Skip to main content

Mortality Trends and Projection Models in Japan

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs in Population Studies ((POPULAT))

  • 34 Accesses

Abstract

This chapter provide an overview of the mortality trends and projection models for Japan. First, we describe the mortality trends in Japan. We then review the general modeling for mortality and the official mortality projection for Japan. The proposed mortality model is used in the official population projection, which is one of the reasons for the development of a new projection model. Lastly, we review the LC model and its applications to Japan.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 49.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The fitted function is the average of the exponential and logarithm functions, which are supposed to fit well with the recent trend in Japanese mortality.

References

  • Beard RE (1971) Some aspects of theories of mortality, cause of death analysis, forecasting and stochastic processes. In: Biological aspects of demography, Taylor and Francis Ltd., London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts J (2005) Long-range trends in adult mortality: models and projection methods. Demography 42(1):23–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box GE, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC (2013) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Wiley

    Google Scholar 

  • Brass W (1971) On the scale of mortality. In: Brass W (ed) Biological aspects of demography. Taylor and Francis Ltd, pp 69–110

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale AJ, Demeny P (1983) Regional model life tables and stable populations, 2nd edn. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • De Moivre A (1725) Annuites on lives: or, the valuation of annuities upon any number of lives; as also,of reversions. London

    Google Scholar 

  • Fries JF (1980) Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England J Med 303:130–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gompertz B (1825) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philos Trans Royal Soc London 115:513–583

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heligman L, Pollard JH (1980) The age pattern of mortality. J Inst Actuaries 107:49–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horiuchi S, Wilmoth J (1995) Aging of mortality decline. Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, California

    Google Scholar 

  • Igawa T (2013) Analysis of the residual structure of the Lee-Carter model: the case of Japanese mortality. Asia-Pacific J Risk Insurance 7(2):53–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPSS (2002) Population Projections for Japan: 2001–2050 (With Long-Range Population Projections: 2051–2100). National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishii F (2006) Trends of Japanese life expectancy and mortality projection models (in Japanese). J Popul Problems 62(3):21–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishii F (2008) Mortality projection model consistent with the recent Japanese mortality situation -developing the age-shifting model- (in Japanese). J Popul Problems 64(3):28–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishii F (2013) Developiong mathematical models that admit unconstrained movin of mortality curves and their application to projections for Japan (in Japanese). J Popul Problems 67(3):3–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishii F (2014) An extended linear difference model for mortality projection, with applications to Japan. Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Kogure A, Hasegawa T (2005) Statistical modelling of the projected life tables: the Lee-Carter method and its extensions (in Japanese). Policy and Governance Working Paper Series 71

    Google Scholar 

  • Komatsu R (2002) A construction of future life table in Japan using a relational model (in Japanese). J Popul Problems 58(3):3–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee R, Carter L (1992) Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. J Am Stat Assoc 87(419):659–675

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee R, Miller T (2001) Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality. Demography 38(4):537–549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li N, Lee R, Gerland P (2013) Extending the Lee-Carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections. Demography 50(6):2037–2051

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Makeham WM (1860) On the law of mortality and the construction of annuity tables. Assur Magaz J Inst Actuaries 8(6):301–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nanjo Z, Yoshinaga K (2003) Forecasting Japan’s life tables with special reference to the Lee-Carter method (in Japanese). The 55th Annual Meeting of the Population Association of Japan, Abstract Booklet, p 57

    Google Scholar 

  • Ogawa N, Kondo M, Tamura M, Matsukura R, Saito T, Mason A, Tuljapurkar S, Li N (2002) Zinko. Nihon University Population Research Institute, Keizai, Shakaihosho Moderu niyoru Chokitenbo - Zintekishihon nimotozuku Approach- (in Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Oikawa K (2006) Study on future mortality rate estimation (in Japanese). Kaiho, Ins Actuaries Jpn 59(2):1–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Olshansky S, Ault A (1986) The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: the age of delayed degenerative diseases. The Milbank Q 64(3):355–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omran A (1971) The epidemiologic transition: a theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Memorial Fund Q 49(4):509–538

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perks W (1932) On some experiments on the graduation of mortality statistics. J Inst Actuaries 63:12–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers A, Little JS (1994) Parameterizing age patterns of demographic rates with the multiexponential model schedule. Math Popul Stud 4(3):175–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siler W (1979) A competing-risk model for animal mortality. Ecology 60(4):750–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thatcher AR, Kannisto V, Vaupel JW (1998) The force of mortality at ages 80–120. Odense University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Thiele TN (1871) On a mathematical formula to express the rate of mortality throughout the whole of life, tested by a series of observations made use of by the Danish Life Insurance Company of 1871. J Inst Actuaries and Assurance Magazine 16(5):313–329

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuljapurkar S, Li N, Boe C (2000) A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature 405:782–789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (1956) Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, Series A, Population Studies No.25

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (1982) Model Life Tables for Developing Countries, Population Studies No.77

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (2022) World population prospects 2022: methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections (UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 4)

    Google Scholar 

  • Weibull WA (1951) A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. J Appl Mechanics 18:293–297

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilmoth JR (1995) Are mortality projections always more pessimistic when disaggregated by cause of death? Math Popul Stud 5(4):293–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilmoth JR (1996) Mortality projections for Japan. In: Caselli G, Lopez AD (eds) Health and mortality among elderly populations. Oxford Univ, Press, pp 266–287

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilmoth JR (1997) In search of limits. In: Wachter KW, Finch CE (eds) Between Zeus and the Salmon. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp 38–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilmoth JR (2011) Increase of human longevity: past, present, and future. Japanese J Popul 9(1):155–161

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Futoshi Ishii .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Ishii, F. (2023). Mortality Trends and Projection Models in Japan. In: Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications. SpringerBriefs in Population Studies(). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2509-4_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2509-4_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-99-2508-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-99-2509-4

  • eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics