make greater contributions to world peace and development. The biggest difference from modern western countries is that China did not pursue development by establishing colonies and dependencies (such as the United Kingdom and France) and waging wars with foreign countries (such as Japan and the United States), but by reforming and opening up and self-reliance. It did not grow by flaunting Western freedom, democracy and human rights to dominate the world,⁶⁰ but instead employed a strategy of mutual benefit by making great contributions to human development. As it develops to a moderate-level stage, China will also make greater contributions to world peace and development.

Eighth, from the perspective of changes in international status, China will develop from the world’s largest low-income country to the world’s largest developing country, and to the world’s largest emerging economy.⁶¹ It will additionally transition to be the world’s largest high-income country (by 2025), the largest medium-developed country (by 2035) and the most powerful modern country (by 2049). At the same time, China will become the largest engine and contributor to world economic growth, agricultural growth, industrial growth, international trade growth, and technological innovation, and will become a country that makes more and more contributions to world peace, human civilization and development.

In short, after achieving the first centenary goal, from 2020 to 2035, we will see that socialist modernization is basically realized; from 2035 to the middle of this century, we will develop China into a great modern socialist country. By the end of that stage, the following objectives will have been met: new heights will be reached in every dimension of material, political, cultural-ethical, social, and ecological advancement; modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance will be achieved; China will become a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence; common prosperity for all will be largely realized; the Chinese people will enjoy happier, safer, and healthier lives; and the Chinese nation will stand taller and prouder among the nations of the world.⁶² As General Secretary Xi Jinping said, “Fully building a modern socialist China and basically realizing socialist modernization are essential for China’s development in the primary stage of socialism, and essential for China to advance from the primary stage to a higher stage of socialism.”⁶³ This refers to the fact that China’s new transitional stage, from the primary stage of socialism to the medium-developed stage of socialism (or the intermediate stage of socialism), will take at least fifteen years or more.