Climate Change, Agriculture, and Internal Human Mobility in the Bhutan Himalayas

Abstract

When it comes to the impact of climate change, Bhutan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries. Although Bhutan has not contributed anything to cause climate change, it is facing the brunt of it impact. Bhutan’s climate is strongly influenced by the rugged mountainous terrain surrounding it as well as the Indian summer monsoon and changes in climate, which are increasing the vulnerability of vital economic sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and water resources. Climate change also impacts the country’s rich biodiversity and fragile community livelihoods through the increased risks of hazardous events such as glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts, and forest fires. This chapter analyses the impacts of climate change on agricultural livelihoods and associated internal human mobility. Despite being a small country, Bhutan has been doing its best to adapt to the impacts of climate change, but its topography and inadequate resources due to the small economy have been constraining Bhutan's developmental philosophy of Gross National Happiness and its achievement of its global sustainable development goals.

1 Introduction

Owing to its diverse mountain topography, rugged terrain, and large variations of altitude over short distances, Bhutan is one of the most vulnerable and exposed countries in the world to the peril of climate change. Hydropower, agriculture, and tourism are the major sources of revenue; however, these sectors happen to be highly sensitive to the impact of climate change. With changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, more than 90% of the river system in Bhutan is expected to be affected due to snow-melts and glacier retreats.¹ Although the carbon sequestration in Bhutan is about three times greater than its national greenhouse gas emissions, yet, the country faces the brunt of climate change impact.² One of the impacts often dominating the discourses includes the forced human mobility of communities from their homes pushing them to extreme poverty.³ Such an impact severely undermines the efforts of Bhutan in attaining critical development pathways to achieve the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. On the other hand, inaccessible and sparse hydrometeorological data makes it difficult to understand the interactions of natural ecosystems and the social dynamisms of climate impact. Considering such information gaps in the complexity of climatic change and its impact, this chapter covers the inter-linkages of climate change and agriculture-based livelihoods and internal human mobility including a review of the policies and strategies put in place by the Government of Bhutan.

2 Climate Change in the Bhutan Himalayas

According to Rao,⁴ disaster results from a combination of endogenous and exogenous shocks to physical, economic, and social systems, whereby the adaptive capacity of communities weakens with the loss of economic and social support. This usually happens during the occurrence of climate extreme events. When extreme events occur with greater frequency, the adaptation capacity of most communities is lost or significantly reduced. In Bhutan, wind-storms, cyclones, floods, and landslides are the major climatic events that have caused significant loss and damage to lives, livelihoods, and property. There have been more than 12 major disaster incidences in Bhutan since 1985.⁵ In these contexts, the need to maximise efforts by all entities, individually and collectively to minimise the effects on all fronts, is crucial.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment report reveals that warming in the Himalayas will be higher than in other regions.⁶ Bhutan is specifically located in the eastern Himalayas covering the foothills in the south to the inner Himalayas in the mid zone and the high Himalayas in the north within a range of 150 kms. In the context of Bhutan, natural hazards and extreme events have significantly increased in the recent past⁷ and such extreme events appear to be associated with temperature rise. Topographically, the annual average temperature in Bhutan ranges from 25 °C in the sub-tropical south to minus 15 °C at the highest elevation in the north.⁸ Such wide differences in temperature mean that the impact of global environmental change will have different mean levels or intensity of implications at the different elevation zones in these mountainous landscapes, making it difficult to take adequate steps to prevent or mitigate disasters as the need may be.

Along with the projected temperature increase, there is also the projection of increased precipitation levels over South Asia.⁹ The seasonal precipitation projections show large variability with precipitation increasing in the Western Himalayas and decreased precipitation levels in general towards the Eastern Himalayas. The simulation of temperature and precipitation in Bhutan and South Asia show that until the year 2069, the temperature in both the regions will increase as much as 1.3–3.5 °C.¹⁰ It is also expected that some regions in South Asia will experience drought with decreasing trend and some other would experience increasing trend of as much as 37% compared to the current level of precipitation. This means that some regions such as western India may experience drought, whereas some regions of South Asia such as Bhutan will have to deal with significant flooding, landslides, and erosion. On the other hand, the likelihood of heatwave and droughts is also expected to increase and such incidences will directly affect the farming communities more than any other occupations. As a result, many biological resources will undergo significant changes ultimately affecting the socio-economic well-being of communities such as mountain farmers who depend significantly upon natural resources for their livelihood.

Bhutan is located between two areas with very contrasting climatic conditions, such as the north Indian plains with relatively higher precipitation and Tibet's dry, continental highlands which makes up the climatic complexity in the eastern to the central Himalayan region,¹¹ while in the southern foothills of Bhutan, precipitation is influenced by the Indian monsoon blowing against Bhutan’s southern foothills and towards the high Himalayas.¹² As one moves from the southern foothills to the northern high Himalayas, the amount of precipitation declines along the altitudinal gradient. In the foothills, the average precipitation is recorded as about 3000–6000 mm per year while in the high Himalayas and central Himalayas, it is about 1500–2500 mm and 600–800 mm per year, respectively. Rainfall received in the regions of the area with windward-oriented mountain ranges is relatively elevated, even as much as double or even triple.¹³ Thus the already existing climatic variability at its different locations owing to high topographic variations, by virtue of their complex biophysical characteristics coupled with the intricate network of mountains and narrow valleys, make Bhutan, one of the most vulnerable countries to global climatic change. Such a complexity with significant climate change poses significant risks and hazards to crop farming and human well-being.

In addition to the physical constraints due to the mountainous landscapes, glaciers account for about 3.4% of the country’s total surface area and Bhutan is home to a total of 677 glaciers and 2674 glacial lakes.¹⁴ About 66 glaciers within Bhutan (Fig. 1) recorded between the years 1963 and 1993 show an average retreat rate of 8.1%, positively correlated with temperature. Critically, those glaciers also showed a higher rate of melting leading to reduction in snow cover and in the volume of the glaciated areas.¹⁵ This would continue to alter the environment in the coming decades faster than it did in the last several decades. For instance, significant areas of glaciers have decreased (about 11%) in the last 25 years (1990 to 2015).¹⁶ Such melting of glaciers is compounded by the Indian monsoon during the summer, increasing the sediment loads that are discharged posing a significant danger to the infrastructure in the downstream areas. Floods particularly Glacial Lake Outburst Floods¹⁷ (GLOFs) not only affect Bhutan but have a major impact further downstream in the Brahmaputra basin, affecting even Bangladesh, which is categorised as one of the most densely populated areas in the world.¹⁸

Fig. 1

Glaciers within and around Bhutan. Source Authors

The risk of landslides in the mountainous topography of Bhutan increases manifold, especially during the monsoon rains and flash floods. Such incidences of climate events that have been occurring in the past years have shown relative increase more recently. Floods are the most common occurrence particularly affecting the river basins where most of the farmland and agricultural infrastructure are located. Increasing incidences of floods and droughts also pose a major risk to infrastructure and hydropower projects which account for more than 25% of the total revenue in the country’s Gross Domestic Product, due to the significant change in the amount of water discharged.¹⁹ In urban areas, flooding and heat stress have been pronounced already and Bhutan needs to prepare for these climate risks and hazards in order to reduce its vulnerability. Recent reports published by the UNDP²⁰ in Bhutan show that Bhutan is experiencing the relatively high risks and hazards emanating from climatic hazards.²¹

3 The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Climate change can have a negative impact on agricultural systems such as farming in the mountainous and steep slopes which is relatively more susceptible to its impact.²² In Bhutan, most of the farm lands are located on steep slopes with more than 50% of the farmers practising subsistence farming and most of these farm plots being rain-fed. Given that Bhutan practises subsistence crop farming, which is highly dependent on precipitation and temperature, any changes in these variables would be expected to have a significant impact on agriculture.²³ When agriculture is affected, this would certainly lead to food security issues. Consequently, there appears to be limited prospects of enhancing economic activity owing to its location and hence, as a land locked, resource poor country, Bhutan, is likely to face significant environmental and economic changes in the future. This is not only relevant for human well-being but also for natural ecosystems. As Bhutan is located in one of the biodiversity hotspot regions of the world, it would lose a significant number of species or at least experience a distinct alteration in the behaviour of species. The following section elaborates on the specific hazards and livelihood impact with respect to climatic impact.

3.1 Impact on Crop Farming and Livestock Rearing

A large number of the Bhutanese populace is employed in the agricultural sector (more than 50%), and agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climatic conditions particularly with changing monsoon cycles and farming periods.²⁴ The projections until the year 2069 show that precipitation in Bhutan will increase significantly and such increasing precipitation may pose a risk to the limited agricultural land in Bhutan. This is particularly so because landslides and soil erosion are two major drivers of land degradation. Arable land in Bhutan accounts for less than three per cent of the total land area and about 30% of this land is located on slopes that are vulnerable to landslides and soil erosion.²⁵ With the increasing trend of precipitation levels, the already vulnerable land is likely to be degraded completely.

Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns affect crop yields as well, and as a result, its contribution to the GDP would diminish significantly. It is a fact that crop yields have already begun showing a declining trend. For instance, in the year 2000, agriculture contributed 26.8% of the total GDP, in 2011 this reduced to about 18%, and in 2022, it has accounted for a mere 12%.²⁶ Smaller land holdings, climate change impact, land degradation, decreasing areas for productivity (28,000 ha in 1981 to 20,000 ha in 2017), decrease in farming population, and a decrease of about four per cent in investments have deeply affected the agriculture sector.²⁷ While some variables may not be directly associated with climatic impact, variables such as investments are indirectly associated with climate change.

Furthermore, crops and livestock are also susceptible to various pests and diseases, and with climate change, it is argued, which will lead to new diseases among livestock as well as more pests affecting crops. The appearance of new pests and diseases are already reported in many cases such as army worms, giant African land snails, fruit fly in citrus fruits, citrus greening, late blight in potatoes, turcicum leaf blight, grey leaf spot in maize, ginger rot, cardamom rot, and maize root rot. Such pests and diseases eventually reduce crop productivity. For instance, maize harvest in the year 2021 was recorded at 30,939 metric tonnes, which is 10,026 metric tonnes less than the yield in 2020. The decline is about 24%, and 24,321 metric tonnes less than the 55,259 metric tonnes in 2018, which is believed to have associated to occurrence of several pests and diseases.²⁸ The increase in the pests and the diseases is found to have occurred due to changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns.

Agriculture including crop farming and animal husbandry is integral to rural development. In this context, the availability of water plays a significant role in crop and animal production. Bhutan is known to have rich water resources, with per capita mean annual flow availability at 109,000 cubic metres.²⁹ However, most of the farmers depend on monsoon rain, small streams, and spring water for crop cultivation. It is challenging for farmers to access perennial rivers for irrigation to their farms, owing to the topography and gradient of the landscape. A relatively small majority of the farmers has access to stream water, but recent reports have documented the drying up of the water sources in Bhutan. Consequently, as a result of increasing scarcity of water across Bhutan, farmers are experiencing an increasing trend of food shortage and incidents of conflicts concerning water sharing among farmers in the rural areas due to a dwindling water supply are also on the rise. The cases of water related conflicts are only expected to increase in the future.³⁰

In the year 2011, the Pemagatshel district in the south eastern region of Bhutan experienced a severe dry spell during the months of May and June, and in the same year, hundreds of acres of land were left fallow, as farmers were unable to cultivate any crop due to the drought during the farming season. Due to the mountainous landscape, creating watersheds is important so that spring water can be stored to provide water for farmers. This is one of the reasons why Bhutan has always protected its forests so as to protect its water sources in the mountains.

There are approximately 186 watersheds in the country that are fed by various sources such as lakes and marshes. However, it is alarming to note that the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development states that water sources in the Himalayas are drying up at a relatively faster rate than in any other region and that Bhutan is a vulnerable area that is going to be critically affected.³¹ The effect of the drying up of the water sources may become apparent with the passage of time and with the slow onset events in the long run; however, the extreme events are leading to crop loss and damage. Since water is a fundamental resource, the increasing scarcity of this resource would ultimately affect the local people forcing them to look for more viable alternatives.

Similarly, incidences of extreme weather events have significantly affected farmers as cultivated crops are damaged. The evidence reveals that the frequency of events has significantly increased in the recent decade than in the 2000s, 1990s or the 1980s.³² Extreme events include flash floods, high-intensity rainfall, wind-storms, hailstorms, landslides, crop diseases, and pests. The loss of crops puts additional pressure on farmers in the rural area where production is already constrained by the slow onset of climatic events such as changing temperature and precipitation patterns. When the livelihood of farmers is put at risk, they have no other option but to migrate elsewhere for their safety and well-being. Climatic events not only jeopardise the livelihood of farmers but also affect culture and tradition. In Bhutan, culture, tradition, and biodiversity are closely related in the concept of dru-na-gu, which, in the national language, means nine basic crops that are offered to appease deities and gods during rituals. When the composition of the nine basic crops or the value of the dru-na-gu is incomplete, the culture and tradition are also put at risk and hence the local people’s tendency to migrate elsewhere becomes strong, as the need to cling to one’s ancestral place is ultimately diminished.

3.2 Livelihood Impacts

Bhutan has a shortage of agricultural land as with less than three per cent of the total area being cultivable. Further, only about seven per cent of this land is arable,³³ and most of it is located on the steep slopes of the mountains. As the crop yield has been decreasing over the years, it has led to a major food shortage among the farmers and consequently an increasing trend towards food imports.³⁴ Food security, therefore, has become a pressing issue in the rural areas, and with further climatic impacts, this phenomenon is likely to worsen in the future. When crops fail in rural areas, farmers find themselves in difficult situations and are forced to find alternative ways to sustain their life. The failure of crops also means that farming continues to become more expensive as the output would always appear in the negative compared to the input cost for farming. In such a case, farmers migrate elsewhere especially to urban centres leaving their lands fallow. In the rural areas in Bhutan, there are significant number of abandoned houses or in Bhutan’s national language what are known as Gungtongs.³⁵ Such a phenomenon of Guntongs also means that all the lands registered to abandoned houses remain fallow and also a lesser number of farmers engage in food production leading to a decreasing food supply to the urban areas resulting in food insecurity. As a landlocked mountainous country, with a unique culture and tradition, the issue of food security becomes crucial given that agriculture is the backbone of economic activities for a subsistence farming community.

The mountains of Bhutan are home to these subsistence farmers who are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihood; however, these natural resources are very sensitive to climatic change. Bhutan being located in the eastern Himalayan region is also among the ten biodiversity hotspots as it is home to multiple species of flora and fauna that are in the sensitive zone particularly from the point of view of conservation and these too are vulnerable to climatic changes.³⁶ Therefore as a mountainous country, it faces significant challenges currently and is bound to face more in the future. Climate change also threatens the significant poverty reduction success that Bhutan has achieved in the recent decades. While facing such adaptation challenges, it is likely that people especially living in the rural areas would fall back into poverty and ultimately would be forced to migrate to the urban areas. According to the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative ranking index for 2020, Bhutan is ranked 94th among 182 countries with respect to the country’s vulnerability to climate change.³⁷

4 Human Mobility and Rural Agricultural Livelihoods

The majority of the farmers living on the steep slopes in the mountains have small landholdings and practise subsistence farmers.³⁸ Given the dangerous trend of the drying up of spring water, decreasing crop yield, and increasing incidences of human-wildlife conflicts, it is likely that events such as these would exacerbate rural to urban human mobility or at least internal human mobility. Although not declared officially, there is a sense that many of these migrants could be classified as a climate-displaced population.³⁹ Additionally, human mobility could lead to struggles for control over scarce resources, exerting greater pressure on the state.

The rate of urban expansion and human mobility from the rural areas is highly connected in Bhutan. Data reveals that in 2005, about 70% of the people lived in rural areas, and the expansion rate in the capital city was recorded as seven per cent.⁴⁰ In 2009, the internal human mobility rate was six per cent,⁴¹ and by 2040 or so, it is estimated that about 70% of the country’s population will be living in urban areas.⁴² In such a situation, there is likely to be a major labour shortage in the rural areas, ultimately exerting pressure on the socio-economic fabric of the country. The present situation also shows evidence of the fact that more and more male members (about 54%) from rural households are migrating out to urban centres leaving female members behind. However whether the reasons for this human mobility are specifically the result of climate change impact or not is not known.⁴³ It can be argued that when farmers leave their lands to turn fallow, such land would eventually be covered by forests. Although increasing forests can contribute to the carbon sequestration capacity of Bhutan but it is also a fact that forests cannot be a substitute for agricultural crops, in one hand, and more forests may also mean more wildlife population that may exacerbate the already existing human-wildlife conflicts, on the other, and such a shift can pose a risk to food security.

Currently, the capital city of Bhutan alone has an overall population of 13,8736, which accounts for about 20% of the country’s total population. It is also a fact that a major proportion of this population consists of people who have migrated from rural areas,⁴⁴ thereby exhibiting a relatively higher net positive rate of human mobility. In fact this rate of human mobility appears to be one of the highest in South Asia.⁴⁵ Although the direct link associating human mobility with climate change as a driver is weak, it can be noted that the districts exhibiting net negative human mobility appear to have a relatively higher proportion of people engaged in agriculture and also with higher climate vulnerabilities.⁴⁶ It is difficult to determine through any official report, the extent to which climate change impact is a driver for human mobility of people in Bhutan. ‘In 2017, 0.1% of the Bhutanese population—or 556 people—listed “Natural Calamities” as the reason for migrating, which could indicate a move because of an extreme weather event such as flooding or drought, events that are becoming stronger with climate change. This percentage was reported as 0.2 in 2005.’⁴⁷ Although these numbers have been obtained from the population and housing census data, it should be noted that climate change entails an extended period of time leading to different environmental shifts which therefore makes it difficult to pin down specific impacts in a census questionnaire. Thus, a scientific research specifically on climate change impact affecting mobility is necessary to generalise the claim. Human mobility has many dimensions and one of the reasons is that water is a fundamental resource required for drinking and farming. When farmers experience water scarcity, there is no better option than to migrate to a different place. For instance, as of April 2023, most of the drinking water sources (about 1856 water sources) in Bhutan have dried up.⁴⁸ More than half of the farmers who cultivate paddy in Dagana district have migrated elsewhere due to the shortage of water.⁴⁹

This issue is part of a larger public debate in the country, with a recent newspaper article projecting that

…the drying up of water sources will eventually affect the agriculture system, and it will have a greater impact on country’s food security and sufficiency, ……….. When the land becomes uncultivated due to scarcity of water, people living in rural areas will be forced to migrate towards urban areas whereby it will lead to rural-urban migration.⁵⁰

In Bhutan, the internal rate of human mobility is the highest among all the countries in South Asia.⁵¹ The major proportion has moved from rural areas that are relatively more vulnerable, to the less vulnerable areas, and in many cases, migration has been from rural areas to urban areas.⁵² Another notable feature is the fact that areas with relatively higher climate hazard incidents exhibited relatively higher incidences of poverty.⁵³ It can be deduced that there is also an overlap of incidences of poverty and vulnerability probably because farmers lose their income through various other ways. It could be that some of the most cited reasons recorded were in search of economic opportunity, land fragmentation, natural disasters, lack of capital, and lack of labour. Some of the reasons may appear to be solely economic, but it can be deduced that among subsistence farming communities, agriculture forms the major economic activity, and therefore, the reasons cited may be associated with agriculture either directly or indirectly.⁵⁴ A study involving 240 samples from six districts in western and central Bhutan indicates that to adapt to climate change impact such as erratic patterns of rainfall, unpredictable weather patterns, and drying of irrigation sources, farmers relate to untimely rainfall (57%) and droughts (45%) as the most common weather events and believe that migrating to an urban area would be the better option for their well-being.⁵⁵ It is difficult to ascertain completely, and it is solely climatic events that influence human mobility from one place to the other as there exists a knowledge gap around climate change, climate-induced, or climate-influenced human mobility in Bhutan. Thus, a proper scientific research and study to understand rural–urban dynamics are highly recommended as this will in turn help informed decision-making for policymakers and implementers of sustainable development.

5 Policies and Strategies to Address Issues of Climate Change Impacts and Human Mobility

Bhutan has recognised climate change impact as one of the serious challenges to sustainable development as it faces a series of existential challenges. At the global level, the country is committed to addressing the global agenda of sustainable development by incorporating developmental goals in the country’s five-year plans where thematic areas such as poverty reduction, equitable socio-economic development, environmental sustainability, gender equity, good governance, and community participation are prioritised for implementation. These agenda points are included in Bhutan’s policy document, namely Bhutan 2020,⁵⁶ National Environment Strategy,⁵⁷ and the Bhutan water vision and policy. These documents specifically highlight the limits of environmental sustainability, low-carbon and climate-resilient development, and the need for integrated water resources management, respectively. These policies and plans are formulated to enhance self-reliance and inclusive socio-economic development in the country.

Currently, climatic events such as unpredictable growing seasons, floods, flash floods, and droughts have become a common phenomenon in the country. Therefore, strong policy interventions are required to slow or reduce these harmful patterns. Although Bhutan has enacted various climate change policies to address climate-related issues, but implementation at the local level is relatively slow. At the national level, Bhutan has made significant progress in strengthening institutional structures to address the issues of imbalanced spatial economic development and climate change. For example, a National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology, an autonomous entity was established in 2016⁵⁸ and is mandated for weather monitoring, forecasting, and early warning. This centre is responsible for assessing and informing the nation about any hazards or risks pertaining to climate change so that appropriate action can be taken by relevant agencies.

There are some examples that merit highlighting such as the fact that Bhutan, unlike many other countries, has shown strong political commitment to conservation and sustainability with a pledge to remain carbon neutral in its energy consumption.⁵⁹ This is expected to enhance the country’s capacity to respond to the uncertain environmental challenges. The other is by enacting a national climate change policy which is expected to help address the climate-related issues in the country. Thirdly, to be transparent and to support and uphold the pledge to remain a carbon neutral country, Bhutan has submitted its third national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Lastly, Bhutan has formulated the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) priority based on the level of vulnerability of different sectors such as agriculture and livestock, forestry and biodiversity, health, water resources, energy, natural disasters, and infrastructure.⁶⁰ The NAPA priority is integrated into the national five-year plans so that the budget allocated in the beginning of the five-year plans can be used in an integrated manner. Accordingly, Bhutan enacted and implemented the low-carbon development policy and also incorporated many of the points from the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, into its five-year development plans. This is to ensure that greenhouse gas emissions do not exceed the country’s sequestration capacity and it is also to ensure that policies and institutional responses to climate change are in accordance with the country’s developmental philosophy which is sustainable and climate resilient. Five-year plans were started in Bhutan in the 1960s, and currently, Bhutan is drawing towards the end of its 13th Five-Year Plans.

Bhutan’s agricultural research and development policy acknowledges that limited land for agriculture, dynamics of rural–urban human mobility, decreasing investment in agriculture, and the under-developed value chains constrained by climate change⁶¹ are the critical areas that need immediate attention, if the country needs to move forward in sustaining a self-sufficient economy. The limited land for agriculture (2.75% of the country’s total land area) is a significant bottle neck that urgently requires a suitable strategy to improve crop productivity, managing drying up water sources or the utilisation of water for development along with the development and improvement of infrastructure and addressing soil and land management. And therefore in addition to the implementation of formal policies and strategies, Bhutan has implemented flagship projects to address these recurring issues and also to pilot test the implemented activities.

One of the sectors identified is the agricultural sector that emits relatively higher levels of greenhouse gases; however, as a country embarking on carbon neutrality, it is crucial for the government to take steps to ensure that strategies are put in place to bring down these emissions. In keeping with this, the Bhutanese government has developed an agriculture land development guideline⁶² for farmers to enhance land productivity through specific land use. It is expected that by this farmers would be able to enhance their land’s productivity in terms of crop yield. The government has organised advocacy programmes encouraging farmers to develop entrepreneurial skills so that available land can be made more productive. One such initiative is the organic flagship programme⁶³ which is expected to address the employment issue and to enhance economic opportunities in rural Bhutan. The flagship programmes are created to deliver ‘immediate’ and ‘tangible’ impacts on society and economic growth, by addressing nine priority areas that require coordination and multi-sectoral interventions. The programmes include Health, Education, Digital Drukyul, Water, Organic Bhutan, Start-up, Tourism, Waste management, and Footprints of National Day, and the implementation of these programmes is monitored directly by the Prime Minister’s office. For instance, the climate-resilient theme⁶⁴ programme includes the enhancement of climate smart agriculture,⁶⁵ sustainable management of lands prone to landslides, flood prevention, national capacity for weather forecasting, mobilisation of the community to develop climate-resilient farmlands, water harvesting, and the adaptation to droughts. Climate smart agriculture is expected to reduce greenhouse gases and also enhance the resilience of farming practices. These flagship projects are expected to address rural–urban human mobility by enhancing farming practices a climate resilient in the rural areas and consequently increase the food security status of the country.

Furthermore, the climate policy of the Kingdom of Bhutan reiterates that the commitment made by the country to remain carbon neutral is consistent with the Paris Agreement.⁶⁶ This is a significant milestone in keeping the country in the forefront in addressing global issues among others. Though climate change is a global issue, yet its impact is felt locally. It is vital that the vulnerabilities at the local level must be addressed. At the local level in Bhutan, very little has been achieved so far due to the lack of resources. Local governments are not mandated to address climate change issues although the five-year plans do contain specific key result areas in an integrated manner. The issue of human mobility has been significant in rural areas and that has created a major labour shortage and, in many cases, has led to feminisation of agriculture in farming; there are also cases where lands are left fallow and this phenomenon is increasing steadily.⁶⁷ It is interesting to note that despite Bhutan having several policy instruments and legal frameworks in place to provide the agriculture sector an enabling environment to develop and sustain agriculture, the share of public investment in agriculture has been diminishing. Concerning the issue of rural–urban human mobility, the government has introduced an equity-based approach by investing in education, income, and health indicators in rural areas and other welfare programmes such as subsidies, transfers, enhancement of off-farm income by rural–urban connectivity, rural service provisions, connectivity to external markets, and addressing institutional and human resources requirements, although, connectivity to external markets, achieving human resource requirements are still a challenge owing to limited resources.⁶⁸ Yet, such reforms are expected to address spatial inequalities and reduce rural–urban human mobility and ultimately enhance a more balanced socio-economic development.

6 Gaps in Policy and Practices to Address Climate Change Impacts

Bhutan has made considerable investments in water resources, infrastructure development, and soil and land management yet there has been limited input to address future climate change impacts. For instance, investments have been made in irrigation systems in the country, as majority of the farmers are small landholders and practise subsistence farming requiring irrigation channels for a continuous supply of water to their farms, but these infrastructures have not been made climate resilient. This is because most irrigation schemes were constructed as earthen canals that are in the mountainous landscape where landslides and soil erosion are frequent, and these structures therefore are not particularly efficient or resilient to extreme climate events.

Climate change impact is a cross-cutting issue where stakeholder collaboration and coordination are important; however, coordination among the institutions and stakeholders appears to be relatively weak in Bhutan. Institutional linkages require strengthening collaboration and coordination for better outcomes. Managing water resources, managing land, and improving irrigation structures definitely require more than one agency to devise a sustainable solution.

Furthermore, understanding constraints concerning biophysical, financial capacity, and technical knowledge in managing water resources in a holistic manner hinders farmers in achieving food and nutrition security.

Similarly, there has been an impetus given to farm road construction in the country providing access to farmers. Indeed having a strong road network, access to hydropower as energy and telecommunications are fundamental for rural development. These services can bring significant benefits to farmers. The construction of farm roads has indeed brought notable benefits to farmers in Bhutan. However, since these roads were constructed on mountain slopes with minimal technologies, the development has also left several negative impacts such as soil erosion and landslides, as these roads were not constructed to be climate resilient. Most of these roads now require additional upfront investment. As a mountainous country, Bhutan requires a robust financial base to reduce risks that stem from climate impacts; however, as a small country with limited prospects in business, it has a small economy, limited public funds, and competing needs for other development investments. Such competition results into a series of fragmented small investments that are unsustainable in the long term and lead to a recurrent loss of funds due to repeated repair and maintenance needs and often leaving no or limited fund for technology development and research. There is also a lack of reliable and quality data because of which it is difficult to trace the historical development of the agriculture sector. Credible data is required to understand the dynamic of climate change impact especially when a sizable investment to enhance climate-resilient agriculture is undertaken. Quality and reliable climate data is equally paramount to forecast and target advisories to support farmers with appropriate local actions. However, technical capacities among the hydromet, agriculture, and local governments remain inadequate. Similarly, limited disaster knowledge and information on potential sources and locations of natural hazards such as landslides, risks of floods, or drought are a major challenge.

The lack of financial and technical capability is compounded by poor coordination and minimal collaboration among stakeholders which is ultimately affecting the much-needed climate initiatives and actions. It is highly recommended that any climate-resilient development plan or policy ought to adopt an integrated sectoral approach. Furthermore, while climate change dominates the discourse at the national level and often among researchers and academia, there is still a lack of awareness among policymakers and often the policymaking is not based on research results. This is often reflected in the lack of capacity at the local level with a relatively poor understanding of localised impacts of climate change and variability. Such a situation creates a vacuum at the local level in developmental planning and managing limited resources efficiently and effectively and in building resilient infrastructure that would be able to address the climate-related hazards and risks in the rural areas. The lack of facilities and desirable infrastructure in the rural areas compels people to migrate from rural to urban centres. It is seen that rural development has been lagging behind due to the lack of synergy with an effective urbanisation policy that will promote balanced growth and boost local economies and subsequently link the rural and urban populace.

7 Conclusion

The chapter and its assessment reveal that Bhutan’s climate ranges from warm and humid in the south to cold climate in the north. The Indian summer monsoon and the wintery Siberian winds affect its seasonal atmospheric circulation. Temperature and precipitation changes have changed significantly in the recent decades in Bhutan, and such a development poses strong risks to the ecology, the economy, and the vulnerability of the community. Bhutanese farmers practise subsistence agriculture and farming on limited pockets of land situated on the steep slopes of a mountainous topography of Bhutan and have experienced serious climatic impacts with crop losses owing to unpredictable rainfall patterns, wind-storms, droughts and flash floods, and other calamities in the past, as well as in the more recent years, making current agricultural practices highly vulnerable to climatic change. The impact of climate change has been huge and one of the significant developments has been human mobility especially from rural to urban resulting in a shortage of labour force and thereby threatening food and nutrition security. Owing to low productivity and high cost of input, agriculture is no longer a lucrative and viable source of income any more for people living in rural Bhutan. Although the data on the impact of climate change resulting in human mobility in Bhutan is relatively difficult to ascertain, but it is interesting to note that until the current year, more than 50% of the country’s population continued to be employed in agriculture and it is one of the important sectors that contributes to the Gross Domestic Product of Bhutan. It is clear that changing climatic variables has affected crop farming in the recent years and consequently food security in the rural areas. Thus, the economic activity around agriculture and human mobility can be linked and it is apparent that the same as an compounding effect on food and nutrition security. Since climate change impacts are significant, making Bhutan one of the most vulnerables in the world, it is of vital importance to delve into research that helps design effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to address climate change impacts and its influence on human mobility.

It appears that Bhutan has been putting notable efforts to reduce the vulnerability and create resilient farming practices crafting relevant policies and introducing low-carbon development strategies, including measures for supporting farmers for entrepreneurship development. However, there has been a lack of reliable data and funds for other competing developmental needs. These are further constrained by a lack of coordination and collaboration and sectoral linkages without realising that climate change is a cross-cutting issue and linkages among different stakeholders and institutions are vital. Therefore, more robust data should be generated and shared among sectors to facilitate informed decision-making. Current research shows that mitigation and adaptation efforts must go hand in hand, but how addressing agricultural productivity and climate change impacts on farming can address human mobility should be given priority, in order to ensure sustainable development. Furthermore, the procedures concerning agricultural practices and local economic development should be streamlined, reinforced, and strengthened for climate-resilient development.