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2022—A Difficult Year for International Cooperation

In 2022, the world was still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic which had impacted every country on earth, but with limited solidarity on display. At the onset of the crisis, the scientific community immediately set out to develop a vaccine against the virus and in record time managed to produce remedies to protect citizens. But the distribution of the vaccine was very unequal around the world. On average, around 70% of the world’s population has received at least one does of a Covid-19 vaccine, but this number is only around 27% in low-income countries. While 90% of Chinese people, 70% of US citizens and 75% of EU citizens have completed a full set, only 30% of Africans have. This is all despite the efforts by the United Nations and the G20 to develop public private schemes to produce and distribute therapeutics and vaccines against Covid.

Covid-19 also had a dramatic impact on economies across the world. The lockdowns adopted to prevent the spread of the pandemic disrupted global value chains, brought entire sectors like tourism to a standstill and required governments to provide public support to businesses and citizens alike. As a result, public debt skyrocketed and the list of developing countries experiencing debt distress has greatly expanded. Default rates have risen as has the need for debt restructuring.

As the world was recovering from the pandemic, Russia invaded Ukraine in breach of international law. The invasion has caused enormous human suffering, but it has also impacted food, fuel, and fertiliser markets worldwide. Higher prices for commodities are fuelling inflation. Neighbouring regions are facing the impact of disrupted trade, tourism as well as an unprecented flow of migrants. More broadly, the war is denting business confidence and bringing additional investor uncertainty. For many countries this means additional pressures to an existing tight situation, in particular on the debt side. Thanks to the efforts led by the United Nation with Türkiye, an agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia to resume exports of grains and fertiliser from certain Ukrainian ports, thus reducing price pressures. However, as the war continues and its impact on food markets remains, the risks will continue to be too high as will the threat to poorer countries.

In 2022, we also saw efforts by the international community to step up the fight against climate change. The COP in Sharm el Sheik produced some results, notably in the form of the contours of a loss and damage fund for climate vulnerable countries. And although countries reaffirmed their commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, the fact is that no major new steps were announced by governments towards this goal. It is fair to say that at current trajectory this objective will be missed.

In July 2022, members of the World Trade Organisation reached a landmark agreement to curb subsidies that contribute to overfishing. This was the first time that a trade agreement was out at the service of achieving a sustainability goal. And at the Montreal Conference on the Convention on Biodiversity in December members of United Nations agreed on concrete measures to halt and reverse nature loss, including putting 30% of the planet and 30% of degraded ecosystems under protection by 2030. These two examples offer hope for multilateral cooperation to protect global public goods.

Finally, 2022 also saw the China–USA rivalry heating up. A visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taipei was followed by an announcement by China of its intention to end cooperation with the USA on climate change. Later in the year, the USA announced a set of measures severely restricting Chinese access to American technology and knowledge. After decades of working to see the economies of both countries’ convergence under one set of international rules under the World Trade Organisation, there is now a clear risk of fragmentation of the global regulatory framework. The risks of a misstep in the relationship with dire consequences for the rest of the world cannot be excluded.

Against this background, the world needs to see greater multilateral cooperation. The multiple crises that the world is facing require renewed engagement from the international community to devise effective responses. Multilateralism must be about preventing and protecting common interests and the values represented by the United Nations Charter that every member of the organisation has agreed to uphold.

The world has fundamentally changed since the end of the Second World War when the United Nations and the Bretton Woods Institutions were created. A more multipolar world, technological progress, the emergence of new actors in business and civil society, climate change as one of the greatest threats to humanity, a growing interdependence and much more point to the need to reform international governance to respond to today’s challenges.

A World Facing Threats to the Global Order

We are at a crossroads in terms of threats to the global order. When we look closely at the complex and interconnected challenges that we currently face, the call for multilateralism is a pragmatic choice that will ensure the most effective response. A number of today’s defining global issues require our utmost attention: the energy transition to combat climate change, preparing the world for the next pandemic, managing the risk of economic fragmentation, designing an international governance for artificial intelligence or managing nuclear risks. While debates about multilateralism often appear very theoretical, these examples with its practical implications for citizens around the world urge us to act. Above all is the need to invest in a rules-based order, one that protects countries sovereignty and territorial integrity, one that offers victims the right to justice and redress.

Ensuring a Faster and Fairer Energy Transition to Combat Climate Change

This year continues the be one of the world's hottest years with a temperature forecast of about 1.1 °C above the average during the pre-industrial period. If we do not change this trajectory, we are on a path that will lead to large-scale and irreversible changes in climate systems. We must act collectively to avoid crossing this threshold and do as much as possible to preserve the ecosystems of our planet, including the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, the warm-water coral reefs, and permafrost. We are currently walking on thin ice, crossing the tipping points in one of these systems could lead to the collapse of the other systems and have severe impacts. Weather events such as heat waves, storms, and droughts are likely to become more frequent, more intense, and widespread. The key to tackling the climate crisis is to end our reliance on energy generated from fossil fuels and to seek carbon–neutral development. The energy transition must be faster and fairer. Managing climate change is also a way to prevent the next pandemic. Limiting deforestation is key, as animals migrate to populated places due to their loss of habitat, they increase the risk of spreading infectious diseases. Big emitters must accelerate emissions reductions and for that fast-tracking the energy transition would be essential. In addition, the COP 28 in the UAE should focus attention to mitigation measures in particular those related to the agricultural sector which impact live of millions around the world.

Pandemics: Recovering from Covid and Preventing the Next Pandemic

Since 2019, Covid has magnified the tensions and flaws of the multilateral health system. The pandemic highlighted the difficulties to cooperate on medical research, access to vaccines, medical supplies, and curbs the spread of the virus. The fight against pandemics requires close coordination at a global level. We failed to prioritise and provide fair and equitable access to vaccination and implement testing and treatment strategies globally. It is time to learn from these mistakes and adjust our systems, by strengthening proactive strategies, we need to prevent global health threats from emerging and spreading and to develop an efficient cooperation-based health system. In 2023, we must work to strengthen global pandemic governance. A new international legal instrument is needed to govern pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. Important steps in this direction were taken last year with the establishment of an intergovernmental negotiating body within the World Health Organisation that is mandated to produce a final draft agreement by May 2024. The principle of “one health” would ensure coherence between policy at the national and supranational levels and provide an integrated response to animal, human, and environmental health issues.

Limiting the Risk of Economic Fragmentation to Ensure Shared Prosperity

The rise in geopolitical tension is driving strategic competition between countries and regions. As a result, despite decades of openness that have fostered economic interdependence, the risk of economic fragmentation is also intensifying. We need to find the right balance between economic openness and greater security, in particular in military technology. Since the end of the Second World War, increasing global integration has been a major force for progress in the global economy. Looking at the economic front, we risk a slow-walking geo-economic fragmentation under the guise of friend-shoring, USA–China technological decoupling, or the disconnection between payment systems. This will lead to growing inflation, fewer economic opportunities—in particular for developing countries—a stifling of innovation, and decreased productivity. The risk is not so much one of de-globalisation but rather a fragmentation of the level playing field as we have started to witness in the technology and services sectors. Fragmentation will lead to higher costs. The World Trade Organisation estimates that dividing the world into two economic and trade zones would reduce global GDP by 5%. The IMF has also warned that a severe fragmentation with the addition of technological decoupling could result in a loss in output of 8–12% in some countries. To avert this damaging fragmentation, the rules-based multilateral trading system must adapt to this changing world with resilience building rather than decoupling, active risk management and clear guardrails to protect national security, in particular regarding technology.

International Governance for Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is now part of everyday life. Whether in terms of communications, learning, work, the fight against climate change, or health care, technology is transforming our economies and societies and challenging what it means to be human. But these technologies are also generating risks and challenges. Disinformation, fake news, inequalities, market concentration, malicious use, repression, and much more are the hidden dangers of artificial intelligence. Take the last iteration of ChatGPT’s language-prediction model, which raised a big question in the education community: learning and creating versus plagiarism. Social networks and the risk of disinformation can also exacerbate political tension and polarisation and weaken legitimacy in democracies. Meanwhile, AI also poses difficult questions is in the security and defence sector with autonomous weapons, massive surveillance, cyberattacks, and digital manipulation. We must urgently work to regulate the use of these technologies both at the national as well as at the international level. We need to collectively find a balance between regulation and freedom seeking to foster the common good and human rights. A new mechanism of data governance cooperation is urgently needed building on accountability, ethics, and transparency. A new multilateral framework transcends competition in favour of cooperation. The adoption by members of UNESCO of a set of voluntary recommendations on the ethics of AI is a good first step. Much more is needed.

Managing Nuclear Risks

Since the first use of nuclear weapons in 1945, nuclear risk has haunted humanity. However, the creation of the United Nations in the same year allowed for the collective management of nuclear risks. By 1958, a proposal signed by around 10,000 individuals was presented to United Nations Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold, calling for an international agreement to ban testing of nuclear weapons. Since then, the prospect of mutually assured destruction has provided a compelling deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, the possibility of an unintented nuclear attack due to misperception and/or misinterpretation of signals remains despite the catastrophic consequences that this would have. Existing and growing tensions between countries such as Pakistan, India, Iran, North Korea, and others remind us of the need to advance nuclear non-proliferation. Recent developments in the Ukraine–Russia war make this an absolute necessity.

Managing Risks Effectively Requires a Reformed Multilateralism

We need to remember what we owe to the multilateral system. It is of course imperfect, but it has provided one of the longest periods of collective prosperity in human history. Since the 1990s, a rules-based open economy has lifted more than 1 billion people out of abject poverty. In addition, there has been tremendous progress in decolonization that brought many new countries to the United Nations, and recognition of minorities and women’s rights. However, it is also clear that the multilateral system requires a serious revamp in several of its dimensions.

Multilateral Actors

The current multilateral system is centred around nations-states: they are the main actors in a system that remains international. However, today nation-states, while being central to governance efforts, are no longer sufficient to ensure effectiveness. Businesses today are essential to global governance. Take the example of climate change. We have seen how even in cases where governments have been unwilling to adopt measures to reduce emissions, businesses have taken upon themselves to build coalitions to contribute to the objectives of the Paris Climate Accord. We have also seen businesses take the lead on adopting sustainability standards. The same can be said about civil society or philanthropists who are also contributing to better governance. Some international organisations and cooperation frameworks have included these actors into their structures or working methods. Take the International Labour Organisation with its tri-partite structure that brings together governments, trade unions, and business organisations. Or the International Standardisation Organisation, an independent non-governmental organisation producing market relevant standards in areas as important as artificial intelligence, food safety or energy. Today the integration of these new actors is essential in other areas such as trade, agriculture, or security. The same can be said of sovereigns like cities and regions who today have a role to play too. Let’s think of the coalition of mayors of large cities under the C40.

A More Horizontal Management of Interdependence

The second issue that must be rethought is how to best manage global interdependence. The current international system is built around vertical silos, for agriculture, for intellectual property, for finance, for trade, or for health, to give just a few examples. However, interdependence requires a more horizontal weaving of all those issues which are more and more inter-related. It was interesting to see this happen at the time of discussion of the Sustainable Development Goals. This method should be generalised. Putting more effort into forecasting can help in this respects which is why the United Nations should devote greater attention and resources at future scanning. At the end of the day anticipating the future can help in getting prepared to better shape it.

A Global Order that Gives Room to Small and Middle Powers

The current state of the world is defined by the confrontation between the USA and China and is straining the multilateral system. Both believe today that the interdependence built over the last few decades needs to be pared back to avoid overdependence. This impacts on the multilateral system as a whole, but especially on other players. At the same time, progress achieved over this period has also empowered middle powers who have “agency” and need to play a more assertive role not only in protecting the system but also in adapting it to the new circumstances.

Twenty years ago, Canada and Norway established the Human Security Network which campaigned to ban anti-personnel mines and push forward the idea of the “responsibility to protect”. Today we are also seeing Chili, Singapore, and New Zealand take the lead to incorporate digital trade in the WTO.

The same can be said of smaller powers who, despite their small size, represent a large number of players and therefore also have the possibility to support the multilateral system to ensure that it also reflects their interests. This is what we have seen in the area of climate negotiations where their insistence on loss and damage has resulted in an agreement to address this issue multilaterally.

Multipolarity today requires middle powers and smaller actors to step up their game to reform the multilateral system.

From Global Deals to Dealing with Global Issues

The idea of grand design and big multilateralism seems difficult in the current circumstances, but greater consensus may be achieved by focusing on specific issues.

For instance, the deal reached at the World Trade Organisation last July took one issue, namely “reducing subsidies to overfishing” and managed to have all their members agree on it. Russia, China, Ukraine, the USA, and the EU all supported a final deal. The international community did the same at the OECD, agreeing on a common deal to tax multinationals.

In recent decades, states have demonstrated successful issue-based cooperation, to cope with the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the risk that it involves. Latin America, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Central Asia ratified nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) treaties through which they commit not to manufacture, acquire, test, or possess nuclear weapons.

Multilateralism allows to have everyone around the table and agreements foster common respect, and empathy necessary for a functional international community and effective crisis resolution. If we are to take the example of climate change, it is necessary to move faster in implementing emissions-reduction measures, but the need for consensus in the global climate process makes this difficult. Yet only multilateral climate negotiations can lead to successful actions. Seeking consensus on specific areas such as methane reduction can contribute to the overall objective. An issue-based approach may be perceived as too modest, but at the same time it offers an avenue to provide concrete results and demonstrate the value of international cooperation.

Multilateralism Built from Plurilateral Deals

Global issues can best be addressed with rules that are applicable to all countries, especially those that are systemic to the issue in question. However, it is also true that many multilateral deals have been built on the basis of a plurilateral effort. Even if it isn’t the best option, multilateral institutions should not reject the possibility of continuing to build governance responses by engaging in plurilateral deals. They may be second best, but they also have the benefit of becoming real.

A Results-Based Multilateralism

Reforming multilateralism also requires paying more attention to measuring results and impact. Whether in the case of normative organisations or those that are more of a deliberative nature, or those that have a development mandate, multilateralism should focus more of tracking the results of its work and not only measuring input. Better measurement would help in demonstrating efficiency and effectiveness which in turn is the essential bedrock of legitimacy.

Conclusion

We are at a turning point in history. Faced with numerous and complex global risks, it is our duty to choose multilateralism, the collective, solidarity, and trust over unilateralism, discord, antagonism, and fear. The UN Secretary-General’s Summit of the Future to be held in 2024 offers a unique opportunity to build an international consensus to better manage our common future. A future based on the rule of law as opposed to the rule of the strongest. A future based on human dignity shared progress and respect for human rights. We should use 2023 to build a common agenda with for a reformed multilateral architecture. This is our best bet for a new global order to manage a more multipolar world.