Abstract
Air traffic demand and distribution fluctuates in long-, medium-, and short-term perspective. In order to ensure safe and efficient flight operations, air navigation service providers need to ensure that enough capacity is available for airspace users. For this purpose, reliable traffic forecasts are necessary to avoid capacity shortages or excesses and subsequently costs. However, the provision of air navigation services is hampered by several effects, i.e., unpredictable traffic patterns and trends. Despite awareness of such problem, there is not a common definition or metric yet to measure the so-called ‘volatility.’ The aim of this paper is twofold: to set out an approach addressing volatility measures for different spatial and periodical scopes, and to show the effects of demand fluctuations on the ATM system from a holistic point of view.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Marta Olazabal who supported the FCM progress, Ibon Galarraga and Prof. Alberto Ansuategi for methodological input regarding volatility metrics, and Prof. Hartmut Fricke for his profound ATM expertise.
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Standfuss, T., Whittome, M., Ruiz-Gauna, I. (2021). Volatility in Air Traffic Management—How Changes in Traffic Patterns Affect Efficiency in Service Provision. In: Electronic Navigation Research Institute (eds) Air Traffic Management and Systems IV. EIWAC 2019. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 731. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4669-7_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4669-7_2
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