Current Situation and Future of Precision Agriculture in Thailand

Abstract

The traditional agricultural research and improvement framework, based on the reductionism paradigm, that form the conceptual basis of agriculture today, are insufficient to address the demands of various actors. Precision Agriculture (PA), paradigms and technologies, have their origins in improving the efficiency of farm-level agricultural resource management based on understanding-driven/data-driven paradigm (UDP), especially modeling and decision support systems (DSS). DSS can be further developed into PA Simulators and are relevant to agricultural systems in a small-farm context. UDP paradigm is systemically creating new collaborative learning and evolving predictive capacity, which create opportunities to co-manage limited resources. In Thailand since 2015, PA was considered as a means of helping policy makers, researchers, and farmers to deal with increased information, increasingly complex decisions and to professionalize their activities. PA has been widely proposed and developed as providing a basis for improving sustainability of farm-level resource management. However, PA has, up-to-now and in practice, had limited impact in many farm-level resource management contexts, in particular land and labor resources in Thailand. Failures can be attributed to non-delivery, inaccessible technologies and un-coordinated-isolated-silo-short-term-based agencies/actors of government institutions. We have conducted a series of forums on PA for fruit crops with groups of experts and key stakeholders during late 2020 to early 2021. Four plausible future scenarios of PA for fruit crops in Thailand were formulated based on trends and drivers in social, technology, economy, environment, policy and value contexts. It was concluded that policy makers, with long-term political wills, must reinvent the entire institutional system to take advantage of emerging analog and digital technologies. The new system should meet demands and challenges of the BCG model (Bio-Circular-Green economy model). The model called for inclusiveness of actors, i.e., small farms and multi-disciplinary scientists for long-term vision and goal.

^☆本研究由泰国科学研究与创新(TSRI)项目资助，项目编号:ORG6410001。Kanpitcha Bunsiri女士在当地和全球范围内积极协助组织了新冠疫情下的研讨论坛。

1 Introduction

On January 19, 2021, the Thai Cabinet approved a new strategic engine to increase the growth of the country based on Bio-Circular-Green Economy model (BCG model) for the period of 2021–2026 (2564–2569 B.E.). Under the BCG model, the government has also formulated a policy to attract and engage younger generations, who are the crucial driver of the country’s income status. In addition, the prime minister also issued an order to establish two national-level committees, namely; the policy/administrative and the executive committees.¹

To build a new economy, the strategy defined BCG model as a sustainable economic model based on science, technology and innovation that strengthen and support the competitiveness capacity of individuals and country. BCG covers four sectors, also known as 4 S-curves, namely; agriculture and food, health and medical, energy, material and biochemistry, tourism and creative economy. Agricultural products, with high volume and low value, are an essential component of BCG model value chain for high value and low volume, based on processing capacity for various products, including bioenergy, biochemical and materials, food and feed, cosmetics, nutrition and biopharma products. BCG will generate an economic value of 4.4 trillion Baht or 24% of GDP in five years and will create an additional 16.5 million jobs.²

Circular Economy (CE), Green Economy (GE), and Bioeconomy (BE) concepts are joined by the common concept to reconcile social, environmental, and economic goals. The three concepts are currently mainstreamed in academia and policy making as key sustainability avenues. GE acts as an “umbrella” concept, including components from CE and BE, which are resource-focused whereas GE acknowledges all ecological processes.

This paper discusses and proposes a generic policy and research framework for the implementation of PA, under BCG model, as a broader initiative than the development of an agricultural system output. Our framework aims to foster inclusiveness by co-learning situations and co-evolving of alternatives for efficient resource management with local and international communities.

2 Current Situation and Future of PA in Thailand

From 2002 to 2019, agricultural land use in Thailand ranged between 24.2 and 23.9 million ha, operated by some 5.72–9.25 million small-farm households (HH) with an average of 4.22–2.58 ha per HH. The major crops are rice, natural rubber, sugarcane, cassava, maize, oil palm, and fruit crops and cover some 9.60, 4.00, 1.92, 1.44, 0.96, 0.96, and 0.64 million ha, respectively (MOAC, 2021).³ These small-farm households are mainly located in rural zones under risky rainfed conditions. Crops are being cultivated as mono-cropping systems for food and/or income for domestic consumption.

During 2002–2010, Thailand Research Fund (TRF), a funding agency under the Prime Minister’s Office, initiated a research network called Decision Support Systems, TRF-DSS.⁴ Some 20 DSS tools were developed and implemented for various users, ranging from policy makers to provincial and local government agencies engaged in short- and long-term planning and management.

In 2015, TRF initiated the Precision Agriculture research network (TRF-PA) as a continuation of TRF-DSS research network to cover the whole spectrum of agricultural research to policy. The network was mandated to organize research projects in Thailand and Laos PDR. Projects under TRF-PA aim to foster inclusiveness by co-learning situations and co-evolving of suitable PA innovations and alternatives with producer communities. In 2019, TRF was dissolved and Thailand Science, Research and Innovation (TSRI), a fund allocation agency under the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI), continued funding support through seven Program Management Units (PMUs).⁵

Started in 2020, these PMUs are tasked with organized research funds to 17 national programs based on four national Platforms (TSRI, 2021).⁶ For the fiscal budget 2022 (2565 B.E.), ARDA announced a call for proposals of nine research programs with PA and Smart Agriculture research program being part of the call (ARDA, 2021).⁷ The Call is a component of the 3^rd Platform (National Competitiveness Research and Innovation Platform) and under National Program number 10 (Competitive and Self-Resilience Economy program). With BCG model as the national economic model, key results are a number of new knowledge bases, new technologies, and new innovations to support efficient agricultural systems, food, health and medicine, and import substitute products under BCG model.

3 Future PA in Thailand: A Case of Fruit Crops

The key issue is a lack of an integrated framework to link knowledgeable workers with the situations and collaborate with farmers to indicate reasons or factors influencing the situations.⁸ This lack of an integrated framework leads to a series of chronic and cyclical situations, especially in agricultural production systems. The integrated framework should address a series of questions, for example, what will fruit crop growers, agricultural systems, and the environment in Thailand look like 20 years from now or in the 2040s and 2050s? How could young generations and land resources benefit from investments by both public and private funds to support and enhance fruit crops and agricultural systems? To understand the situation and how to adjust to the demands, we were very fortunate to receive funding from TSRI to begin our investigation in fruit crop production and consumption systems during the period of November 2020–March 2021.

The first author and assistants have been conducting a series of online and onsite discussion forums with 130 individuals. Forum participants, including government officials, fruit crop experts, small and medium enterprises, and some 40 young smart farmers, were invited to formulate plausible scenarios of fruit crop production and consumption systems. Prior to the forum, we have reviewed and identified that trends in agricultural advice networks globally are moving toward increased demands of fruit crops following the increasing population in Thailand and Greater Mekong Region (GMS). Our review also covered materials related to the implementation of precision agriculture technologies in various agricultural production systems. The forum also focused discussion on how these trends are intersecting with various organizations, as well as the roles and functions of organizations to handle the trends. The forum concluded with four plausible scenarios of the future of PA in Thailand, namely; Business as Usual (BAU), Big Group Thriving, Small Groups Thriving, and All Groups Thriving.

3.1 Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario

In this future scenario, government policies and interventions are short-term and very costly with the following characteristics; a) public agencies lack coordination and teamwork/network to support farm businesses and operating under a red-tape and bureaucratic culture, b) non-responsive research and innovation systems will be based on central organizational management structure and process without mechanisms to respond to real situations, c) communication will be based on both analog and digital methods, but with little utilization of data and information for decision-making processes to jointly improve the situation (Should each sentence be numbered as an item in the scenario—otherwise it’s all a bit disjointed).

The BAU scenario visualizes a PA future of mixed business of various isolated fruit crop farms based on the local and current experience and settings. Farm businesses have diverse technology use, skill and experience levels, and operate independently from each other. The consumers and suppliers will be linked by informal and inefficient resource utilization systems. Thai fruit crop farms will only produce raw materials for the middle-man that control and manage all other components of the fruit crop value chain. A majority of 0.64 million ha of fruit crop farm businesses will be a part of Thailand’s high carbon society and also high in chemical uses, energy, logistic costs, and remain in middle-income trap (MIT), with high levels of subsidy, and huge inequality both in income and social status/norm.

3.2 Big Group Thriving Scenario

In this future scenario, government policies and interventions are short-term and promote a quick win mindset. With similar characteristics as BAU scenario, the scenario is an inefficient resource utilization scenario. In the meantime, big businesses and some of large fruit crop farms will thrive based on their own ability and agreement to co-plan and co-operate. Some of small fruit crop farms, approximately 10% of the total fruit crop farms/areas, may be able to co-develop. (These are just all sentences that don’t flow into each other. Rather number them or make bullet points).

The Big Group scenario visualizes a PA future of big business of selected fruit crop farms will be based on the local and modern experience and farm settings. Fruit crop farm businesses will have more capacity to implement diverse technology, skill and experience levels and operate depending on big businesses, consumers, and suppliers. Thai fruit crop farms will produce raw materials and collaborate with big businesses and networks as a component of the fruit crop value chain. Some 10% of 0.64 million ha of small and isolated fruit crop farm businesses will be a part of Thailand’s high carbon society and also high in chemical uses, energy, logistic costs, and remain in a middle-income trap (MIT). The farms will also depend on high levels of subsidy, and huge inequality in both income and social status/norm.

3.3 Small Groups Thriving Scenario

In this future scenario, government policies and interventions remain as short-term and promote a quick win mindset, similar characteristics as BAU scenario. However, the government will implement a minor modification in the policy of the targeted group, from one-size-fit-all to small farmer groups policy. Some semi-responsive research and innovation systems, will be centrally based in the Capital, but with some mechanisms to respond to real situations. This system will communicate based on both analog and digital methods, with some utilizations of data and information for decision-making process to jointly improve the situation in the YEF and big business systems. In this scenario, small groups will be mainly established by Young Emerging Farms (YEF) and may link with big businesses and some large fruit crop farms. This collaboration will promote growth based on the ability and agreement to co-plan and co-operate. Some YEFs, approximately 40% of the total fruit crop farms/areas, may be able to be developed and sustained.

The Small Groups Thriving scenario visualizes a PA future of YEF business of various fruit crop farms based on the local and modern experience and farm settings. Fruit crop farm businesses will have the capacity to adopt diverse technology use, skill and experience levels and operate dependently with big businesses, consumers, and suppliers. Thai fruit crop farms will produce raw materials and collaborate with big business and network as a component of the fruit crop value chain. Some 40% of 0.64 million ha of small and isolated fruit crop farm businesses will be a part of Thailand’s high carbon society and also high in chemical uses, energy, logistic costs and remain in middle-income trap (MIT), with high level of subsidy, and huge inequality both income and social status/norm.

3.4 All Groups Thriving Scenario

In this future scenario, government policies and interventions are shifted to long-term and based on PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) process and mindset. Government investments support networking and learning centers of all groups, utilizing both top-down and bottom-up integrated and reductionism approaches to co-plan and co-operate based on BCG model. Fruit crop farms/areas achieve 100% circularity. Public and private agencies are in full coordination and teamwork/network to work with fruit crop farming communities and businesses, operating under good governance, equal partnership, and no red-tape and no bureaucratic culture. Fully-responsive research and innovation systems reorganized and distributed to establish learning centers in major fruit crop production zones of the country with various mechanism to respond and supply innovations in real situations. Communication will be based on both analog and digital methods and utilize data for decision-making process to jointly and constantly improve the situation. The farm owner/operator will collect, utilize, and synthesize data to improve their farm situations for a better understanding of horizontal and vertical relationships, similar to a village in Northeast Thailand (Watanabe, 2017⁹; Kono et al., 2018¹⁰).

The All Groups Thriving scenario visualizes a PA future of YEF business of various and well-targeted fruit crop farms based on both local and modern experience and farm settings, i.e., wisdom-driven fruit crop farms. The PA under this scenario is essentially the understanding-driven and data-driven paradigm (UDP), which combine the strength of both the demand and the supply domains. Fruit crop farm businesses will generate demands for actionable and diverse technology for local settings to operate collaboratively and dependently with the whole value chain, consumers, suppliers, and ecosystems. Thai fruit crop farms will produce high-quality products as a component of the sustainable and responsible consumption and production value chain. Some 60–80% of 0.64 million ha of small and networked fruit crop farm businesses will be a part of Thailand’s Low Carbon Society (LSC) and with efficient resource utilization alternatives. The farms will support the country’s goal of reaching the high-income country (HIC). The farm will operate based on Good Agriculture Practice and will link with the processing of various products in Good Manufacturing Practice (GM), which is essential for Sustainable Consumption and Practice (SCP). This scenario will achieve SDGs under SEP (Sufficient Economy Philosophy).

We can inclusively and socially collaborate to prepare and to ensure that the young generations could benefit from investments to support and enhance fruit crops and agricultural systems¹¹.¹² To enhance fruit crops and agricultural systems, we propose a framework for all four scenarios, with the help of scientific understandings, spatial databases, and PA Simulators. However, unlike existing approaches, our proposed framework has several novel features, as described in the following section, which should allow all actors to take plausible actions.

4 An Implementation Framework for the Future of PA

To achieve sustainable resource management for precision fruit crops in each future scenario under the BCG policy (Bio-Circular-Green), we are pleased to propose an integrated PA policy and research framework (Fig. 1). The framework is based on the advancement of and accessibility to information and communication technology (ICT) in rural Thailand, but are under-utilized by academic circles and government agencies. The reason for under-utilization of ICT is due mainly to its newness in Thailand, especially in the agriculture sector. The logical approach to improve the utilization of ICT in the future is to systemically implement the framework.

Fig. 1

(Source Modified from Jintrawet, 2019Footnote

Attachai Jintrawet, “A Platform for Digitizing and Scaling up Options with Small Farms into SDG: A Review”, in Yasuhito Shirato & Akira Hasebe (eds.), Climate Smart Agriculture for the Small-Scale Farmers in the Asian and Pacific Region, NARO, Japan and FFTC, Taiwan, 2019, p.139, http://www.naro.affrc.go.jp/english/laboratory/niaes/publications/fftc_marco_book2019/index.html.

)

An integrated PA policy and research framework.

In the framework, there are three groups of actors with respect to the future of PA in Thailand, namely; the End Actor, the Next Actor, and the Researcher/Innovator Actor. Let’s start from the bottom, the Researcher/Innovator Actor, where all PA technologies and innovations are being formulated and carefully investigated for a larger group of users and actors of the whole value. Here, two categories of actors represent those investigating and gaining scientific understandings about the nature and dynamic of PA on spatial and temporal dimension in various scientific fields. These understandings in both analog and digital formats must be converted into a digital database and predictive models, which will be linked by decision support systems of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for the Next and End Actors to jointly visualize the consequences of their decisions on society, environment, and economy. For example, the PA simulator, like a flight simulator as a tool to train airplane captains and pilots, could be used to train farmers to switch from current to precision fruit crop production systems.

For the Next Actor group, that are mainly staff of government agencies and private companies, they could also learn to use the PA simulator to mobilize the larger group of End Actors, the real fruit crop producers, the consumer and their association, and the policy makers.

The implementation framework allows actors to develop relationships and collaborations to achieve various goals and degrees of efficient resource utilization, with PA under the BCG model. The weakest and strongest relationship situations are described in the BAU and the All Groups Thriving scenarios, respectively. In situations where relationships favor the established large and small groups, then, the Big Group Thriving and Small Groups Thriving scenarios will cover some 10% and 40% of small and isolated fruit crop farm business will be a part of Thailand’s high carbon society, respectively. The successful implementation, for example the All Groups Thriving, requires a cultural shift in which individual members are committed to learn and gain understanding of these new ICTs in Thai’s context and share them with each other in their communities and organizations.¹⁴

5 Conclusion

This paper briefly described BCG model policy (Bio-Circular-Green) of the Thai Government as a strategy to improve situations of agricultural systems with respect to the whole value chain. We organized a series of discussion forums and concluded with four plausible scenarios of the future of PA in fruit crop production systems in Thailand. We recognized the limitation of the PA’s future, based on four scenarios and would like to encourage more studies to think of plausible future scenarios. One major lesson learned from our research during the discussion forum is the common agreement that interdisciplinary thinking and practice could bring in expertise from the disciplinary/reductionism paradigm, and that could formulate synergy between different actors. Thus, the contribution of our work is to raise awareness, develop capacity and community, and begin a cultural shift toward embedding shared value and innovation into organizational policy and research practices. These future scenarios provide outlines for policy makers to reinvent the institutional system. The new system may be based on the framework that can take advantage of emerging analog and digital technologies to meet demands and challenges. It could allow more joint ventures between small farms and multi-disciplinary scientists and actors for long-term vision and goal.