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The Kazakh Model? Dynamics of Regime Succession in Eurasia

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Understanding Kazakhstan’s 2019 Political Transition

Part of the book series: The Steppe and Beyond: Studies on Central Asia ((SBSCA))

Abstract

Following the retirement of Nursultan Nazarbayev in March 2019 and the development of dual rule in Kazakhstan, some analysts speculated that this succession arrangement may become a model for other regimes, including Russia. This chapter examines the differing dynamics of succession across post-Soviet Eurasia and outcomes these have produced. Based on a comparative analysis of these successions, I argue that three conditions dictate a smooth transition of power. First, a clearly designated new leader at the moment when the death or resignation of the incumbent is officially announced. Such an individual can be picked by the incumbent, or by the selectorate, key decision-making elites, after their death. Second, there needs to be a lack of viable opponents to the new ruler from within the elite and from the public. Third, there needs to be a narrow circle of elite powerbrokers with a common interest in maintaining stability and the current system of patronage.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Established by presidential decree in 2000, the Council is made up of the leaders (governors and presidents) of Russia’s Federal Subjects. The body is chaired by the president and meets four times a year.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, Washington, DC, USA

    Edward Lemon

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Correspondence to Edward Lemon .

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  1. Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan

    Jean-François Caron

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Lemon, E. (2021). The Kazakh Model? Dynamics of Regime Succession in Eurasia. In: Caron, JF. (eds) Understanding Kazakhstan’s 2019 Political Transition. The Steppe and Beyond: Studies on Central Asia. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4308-5_4

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