Not All Roads Lead to Moscow: Transportation Routes and Their Twofold Effect on Regional Cooperation in Central Asia

Abstract

Sharing borders do not always entail regional cooperation, but Central Asia has a clear presence of transnational connections. The physical infrastructure inherited from the Soviet Union can be partly credited with the enablement of intraregional movements. Identifying the roles played by Russia and China behind the development of transportation infrastructure and increased mobility in Central Asia establishes a link between the characters of major powers’ engagement and regionalization of Central Asia. The first section of the chapter assesses the roles of Russia and China in the initiatives aimed at the reduction of non-physical barriers to the movements of goods and people in Central Asia. The second section categorizes the nature of the projects related to the physical transport infrastructure promoted by the two major powers and analyses the effects of these projects. The chapter argues that during the first two decades after the independence, Russia’s policy and Russia-driven initiatives in Central Asia had limited and often adverse impact on regional cooperation. During the same period of time, China’s engagement in Central Asian region was largely ambivalent. Eventually, though, China-led projects in the transportation sector began reconfiguring the region. The analysis suggests that the divergence of interests between the two major powers tends to diminish regionalization effects of their activities. Additionally, an apparent lack of consistency in Russia’s and China’s activities in the transportation sector in Central Asia limits positive effects of their engagement on regional connectivity. This irregularity toward regionalization is more evident in the two major powers’ ambivalence or even reluctance toward the removal of non-physical barriers in Central Asia. This reluctance to contribute toward institutional frameworks for cooperation is grounded in mutual distrust between Russia and China and apprehension toward larger neighbors emanating from the Central Asian states.