Sino-Japanese Relations: Drivers and Obstacles in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision

Abstract

Sino-Japanese relations have developed primarily by separating political and economic relations (Seikei bunri). This bifurcation has become more tenuous in the post-Cold War period as China’s comprehensive power increased. Xi Jinping’s ascension to the position of the Secretary General of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012 and his more assertive policies in the region has further complicated the traditional Sino-Japanese formula for pragmatic, forward-looking relations. To balance the benefits from strong bilateral economic relations with China and growing concerns about an illiberal Pax-Sinica emerging in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan has crafted the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)Vision. This chapter explores Sino-Japanese relations through the prism of FOIP. Key lines of enquiry include: (1) How have Sino-Japanese relations affected the design and implementation of FOIP; (2) How does FOIP reflect Japan’s long-standing hedging approach to China; and (3) Does FOIP represent a critical juncture in the Seikei Bunrei formula for bilateral relations. Findings suggest that FOIP remains both an inclusive and exclusive framework to shape the Indo-Pacific region’s rules-based order in-line with the post-WW 2 international order. It leaves windows of opportunity to deepen Sino-Japanese relations while contributing to robust, multilateral institution building to anchor the US in the region and constrain China’s efforts to reshape the region with Chinese characteristics.