Skip to main content

Foresight and Strategic Thinking Enabling Valuable Strategy

  • Chapter
  • 886 Accesses

Part of the book series: Management for Professionals ((MANAGPROF))

Abstract

Contrary to the common belief that foresight and strategic thinking are similar or even the same, it is increasingly acknowledged that they are distinctly different concepts. It is suggested that by being able to differentiate foresight and strategic thinking as academically recognized preconditions for effective strategy, and identify what the important dimensions of these forms of thinking are, we are able to predict more accurately what inputs into strategy lead to success.

Although much has been written about foresight and strategic thinking, and their link to strategic leadership, there is a lack of empirical research related to these concepts and how they interact in making strategy.

Foresight is an innate human cognitive ability. The way in which foresight is used by leaders differs according to context and their dominant predispositions. Styles of foresight, not mutually exclusive, are adopted by humans whenever they are required to engage the future.

Strategic thinking is a task. It is a cognitive function that necessarily precedes strategy formulation. Its purpose is to develop organizationally useful direction and proposed actions based on the intention to achieve a desired viable future (short, medium or long-term).

The definitions and application of foresight and strategic thinking are conceptualised. The similarities and differences between the two concepts are investigated and presented. The concept of strategic foresight is also discussed in relation to the distinct concepts of foresight and strategic thinking.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Ahuja G, Coff R, Lee P (2005) Managerial foresight and attempted rent appropriation: insider trading on knowledge of imminent breakthroughs. Strateg Manag J 26(9):791–808

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allio RJ (2006) Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas. Strateg Leadersh 34(4):4–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alsan A (2008) Corporate foresight in emerging markets: action research at a multinational company in Turkey. Futures 40(1):47–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amsteus M (2008) Managerial foresight: concept and measurement. Foresight 10(1):53–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Atance CM, O’Neill DK (2001) Episodic future thinking. Trends Cogn Sci 5(12):533–539

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Attila H (2003) Evolving foresight in a small transition economy. J Forecast 22(2):179–201

    Google Scholar 

  • Beer M, Eisenstat RA (2000) The silent killers of strategy implementation and learning. Sloan Manage Rev 41(4):29–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Blind K, Cuhls K, Grupp H (1999) Current foresight activities in Central Europe. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 60(1):15–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonn I (2001) Developing strategic thinking as a core competence. Manag Decis 39(1):63–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boyatsis RE, Saatcioglu A (2008) A 20-year view of trying to develop emotional, social and cognitive intelligence competencies in graduate management education. J Manag Dev 27(1):92–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boyatzis RE (2008) Competencies in the 21st century. J Manag Dev 27(1):5–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brønn PS, Olson EL (1999) Mapping the strategic thinking of public relations managers in a crisis situation: an illustrative example using conjoint analysis. Public Relat Rev 25(3):351–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buchen IH (2005) The futures agenda of the future CEO. Foresight 7(2):3–7

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Chermack TJ (2004) Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 36(3):295–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chia R (2004) Re-educating attention: what is foresight and how is it cultivated. In: Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (eds) Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, pp 21–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Coates JF (1985) Foresight in federal government policymaking. Futur Res Q 1(Summer):29–53

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Costanzo LA, MacKay RB (2009) Handbook of research on strategy and foresight, 1st edn. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, p 548

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cragg R, Spurgeon P (2007) Competencies of a good leader. Clin Manag 15(3/4):109–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Cuhls K (2003) From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. J Forecast 22(2‐3):93–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Day G, Schoemaker P (2008) Are you a vigilant leader? Sloan Management Review, Spring, pp 43–51

    Google Scholar 

  • de Geus A (1997) The living company. Harv Bus Rev 75(2):51–59

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson PR, Farris PW, Verbeke WJ (2001) Dynamic strategic thinking. J Acad Mark Sci 29(3):216–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuller T, Argyle P, Moran P (2004) Meta-rules for entrepeneurial foresight. In: Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (eds) Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, pp 169–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Gary JE (2008) Evaluation of the dian scales as a foresight measure, in school of global leadership and entrepeneurship. Regent University, Virginia Beach, p 118

    Google Scholar 

  • Godet M (2001) Creating futures: scenario planning as a strategic management too. Economica, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldman EF (2007) Strategic thinking at the top. Sloan Manage Rev 48(Summer):75–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Hambrick DC (2007) Upper echelons theory: an update. Acad Manage Rev 32(2):334–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamel G (2009) Moon shots for management. Harv Bus Rev 87(2):91–98

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hamel G, Prahalad CK (1994) Competing for the future. Harv Bus Rev 72(4):122

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamel G, Prahalad CK (2005) Strategic intent. Harv Bus Rev 83(7):148–161

    Google Scholar 

  • Handy C (1995) Trust and the virtual organization. Harv Bus Rev 73((3):40–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayward P (ed) (2003) Foresight in everyday life. Slaughter RA (ed) Monograph series. Australian Foresight Institute, Swinburne University, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayward P (2005) From individual to social foresight, in faculty of business and enterprise. Swinburne University, Melbourne, p 327

    Google Scholar 

  • Heracleous L (1998) Strategic thinking or strategic planning? Long Range Plann 31(3):481–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Héraud J-A, Cuhls K (1999) Current foresight activities in France, Spain, and Italy. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 60(1):55–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horton A (1999) A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight 1(1):5–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanter RM (1995) World class: thriving locally in the global economy. Simon and Schuster, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Kouzes J, Posner B (2002) The leadership challenge. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuwahara T (1999) Technology forecasting activities in Japan. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 60(1):5–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leonard NH, Scholl RW, Kowalski KB (1999) Information processing style and decision making. J Organ Behav 20:407–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liedtka JM (1998) Strategic thinking: can it be taught? Long Range Plann 31(1):120–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Major E, Asch D, Cordey-Hayes M (2002) Foresight as a core-competence. In: Slaughter RA, Inayatullah S, Ramos JM (eds) Knowledge base of futures studies. Foresight International, Indoorpilly, p 18

    Google Scholar 

  • Major E, Asch D, Cordey-Hayes M (2005) Foresight as a core-competence. In: Slaughter RA, Inayatullah S, Ramos JM (eds) Knowledge base of futures studies. Foresight International, Indoorpilly, p 18

    Google Scholar 

  • Malan R (2010) The role of shared mental models of strategic thinking in the development of organisational strategy. University of Southern Queensland, Queensland

    Google Scholar 

  • Markides CC (1999) In search of strategy. Sloan Manage Rev 40(3):6–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin BR, Johnston R (1999) Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 60(1):37–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mintzberg H (1994) The rise and fall of strategic planning: reconceiving roles for planning, plans, planners. Free Press/Maxwell Macmillan, New York/Canada

    Google Scholar 

  • Mintzberg H (2004) Managers, not MBA’s: a hard look at the soft practice of managing and management development. Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco, p 464

    Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery CA (2008) Putting leadership back into strategy. Harv Bus Rev 86(1):54–60

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • O’Shannassy T (2005) Making sense of strategic thinking literature to help build a new model of this mysterious construct. ANZAM, Rockhampton

    Google Scholar 

  • Raimond P (1996) Two styles of foresight: are we predicting the future or inventing it? Long Range Plann 29(2):208–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reid DM, Zyglidopoulos SC (2004) Causes and consequences of the lack of strategic foresight in the decisions of multinational enterprises to enter China. Futures 36(2):237–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez R (2004) Understanding competence-based management: identifying and managing five modes of competence. J Bus Res 57(5):518–532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez R, Heene A (2004) The new strategic management. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharot T, Riccardi AM, Raio CM, Phelps EA (2007) Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature 450(7166):102–105

    Article  CAS  PubMed  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Slaughter RA (1998) Futures studies as an intellectual and applied discipline. Am Behav Sci 42(3):372–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slaughter RA (1999) Futures for the third millenium enabling the forward view. Prospect, St Leonards, x, 381

    Google Scholar 

  • Slaughter RA (2007) Why is the future still a ‘missing dimension’? Futures 39(6):747–754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stacey R (1992) Managing the unknowable. Jossey Bass, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Suddendorf T, Addis DR, Corballis MC (2009) Mental time travel and the shaping of the human mind. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 364(1521):1317–1324

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tavakoli I, Lawton J (2005) Strategic thinking and knowledge management, in handbook of business strategy. Emerald Publishing, Bradford

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (2004a) Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, p 226. xiv

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (2004b) Coping with the future: developing organizational foresightfulness. Futures 36(2):137–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van der Laan L (2010) Foresight competence and the strategic thinking of strategy-level leaders. Doctoral dissertation, University of Southern Queensland. http://www.eprints.usq.edu.au

  • Voros J (2003) A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 5(3):10–21

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Whittington R (2004) Strategy after modernism: recovering practice. Eur Manag Rev 1(1):62–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yukl GA (2006) Leadership in organizations, 6th edn. Pearson/Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, p 542

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Singapore

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

van der Laan, L., Yap, J. (2016). Foresight and Strategic Thinking Enabling Valuable Strategy. In: Foresight & Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region. Management for Professionals. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-597-6_5

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics