Abstract
In this chapter, we first clarify the research question addressed in this book, “Why is development of new technologies and new businesses continued for a long period of time under a high level of uncertainty?” and explain a background that we selected the history of reverse osmosis membrane development as our research target. We next propose the framework for our analysis, which focuses on four types of uncertainty associated with innovation processes: technological uncertainty, customer uncertainty, competition, uncertainty, and social and organizational uncertainty. We also discuss that breakthrough technologies, initial market, policy support, and company-specific rationales play important roles in dealing with these uncertainties. At the end of this chapter, we explain the overall structure of this book.
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Notes
- 1.
An example of public support for private sector development in Japan is the large-scale project program that the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) promoted from the 1960s onward. Some of these large projects were particularly successful, such as the Super LSI Technology Research Association, which was started in 1976 for semiconductors (Tatsumoto, 2008), while others, such as the Sunshine Project, did not necessarily produce the results that were initially expected (Shimamoto, 2014). Although there is a wide range in terms of results, it is clear that this program had a strong driving force to make companies start R&D. The development of RO membranes, which is the subject of this book, was also supported by the Large Project Program under the title “Research on Desalination and Byproduct Utilization”.
- 2.
- 3.
The “hiding hand” is sometimes viewed negatively as a cause of rather unfavorable outcomes (Flyvbjerg & Sunstein, 2016), whereas Hirschman views it favorably. However, both positions share the point that the “hiding hand” causes projects to be initiated with a high degree of uncertainty, and we believe that this way of thinking can be applied to development activities in the private sector.
- 4.
Such a rationale given by society is an important force in promoting innovation, but the analysis in this book does not include a specific analysis of this point. The reason for this is that the development of RO membranes is aimed at solving a clear social problem, namely, coping with future water shortages, and its existence is self-evident.
- 5.
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2019).
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Fujiwara, M., Aoshima, Y. (2022). Introduction: The Objectives and Research Questions of This Book. In: Mechanisms for Long-Term Innovation. Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, vol 31. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-4896-1_1
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