John Hamre, a former deputy U.S. defense secretary, is the CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank based in Washington, D.C.

A photo presents the front profile of John Hamre.

John Hamre

John Hamre talks to Wang Huiyao, President of the Center for China and Globalization, on the major changes in American foreign policy since President Joe Biden took office and their impact on Sino-U.S. relations. Hamre thinks the two main American parties are not focusing on the real problems the country is going to face in the next 10 to 15 years, and the U.S. may enter another 20-year period of political restructuring. As for Sino-U.S. relations, the U.S. should focus on addressing the problems in its own society.

Wang Huiyao: When the U.S. troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2021, President Joe Biden said the U.S. did not go to Afghanistan for “nation building.” What do you think of that?

John Hamre: I think President Biden was reflecting what the American public feels, which is that we were in Afghanistan but we didn’t have a strategy; we were not successful. We shouldn’t have got involved in a situation where we didn’t know what we were doing. I think that was basically the thought behind that statement. But does it mean that America is going to pull back from working with other countries to build stronger institutions? No, I don’t think it means that we’ll abandon that. But I do think it means that Americans feel that we used the military too excessively, and we didn’t really have a plan, and we were not successful.

So I think a foreign policy that is more focused on solid economics, on social development and on traditional diplomacy is what he was talking about. The term “nation building” in the sense that “We are going to shape the world so that it looks like us”—I think that is over. I don’t think we’re doing that any longer.

Wang Huiyao: Even though Donald Trump is not in office, Trumpism is still thriving. So how do you assess the political future of the U.S.?

John Hamre: America had two periods in its history when there were profound changes in our political system. One was from about 1842 to 1860, and that ended in a civil war, which was a bad thing.

The other big period, when politics got turned upside down, was from about 1885 to 1915. In both cases, it lasted over 20 years. And I’m afraid we’re in probably another 20-year period where our politics is going to go through profound restructuring. And I have my own personal views about it. I don’t think either political party here is effectively focusing on the challenges we’re going to face over the next 10 years or 15 years. I think both the parties are battling over their past policies, rather than looking forward to the future.

So I think we’re going to be internally divided. I think there’s still going to be a lot of progressive work, but it’s going to happen more at the state level. I think the economic disparity is very real and is going to be the greatest thing we’re going to have to work on. I would say that’s the big debate that we have right now between the Democrats and the Republicans. But I don’t know if what’s going to come out of it is going to be a breakthrough. I think we’re going to have internal tension in the United States, probably for the next 15 years.

Wang Huiyao: If the U.S. joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade deal, which it had abandoned in 2017 (when it was known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership), will it be a new platform to talk about 21st-century trade issues?

John Hamre: I thought it was a major mistake on the part of President Trump to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

I wish that the Biden administration would join the CPTPP, but I don’t know whether they’re going to. If they don’t, that’s a mistake, in my view. We should be leaning forward. One of the few really good ways to deal with that is to expand and open up wider on trade opportunities. I don’t know whether the Biden administration is going to see it that way, unfortunately, but I do think that there is a larger restructuring underway now.

It started before the COVID-19 pandemic, but instead of globalization we’re starting to regionalize trade patterns. I’m worried because of the tension between China and the United States.

The sentiments in Washington are very negative about China right now. And I think that’s very unfortunate because it makes it hard for us to develop real ideas and real policies in a constructive way. But we’re two great countries with global interests. We’re going to have areas where we’re going to disagree with each other. We’re going to rub up against each other. Sometimes we’re in tension. We have to find ways where we don’t let the tension overwhelm us and prevent us from having constructive conversation to work through the problems.

In the U.S., I’ll say in Washington, there are basically two camps. One camp believes that China is racing ahead. It’s going to be dangerous. We’d better stop it any way we can. That’s one camp. I’m in the second camp, which believes that this is a huge, unprecedented competition. We’re out of shape. It’s like a runner who hasn’t been exercising. We’re going to have to get in shape if we’re going to stay in this competition. So instead of trying to trap China because it’s running ahead of us, we need to work harder to run faster.

I believe that America’s focus ought to be on improving ourselves, fixing our own problems, overcoming the problems within our own society. This is where I think we should be focusing rather than opposing China in everything it says or does. That’s going to go nowhere. So I’m in the camp that says that if Americans are going to compete effectively, we’ve got to get stronger internally.

Wang Huiyao: What do you think about Track 1.5 or Track 2 dialogues, like between think tanks, to bring the China-U.S. relationship into better understanding and better communication?

John Hamre: I think over the next 10 years, Track 1.5, Track 2 dialogues are going to be more important than in any time in our history. It’s hard for the governments to meet each other because the politicians are so busy throwing rocks at the other side. We can at least meet and talk to each other as professionals and as friends. It doesn’t mean we’re always going to agree, but it means we can have an honest conversation with each other.

And then we’re going to be in a better position when we have real hard issues that we have to share with each other. We’re big countries, that’s unavoidable, but we do have to have a framework where we can talk to each other.

I feel we’re in a period of time where we’re going to have to be honest with each other about where we disagree, but we have to have a framework where we’re talking to each other, where we can understand each other. And I think that’s what Track 1.5 is going to be, especially over the next 10, 15 years.

(Reported by Zeng Nai and Wang Enbo)