Abstract
This chapter examines to what extent the “debt trap” argument applies to the Philippines. The “debt trap,” which is narrowly defined as China’s acquisition of geostrategic assets using its loans and investments, has been widely discussed. However, works have yet to examine the degree to which the “debt trap” has empirical support across different contexts. Examining Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects during Duterte and Marcos, we argue that the “debt trap” has no empirical backing. Instead, the “debt trap” argument has become a misnomer, a distraction to the broader issues brought about by Chinese development finance and foreign investments in the Philippines. We illustrate this argument through an analysis of international and Filipino writers about China in the Philippines, an examination of the Philippines’ macroeconomic data, and a discussion of the BRI projects during the Duterte and Marcos administrations. We conclude this chapter by proposing three recommendations to China and the Philippines to increase the effectiveness of implementing BRI projects.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Camba (2018).
- 3.
Punongbayan (2018).
- 4.
Ibid.
- 5.
Corr (2017).
- 6.
“How China Lends”, Aid Data, https://www.aiddata.org/how-China-lends.
- 7.
Robredo Warns of China Debt Trap, Cites Sri Lanka|Inquirer News (2017).
- 8.
Robredo: Gov’t Must Be Transparent on China Loans (2019).
- 9.
Total Philippine External Debt by Creditor Type (2022).
- 10.
Official Development Assistance Portfolio Review Report (2021).
- 11.
Total Philippine External Debt by Creditor Type (2022).
- 12.
“Policy Responses to COVID-19”, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#P.
- 13.
“NG Debt Indicator 1986–2021”, Philippines Bureau of the Treasury, https://www.treasury.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/DEBT-INDICATOR-ANNUAL-1986-2021.pdf.
- 14.
Ibid.
- 15.
Ibid.
- 16.
Heydarian (2018).
- 17.
Camba (2019a).
- 18.
Chavez (2019).
- 19.
Garcia (2021).
- 20.
Camba (2021).
- 21.
From Investor to Suppliers to Creditors, Cash-Strapped Dennis Uy Rolls the Dice with China: DITO Racks up P58B in Loans from Chinese Banks-Bilyonaryo Business News (2022).
- 22.
Rey (2021).
- 23.
Clark (2020).
- 24.
Zuasola (2022).
- 25.
Venzon (2022).
- 26.
Camba (2019b).
- 27.
Vera (2022).
- 28.
Crismundo (2023).
- 29.
Garcia (2023).
- 30.
Magramo (2023).
- 31.
PBBM opens door for more PH fruit exports to China (2022).
- 32.
Ibid.
- 33.
Elemia (2022).
- 34.
Ibid.
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Camba, A., Willis, H., Sorber, J., Jiang, R. (2024). “Debt Trap” in the Philippines?. In: Peng, N., Cheng, M.Y. (eds) The Reality and Myth of BRI’s Debt Trap. Indo-Pacific Focus. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-1056-0_7
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