Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former permanent representative to the United Nations, is a distinguished fellow of the Institute of Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. He is also the author of the book Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy.

A photograph of Kishore Mahbubani.

Kishore Mahbubani

While grounded in Asian traditions and culture, Kishore Mahbubani worked in Washington and New York for more than a decade, and is equally familiar with Western culture and politics. He holds that there can be a win–win outcome in the U.S.-China relationship; their different historical experiences do not preclude mutual understanding. The rise or rejuvenation of China is not a threat to the West; instead, by strengthening the existing global frameworks and multilateral institutions, the two sides can arrive at a common set of values to deal with global challenges.

CNS: Has China Won? is a very provocative title. Is there a need for a winner in the U.S.-China relationship?

Kishore Mahbubani: The goal of the provocative title is to persuade people to read the book. When they read the book, they will find that I do not argue that there should be a winner in the U.S.-China relationship. Instead, I argue that there can be a win–win outcome in the relationship. As a friend of both China and the U.S., I am trying to encourage better mutual understanding between the two countries and also prevent a worst-case scenario in their relations.

CNS: When China and the U.S. look at each other from across the ocean, they seem to have different understandings of and disagree with each other. What are the reasons for this? Is there a fundamental lack of empathy between the two sides?

Kishore Mahbubani: The lack of mutual understanding between the U.S. and China is understandable. Their different historical experiences over the past 200 years have conditioned their different perspectives. The U.S. has been exceptionally successful over the past 150 years. By contrast, China experienced a “century of humiliation” from roughly 1842 to 1949, when it was dominated by Western powers. Hence, China has been very focused on achieving its goal of “the great rejuvenation.” With these historical experiences, the U.S. is deeply troubled by the prospect, given that it might become the No.2 economy in the world in the next 10 to 20 years. Hence, many Americans believe the U.S. should try to stop China’s rise. By contrast, China’s main goal is to overcome the “century of humiliation,” improve the living standards of its people, and ensure that it is treated with respect by the rest of the world.

In theory, these different historical experiences shouldn’t have prevented mutual understanding between the U.S. and China. However, in practice, there has been massive misunderstanding, as I documented in my book. One example of major misunderstanding of China in the U.S. is demonstrated in the American belief that the Chinese are unhappy with their current condition.

As American psychologist Jean Fan wrote in 2019, “China is changing in a deep and visceral way, and it is changing fast, in a way that is almost incomprehensible without seeing it in person. In contrast to America’s stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept, and morale are being transformed at a rapid pace – mostly for the better.”

CNS: You have said that major geopolitical competition between China and the U.S. is “inevitable and avoidable” in the future. Isn’t that a contradiction?

Kishore Mahbubani: The geopolitical competition between China and the U.S. is inevitable because it is driven by deep structural forces. For most of the past 2,000 years, the two largest economies were China and India. Only in the last 200 years did Europe, followed by America, surpass them and come to dominate world history. The return of China and India is simply bringing this aberration to an end, but the United States is refusing to accept this reality.

It is also avoidable because the U.S. and China share an interest in global issues. The recent major global challenges, like COVID-19 and climate change, have shown that humanity has a shared future. The U.S. and China can work together to manage these issues. They also have a shared interest in promoting the well-being of their people. For example, after years of wasting trillions on unnecessary wars in the Middle East, the U.S. has a great need to improve its domestic infrastructure. China has the financial and institutional capacity to build such infrastructure. Since China has emerged as an infrastructure superpower, it would be in the mutual interest of both to cooperate on infrastructure construction.

CNS: President Joe Biden says the U.S. “does not seek a new Cold War” but even the Western media are skeptical about this. How do you evaluate the statement? Will there be a new Cold War between China and the U.S.?

Kishore Mahbubani: It was a very positive development for President Biden to say that the U.S. does not seek a new Cold War with China. Nonetheless, many thoughtful observers of the U.S. have pointed out that the Biden administration has not reversed many of the negative policies of the Trump administration. Fareed Zakaria of the Washington Post says that “Biden’s foreign policy is a faithful continuation of Donald Trump’s and a repudiation of Barack Obama’s.” Edward Luce of the Financial Times has pointed out that “There is little of substance on China to distinguish Biden from Trump.” It would therefore be a positive development for the Biden administration to lift some of the negative measures of the Trump administration.

CNS: Some Western politicians and think tanks often make black-or-white judgments based on cultural biases. For example, they see the “rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation as the rise of a new empire, and the Chinese wisdom that “the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate two great powers” as rivalry with the U.S. Is the Chinese civilization a threat to the Western civilization?

Kishore Mahbubani: The rise or rejuvenation of the Chinese civilization is not a threat to the Western civilization. China believes in a multi-civilization world, in which the Chinese civilization is one part, the Western civilization another, along with other civilizations. China does not believe in the concept of a “clash of civilizations.” Rather, it believes in a dialogue of civilizations, including learning from and absorbing aspects of the Western civilization.

Many Americans believe that the Chinese civilization, like the Western civilization, is inherently militaristic and will desire to conquer and subjugate other territories as it becomes more powerful. This is another misunderstanding. In my book, I mention in the chapter “Is China Expansionist?” that it is a marvel that in the long history of the Chinese civilization, it did not conquer geographically close territories. This was even when China had a strong and powerful navy.

At the start of the fifteenth century, nearly 100 years before Christopher Columbus tried to find a route to the so-called Spice Islands, China sent out seven naval expeditions under the remarkable leadership of Admiral Zheng He, a legendary Chinese figure. He traveled as far as Africa on ships that were far larger than the Portuguese or Spanish vessels. But remarkably, he did not conquer or occupy any overseas or distant territories. This reflects the great wisdom of ancient Chinese thinkers like Sun Tzu, who said, “To win 100 victories is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”

CNS: The COVID-19 pandemic, ecological crises, and the polarization between the rich and the poor are testing the resilience of all civilizations. How can we establish a common set of values to deal with these global challenges?

Kishore Mahbubani: In the past, when the 7.8 billion people of the world lived in almost 200 separate countries, it was as though they were living on almost 200 separate boats. Now, the world has shrunk. The 7.8 billion people live in almost 200 separate cabins on the same boat. If one cabin of the boat catches fire, it impacts the entire boat. COVID-19 and climate change have demonstrated this concept well. The pandemic could not be restricted to one country or region. It became a global medical emergency in a matter of months.

Similarly, the solutions to COVID-19 and other pandemics in the future, as well as climate change, also cannot be restricted to individual countries. The solutions to global challenges must be global. To arrive at such solutions, we need to strengthen global multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization. By strengthening the existing global frameworks and multilateral institutions, we can arrive at a common set of values to deal with these global challenges.

(Interviewed by Wang Enbo)