A Comparative Study of COVID-19 Pandemic in Rajasthan, India

Abstract

The treatment of corona virus disease is not possible without any vaccine. However, spreading of the deadly virus can be controlled by various measures being imposed by Government like lockdown, quarantine, isolation, contact tracing, social distancing and putting face mask on mandatory basis. As per information from the Department of Medical Health and Family Welfare of Rajasthan on 19 September 2020, corona virus COVID-19 severely affected the state of Rajasthan, resulting in cumulative positive cases 113,124, cumulative recovered 93,805 and cumulative deaths 1322. Without any appropriate treatment, it may further spread globally as it is highly communicable and because potentially affecting the human body respiratory system, which could be fatal to mankind. Therefore, to reduce the spread of infection, authors are motivated to construct a predictive mathematical model with sustainable conditions as per the ongoing scenario in the state of Rajasthan. Mathematica software has been used for numerical evaluation and graphical representation for variation of infection, recovery, exposed, susceptibles and mortality versus time. Moreover, comparative analysis of results obtained by predictive mathematical model has been done with the exact data plotting by curve fitting as obtained from Rajasthan government website. As a part of analysis and result, it is noted that due to the variation of transmission rate from person to person corresponding rate of infection goes on increasing monthly and mortality rate found high as shown and discussed numerically. Further, we can predict that the situation will become worse in the winter months especially in month of December due to unavailability of proper vaccine. This model may become more efficient when the researchers, experts from medical sciences and technologist work together.

Appendices

Annexure 1

The status of COVID-19 disease in the month of June

Date (June)	Cumulative infected	New infected	Cumulative death	New death	Recovered
1	8831	214	194	1	6032
2	9100	269	199	5	6213
3	9373	273	203	4	6435
4	9652	279	209	6	6744
5	9862	210	213	4	7104
6	10,084	222	218	5	7359
7	10,337	253	231	13	7501
8	10,599	262	240	9	7754
9	10,876	277	246	6	8117
10	11,245	369	255	9	8328
11	11,600	355	259	4	8569
12	11,838	238	265	6	8775
13	12,068	230	272	7	9011
14	12,401	333	282	10	9337
15	12,694	293	292	10	9566
16	12,981	287	301	9	9785
17	13,216	235	308	7	9962
18	13,542	326	313	5	10,467
19	13,857	315	330	17	10,742
20	14,156	299	333	3	10,997
21	14,555	399	337	4	11,274
22	14,930	393	349	12	11,597
23	15,232	302	356	7	11,910
24	15,627	395	365	9	12,213
25	16,009	382	375	10	12,611
26	16,296	287	379	4	12,840
27	16,660	364	380	1	13,062
28	16,944	284	391	11	13,367
29	17,271	327	399	8	13,611
30	17,660	389	405	6	13,921

1. Source [13]

Annexure 2

The status of COVID-19 disease in the Month of July

Date (July)	Cumulative infected	New infected	Cumulative death	New death	Recovered
1	18,014	354	413	8	14,220
2	18,312	298	421	8	14,574
3	18,662	350	430	9	14,948
4	19,052	390	440	10	15,281
5	19,532	480	447	7	15,640
6	20,164	632	456	9	15,928
7	20,688	524	461	5	16,278
8	21,404	716	472	11	16,575
9	22,063	659	482	10	16,866
10	22,563	500	491	9	17,070
11	23,174	611	497	6	17,620
12	23,748	574	503	6	17,869
13	24,392	644	510	7	18,103
14	24,936	544	518	8	18,630
15	25,571	635	524	6	19,169
16	26,437	866	530	6	19,502
17	27,174	737	538	8	19,970
18	27,789	615	546	8	20,626
19	28,500	711	553	7	21,144
20	29,434	934	559	6	21,730
21	30,390	956	568	9	22,195
22	31,373	983	577	9	22,744
23	32,334	961	583	6	23,364
24	33,220	886	594	11	23,815
25	34,178	958	602	8	24,547
26	53,298	1120	613	11	25,306
27	36,430	1132	624	11	25,954
28	37,564	1134	633	9	26,834
29	38,636	1072	644	11	27,317
30	39,780	1144	654	10	28,309
31	40,936	1156	667	13	29,231

1. Source [13]

Annexure 3

The status of COVID-19 disease in the month of August

Date (August)	Cumulative infected	New infected	Cumulative death	New death	Recovered
1	42,083	1147	680	13	29,845
2	43,243	1160	694	14	30,668
3	44,410	1167	706	12	31,216
4	45,555	1145	719	13	32,051
5	46,679	1124	732	13	32,832
6	47,845	1166	745	13	33,849
7	48,996	1151	757	12	35,131
8	50,157	1161	767	10	36,195
9	51,328	1171	778	11	37,163
10	52,497	1169	789	11	38,235
11	53,670	1173	800	11	39,060
12	54,887	1217	811	11	40,399
13	56,100	1213	822	11	41,648
14	57,414	1264	833	11	41,819
15	58,692	1278	846	13	43,897
17	61,296	1317	876	14	46,604
18	62,630	1334	887	11	47,654
19	63,977	1347	898	11	48,960
20	65,289	1312	910	12	49,963
21	66,619	1330	921	11	51,190
22	67,954	1335	933	12	52,496
23	69,264	1310	944	11	54,144
24	70,609	1345	955	11	55,324
25	71,955	1346	967	12	56,600
26	73,325	1370	980	13	58,126
27	74,670	1345	992	12	59,579
28	76,015	1345	1005	13	60,585
29	77,370	1355	1017	12	62,033
30	78,777	1407	1030	13	62,971
31	80,227	1450	1043	13	65,093

1. Source [13]

Annexure 4

The status of COVID-19 disease up to 19 September 2020

Date (September)	Cumulative infected	New infected	Cumulative death	New death	Recovered
1	83,163	1470	1069	13	68,124
2	84,674	1511	1081	12	70,674
3	86,227	1553	1095	14	71,220
4	87,797	1570	1108	13	71,899
5	89,363	1566	1122	14	73,245
6	90,956	1593	1137	15	74,861
7	92,536	1580	1151	14	76,427
8	94,126	1590	1164	13	77,872
9	95,736	1610	1178	14	79,450
10	97,376	1640	1192	14	80,482
11	99,036	1660	1207	15	81,970
12	100,705	1669	1221	14	82,902
13	102,408	1703	1236	15	84,518
14	104,138	1730	1250	14	86,162
15	105,898	1760	1264	14	87,873
16	107,680	1782	1279	15	89,352
17	109,473	1793	1293	14	90,685
18	111,290	1817	1308	15	92,265
19	113,124	1834	1322	14	93,805

1. Source [14]