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Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality

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China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022)

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Abstract

Automobile, transportation and energy constitute a carbon chain in which they are mutually supported and constrained. Traffic demand will affect the vehicle population and energy consumption in the transport sector and thereafter affect the carbon emissions, while the structure and level of the final energy consumption of vehicles will in turn affect the carbon emissions in the energy and transport sectors. Green energy application determines the carbon emissions of vehicle manufacturing at the upstream and also the carbon emissions of the road transport sector. The realization of carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry is not possible with a single emission reduction path only, and we need to fully explore the emission reduction potential and coupling effects of various paths.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    a Application of Aluminum Alloy Composites in Automotive Lightweight. Zhu Zegang. Light Metals [2011]. No. 10 Issue).

  2. 2.

    a According to Ricardo Energy & Environment, in 2020 a gasoline combustion engine emits an average of 269 g of CO2 per vehicle kilometre in the EU, while a BEV emits only 120 g of CO2 per vehicle kilometre (45%). By 2030, this figure drops to only 239 g/km for internal combustion vehicles, but to 67 g/km (28%) for BEVs.

  3. 3.

    b 6,1 tons CO2 per ICE versus 13,9 tons per BEV (66%) according to Ricardo Energy & Environment (2020).

  4. 4.

    c 6,4 tons CO2 per ICE versus 11,2 tons per BEV (75%) according to International Transport Forum (2020).

  5. 5.

    d 6,7–6,9 tons CO2 per ICE versus 12,4 tons per BEV (79%) according to Agora Verkehrswende (2019).

  6. 6.

    a Closing the materials loop through high quality recycling, optimising vehicle design in accordance with circular principles to increase performance, operational life and end-of-life residual value (through reuse/remanufacturing of components); and enabling circular business models that decouple resource consumption from revenue generation and put vehicles into more productive use (esp. ride- / car-pooling, see 4.1.7 Path 7).

  7. 7.

    b Dematerialisation refers to a reduction in the materials-intensity of economic activities, specifically a decrease in material requirements per unit output.

  8. 8.

    c Design-for-dismantling and design-for-recycling refers to enabling a high-quality recycling of end-of-life vehicles through recycling-oriented vehicle design which and minimising downcycling through contamination with other materials.

  9. 9.

    a While mechanical recycling is dependent on a range of factors, such as quality feedstocks to achieve high quality recyclates suitable for re-employment for automotive parts, chemical recycling technologies have the potential to consistently produce recyclate that is equivalent to virgin polymers. Given that chemical recycling technologies are still relatively nascent, with only a limited number of commercial-scale plants operating (plants that have scaled for an economic return rather than a proof of concept), and given the uncertainties regarding policy and full value chain economics at scale, there is a big factor of uncertainty attached to chemical recycling.

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    Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.. (2023). Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality. In: China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_4

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