Abstract
India is the largest economy of South Asia and a rising economy in the world. More than 20% of its bedrock is formed by the agriculture sector which is greatly impacted by the Indian monsoon. It plays a crucial role in the growth of several crops and water resources and decides many natural calamities like floods and droughts that can affect human beings severely. Therefore, the monsoon has been under research fraternity for centuries. With gradually rising temperatures and changing monsoon patterns, India is experiencing anomalies in precipitation occurrences. Intermittent intensified rain can cause engulfed floods, landslides, loss of farmer’s harvests, damaged roads and commuting problems that affect the common man every day. Similarly, many states faced water shortages leading to crop failure, starvation and spread of many diseases. Both excess and scarcity of rainfall can bring famine and result in a bad economy. All these consequences can be prevented if the onset of the monsoon can be estimated before its arrival. Therefore, this study is intended toward understanding the nature of monsoon and classification of methodologies implemented for its early prediction so far. Following an analysis of every model currently in use, it was discovered that deep learning models outperform all other models. However, as the monsoon is a complicated system of atmospheric and oceanic connection, it remains a matter of research to identify the points at which predictability weakens.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Hindustan Times (2023) Why North India is facing unusually heavy rains, explained
Blanford HF (1884) II. On the connexion of the Himalaya snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India. Proceed Royal Soc London 37(232–234):3–22
https://mausamjournal.imd.gov.in/index.php/MAUSAM/article/view/5932
Goswami BB, An SI (2023) An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate. NPJ Clim Atmosph Sci 6(1):82
Asutosh A, Vinoj V, Wang H, Landu K, Yoon JH (2022) Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks. Environ Res 214:113898
Debnath S, Govardhan G, Saha SK, Hazra A, Pohkrel S, Jena C, Ghude SD (2023) Impact of dust aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall on intra- seasonal time-scale. Atm Environ 305:119802
Wiston M, Mphale KM (2018) Weather forecasting: from the early weather wizards to modern-day weather predictions. J Climatol Weather Forecast 6(2):1–9
Risiro J, Mashoko D, Tshuma DT, Rurinda E (2012) Weather forecasting and indigenous knowledge systems in Chimanimani District of Manicaland, Zimbabwe. J Emerg Trends Educ Res Policy Stud 3(4):561–566
Balehegn M, Balehey S, Fu C, Liang W (2019) Indigenous weather and climate forecasting knowledge among Afar pastoralists of north eastern Ethiopia: role in adaptation to weather and climate variability. Pastoralism 9(1):1–14
Palmer TN, Alessandri A, Andersen U, Cantelaube P, Davey M, Delécluse P, Thomson MC (2004) Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(6):853–872
Adcroft A, Hill C, Campin JM, Marshall J, Heimbach P (2004) Overview of the formulation and numerics of the MIT GCM. In: Proceedings of the ECMWF seminar series on numerical methods, recent developments in numerical methods for atmosphere and ocean modelling, pp 139–149
Mellor GL (1998) Users guide for a three dimensional, primitive equation, numerical ocean model program in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Princeton University Princeton, NJ
Pacanowski RC, Dixon K, Rosati A (1993) The GFDL modular ocean model users guide. GFDL Ocean Group Tech Rep 2(46):08542–10308
DelSole T, Shukla J (2002) Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 15(24):3645–3658
Tripathi KC, Agarwal R, Hrisheekesha PN (1997) Global prediction algorithms and predictability of anomalous points in a time series
Liyew CM, Melese HA (2021) Machine learning techniques to predict daily rainfall amount. J Big Data 8:1–11
Tripathi KC, Rai S, Pandey AC, Das IML (2008) Southern Indian Ocean SST indices as early predictors of Indian summer monsoon
Shukla RP, Tripathi KC, Pandey AC, Das IML (2011) Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using Niño indices: a neural network approach. Atmospheric Res 102(1–2):99–109
Abhishek K, Singh MP, Ghosh S, Anand A (2012) Weather forecasting model using artificial neural network. Procedia Technol 4:311–318
Saha M, Chakraborty A, Mitra P (2016) Predictor-year subspace clustering based ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon. Adv Meteorol
Singh BP, Pravendra K, Tripti S, Singh VK (2017) Estimation of monsoon season rainfall and sensitivity analysis using artificial neural networks. Indian J Ecol 44:317–322
Praveen PB, Talukdar S, Shahfahad Mahato, S., Mondal, J., Sharma, P., & Rahman, A. (2020) Analyzing trend and forecasting of rainfall changes in India using non- parametrical and machine learning approaches. Scientific Rep 10(1):10342
Najib F, Mustika IW (2022) Weather forecasting using artificial neural network for rice farming in Delanggu village. In: IOP conference series: earth and environmental science (vol 1030, no 1). IOP Publishing, p 012002
Kumar B, Chattopadhyay R, Singh M, Chaudhari N, Kodari K, Barve A (2021) Deep learning–based downscaling of summer monsoon rainfall data over Indian region. Theoret Appl Climatol 143:1145–1156
Endalie D, Haile G, Taye W (2022) Deep learning model for daily rainfall prediction: case study of Jimma Ethiopia. Water Supply 22(3):3448–3461
Saha S, Kundu B, Saha A, Mukherjee K, Pradhan B (2023) Manifesting deep learning algorithms for developing drought vulnerability index in monsoon climate dominant region of West Bengal India. Theoretic Appl Climatol 151(1–2):891–913
Singh D, Ghosh S, Roxy MK, McDermid S (2019) Indian summer monsoon: extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings. Wiley Interdisciplin Rev Clim Change 10(2):e571
Dash Y, Mishra SK, Panigrahi BK (2019) Predictability assessment of northeast monsoon rainfall in India using sea surface temperature anomaly through statistical and machine learning techniques. Environmetrics 30(4):e2533
Mittal AK, Singh UP, Tiwari A, Dwivedi S, Joshi MK, Tripathi KC (2015) Short-term predictions by statistical methods in regions of varying dynamical error growth in a chaotic system. Meteorol Atmos Phys 127:457–465
Tripathi KC, Mishra P (2019) Empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the regional Indian rainfall. In: Innovations in computer science and engineering: proceedings of the sixth ICICSE 2018. Springer Singapore, pp 127–134
Schultz MG, Betancourt C, Gong B, Kleinert F, Langguth M, Leufen LH, Stadtler S (2021) Can deep learning beat numerical weather prediction? Philosophic Transact Royal Soc A 379(2194):20200097
Zenkner G, Navarro-Martinez S (2023) A flexible and lightweight deep learning weather forecasting model. Appl Intell 53(21):24991–25002
Kumar A, Pai DS, Singh JV, Singh R, Sikka DR (2012) Statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India using step wise regression and neural network
Tabari H, Taye MT, Willems P (2015) Statistical assessment of precipitation trends in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 29:1751–1761
Panda A, Sahu N (2019) Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput districts of Odisha, India. Atmosph Sci Lett 20(10):e932
Ridwan WM, Sapitang M, Aziz A, Kushiar KF, Ahmed AN, El-Shafie A (2021) Rainfall forecasting model using machine learning methods: case study Terengganu Malaysia. Ain Shams Eng J 12(2):1651–1663
Falga R, Wang C (2022) The rise of Indian summer monsoon precipitation extremes and its correlation with long-term changes of climate and anthropogenic factors. Sci Rep 12(1):11985
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Goyal, N., Mahajan, A.N., Tripathi, K.C. (2024). Conception of Indian Monsoon Prediction Methods. In: Sharma, H., Shrivastava, V., Tripathi, A.K., Wang, L. (eds) Communication and Intelligent Systems. ICCIS 2023. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 968. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-2079-8_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-2079-8_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-97-2078-1
Online ISBN: 978-981-97-2079-8
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)