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Population and Economic Development

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An Essay on China’s Development After the Demographic Golden Age

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Abstract

Presently, the “disappearance” of demographic dividend is often cited as the main evidence for China’s economy stepping into a new normal phase that faces further downward pressure. In fact, as the age structure of population enters the post-demographic golden age, demographic dividend is in constant decline instead of disappearance. It has brought both challenges and opportunities to China’s economic development. In terms of challenges, it is impossible for China to maintain a fast economic growth and a new normal of medium–high economic growth is an irresistible trend. As for opportunities, the demographic dividends brought by the post-demographic golden age will persist until the year of 2030. Therefore, we should make full use of the remaining 15 years by striving unswervingly to adjust the development model, optimizing the economic structure, and accelerating economic transformation and upgrading.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See Tian Xueyuan, “Taking Advantage of Changes in Age Structure to Promote Modernization”, China Daily, June 5, 1983.

  2. 2.

    Tian Xueyuan, et al. (2007).

  3. 3.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 66; “2016 Semiannual Report of China Statistics Press”, Xinhua Net, July 15, 2016.

  4. 4.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 83.

  5. 5.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 62, 307.

  6. 6.

    See China Statistics Yearbook in relevant years; Wang Zhiping, “Release of Gini Coefficient: Satisfying Progress”, Wenhui Daily, January 21, 2013; “Statistics of China’s Gini Coefficient from 1981 to 2014”, Baidu Library, 2015.

  7. 7.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 4–5.

  8. 8.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 6, 7, 461.

  9. 9.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 6, 7, 362.

  10. 10.

    See Globalization (2015), (2), 123–130.

  11. 11.

    Calculated based on the data in China Statistical Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2014, 4, 5, 12.

  12. 12.

    See Footnote 7.

  13. 13.

    Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform (2013).

  14. 14.

    United Nations (2009).

  15. 15.

    See Footnote 14.

  16. 16.

    Tian Xueyuan (2013).

  17. 17.

    Tian Xueyuan, et al. (2007).

  18. 18.

    United Nations (2009).

  19. 19.

    For the statistics of 2012, please refer to Major Indicators of the World Economy compiled by the Center for International Statistical Information, the National Bureau of Statistics and Globalization, 2015, (2), 123. For other statistics, please refer to Globalization, 2015, (6), 123.

  20. 20.

    Data calculated on the basis of the United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision, New York, 2009, 50, 236, 292, 484.

  21. 21.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 77.

  22. 22.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2014, 83.

  23. 23.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2014, 68.

  24. 24.

    Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2015 National Economic and Social Development compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics.

  25. 25.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2014, 4, 5, 158.

  26. 26.

    Calculated on the basis of statistics on pp. 4-5 of China Statistics Yearbook 2014. The statistics comes from the statistical communique released by the National Statistics Bureau on February 16, 2015. One item is national income, which is also the GDP.

  27. 27.

    “The middle class is the most enthusiastic when debating over Gini coefficient”, Global Times, January 21, 2014.

  28. 28.

    Calculated on the basis of China Statistical Yearbook 2014, 161, 167.

  29. 29.

    See Wang Zhiping, “Release of Gini Coefficient: Satisfying Progress”, Wenhui Daily, January 21, 2013; “Statistics of China’s Gini Coefficient from 1981 to 2014”, Baidu Library, 2015.

  30. 30.

    United Nations, World Population Prospects 1988, Population Studies, No.106. New York, 1989, 200, 204; China Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2015, 25; National Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2014, China Statistics Press, 2015.

  31. 31.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 510.

  32. 32.

    China Statistics Yearbook 2015, China Statistics Press, 2015, 847.

  33. 33.

    Globalization (2015), (2), 123-130. Data of 2014 and 2015 are forecasts.

  34. 34.

    People’s Daily (May 6, 2015); Economic Information Daily (April 30, 2015).

  35. 35.

    China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistics Press, 2014, 73.

  36. 36.

    See Economic Review Weekly of Guangming Daily, April 16, 2015.

  37. 37.

    Calculated based on 26-27 of China Statistical Yearbook 2006, 4-5 of China Statistical Yearbook 2011, and 4-5 of China Statistical Yearbook 2014.

  38. 38.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2014, China Statistics Press, 2014, 6-7.

  39. 39.

    China Statistical Yearbook 2011, China Statistics Press, 2011, 94.

  40. 40.

    Tian Xueyuan, et al. (2007).

  41. 41.

    Calculation based on the data on 4, 5, 12 of China Statistical Yearbook 2014.

  42. 42.

    Zhang Yi, “Seven Percent: Steady Start and New Impetus”, Guangming Daily, April 16, 2015.

  43. 43.

    For the base data of 2014, please refer to “Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development”, the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.

  44. 44.

    “GDP increased by 7% in the first quarter of 2015 according to the National Statistics Bureau”, People’s Daily Online, April 15, 2015. http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2015/0415/c1001-26848788.html

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  1. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xueyuan Tian

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Tian, X. (2023). Population and Economic Development. In: An Essay on China’s Development After the Demographic Golden Age. Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9064-9_3

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