Analysis of Air Traffic Time Predictability for International ATFM

Abstract

International air traffic flow management (ATFM) will become increasingly necessary to avoid congestion as traffic recovers after the COVID-19 pandemic. As AFTM measures in the Asia/Pacific region, Calculated Time Over (CTO) at Flight Information Region (FIR) boundary fixes and Calculated Take-Off Time (CTOT), which are enabled by greater cross-border flight data and trajectory sharing and are targeted at individual flights, are replacing blanket miles/minutes in trail restrictions. However, their effectiveness depends on trajectory prediction accuracy and the conformance of flights to the cleared trajectory. To help understand prediction accuracy and factors affecting flight time conformance in order to construct better models, we analyse case-study traffic flows from Fukuoka FIR to Incheon FIR and Incheon FIR to Shanghai FIR. We present the flow characteristics through SAPRA and AGAVO, and analyse departure time predictability from Narita airport (RJAA), flight time from RJAA to SAPRA, and flight time from Incheon airport (RKSI) to AGAVO, using historical data from before the pandemic.